How far must Trump slide to tie/lose the White vote?

cMac36
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How far must Trump slide to tie/lose the White vote?

« on: August 04, 2016, 12:35:14 PM »

Romney won white voters 59-39 in 2012.

We have seen a pattern so far where Trump overperforms Mitt w/non-college educated whites and underperforms w/college educated whites. (Mitt won the former group 63-36 and the latter 53-44)

It's gonna be hard. Even recent FOX poll showing Clinton up by 10 shows Trump/Pence up 10 with Whites.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/08/03/fox-news-poll-aug-3-2016/

So the answer is, Trump has to lose the election by about 15 points not to win Whites.

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Sbane
sbane
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Re: How far must Trump slide to tie/lose the White vote?

« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2016, 01:58:23 PM »

I can see him not winning a majority of whites, but not losing the white vote to Clinton.

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cMac36
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Posts: 174

Re: How far must Trump slide to tie/lose the White vote?

« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2016, 05:34:05 PM »

Quote from: cMac36 on August 04, 2016, 12:35:14 PM

So the answer is, Trump has to lose the election by about 15 points not to win Whites.

Looks like I was right. The McClatchy-Marist poll that shows Clinton up 15 has her effectively tied with Whites. Trump 41 Clinton 39

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Kingpoleon
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Re: How far must Trump slide to tie/lose the White vote?

« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2016, 06:30:57 PM »

Here's a 56-39 Clinton win, wherein she wins the white vote 46-44.

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