Unskewing megathread - Latest: Trump will win in landslide because Twitter (user search)
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  Unskewing megathread - Latest: Trump will win in landslide because Twitter (search mode)
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Author Topic: Unskewing megathread - Latest: Trump will win in landslide because Twitter  (Read 4813 times)
Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,038


« on: August 12, 2016, 09:36:33 PM »

That's stupid, because they should really weigh their results by population. It's not like people in Alaska are going to vote at the same numbers as people in California. And what's their phone bill after 50,000 phone calls?

I have questions.

1. Did they use a random-digit dialer? Live interviewer or IVR, and were their known effects controlled?
2. Did they call cell phones or provide Spanish-language options? Blended-frame?
3. What were the timeframe and calling hours? How many attempts per number?
4. How did they randomize within households?
5. What demographic data was collected?
6. Were questions and answers randomized in any way?
7. Was the questionnaire tested for wording and order effects?
8. Was a likely voter screen applied? How hard were leaners pushed?
9. Was the sample weighted, and how? ACS, voter reg, both? Was aging out/in a factor? Was the process simultaneous, iterative, or both?
10. Do they know how to calculate the margin of error for each proportion? What confidence level was used?


More important question: Are they just lying out their asses?

Both of you are missing a VERY important point. They gave each state the same impact in their poll i.e  the poll acts as if all states are the same size.

Wyoming is not as big as California.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,038


« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2016, 06:41:02 PM »

I unskewed the polls for their anti-Clinton bias:

482 - 56

That "unskew" is the dumbest thing I've ever seen. First of all, you have Clinton losing her HOME STATE of Arkansas. Secondly Clinton is a horrible fit for Colorado. She isn't winning it. Lastly I doubt Clinton can win Vermont. Its one of the whitest states in the union and it's mostly rural. It's a perfect fit for Trump.
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