538 Senate Forecast

[Figueira]

So, say the Republicans have a 51 seat majority after 2016.

ND, MT, MO, IN, WV, OH, and WI, while not guaranteed, are all very possible Republican gains.

If it's a 2014 level wave, and all the incumbents (specifically referring to Nelson and Casey here) run again, then I'd say the most likely outcome is the Republicans will gain those seats and those seats only, giving them 58 seats. However, FL, PA, and NJ (if Menendez is running amid a huge scandal) are also real possibilities, and VA is of course a wild card (I think it will stay Democratic but I can't be certain).

So like I said, 60 seats is definitely a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it.

However, 60 isn't really a magic number for Republicans as long as Clinton is President. What I am worried about is if they gain the presidency in 2020 and gain/maintain a 60 seat majority in the Senate, which is certainly possible.

For those of us who don't want our planet to be destroyed by reactionaries, gaining not only a majority but a solid majority in 2016 is crucial.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Republicans are now favored:

Polls-Plus: 50.3%
Polls-Only: 50.0%
Nowcast: 54.5%

[heatcharger]

Republicans are now favored:

Polls-Plus: 50.3%
Polls-Only: 50.0%
Nowcast: 54.5%

That'll come to an end as soon as that NBC/WSJ poll comes in. I believe Polls-plus and the Now-cast are reliant on the presidential race.

[Gass3268]

Republicans are now favored:

Polls-Plus: 50.3%
Polls-Only: 50.0%
Nowcast: 54.5%

Check again, lol

[heatcharger]

Republicans are now favored:

Polls-Plus: 50.3%
Polls-Only: 50.0%
Nowcast: 54.5%

Check again, lol

That generic congressional ballot number was a killer. Why has 538 entered that in but not the topline result for the presidential race?

[Gass3268]

Republicans are now favored:

Polls-Plus: 50.3%
Polls-Only: 50.0%
Nowcast: 54.5%

Check again, lol

That generic congressional ballot number was a killer. Why has 538 entered that in but not the topline result for the presidential race?

He has now.