What about South Carolina?

[ElectionsGuy]

Is sometimes what I think when we talk about Georgia's competitiveness. It gets far less attention then Georgia despite it usually voting only 2-3 points more Republican than it. We often classify it as Safe R and then ignore it, but if Georgia is turning out to be competitive, then why is South Carolina not far behind?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think Trump loses here, but he's bleeding support in my area at least. I could see Hillary coming within low single digits of winning.

[TDAS04]

I agree that South Carolina isn't that far behind Georgia in competitiveness, but Hillary will likely lose both.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It'll take a lot of Republicans either staying home or voting for Johnson..  Possible, but not very likely.

[Xing]

In a large enough wave, South Carolina is possible, but it's pretty inelastic, so Hillary would have to win Independents overwhelmingly, and many Republicans would have to stay home or vote for Johnson.

[evergreenarbor]

South Carolina is Likely R right now, and Clinton could only win if she was up by something like 12 or 13 points nationally.

[Badger]

In a large enough wave, South Carolina is possible, but it's pretty inelastic, so Hillary would have to win Independents overwhelmingly, and many Republicans would have to stay home or vote for Johnson.

This. I think what makes SC so difficult for a Dem breakthrough is it's one of the few states beyond NH and OK where the urban areas tend to be more Republican than usual. (or at least the urban counties).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The I-85 corridor is strongly evangelical Christian.  Bob Jones University is a perfect fit there.

[pppolitics]

Sorry, but South Carolina is not trending D and it's also inelastic.

[Joe Republic]

It did go Dem in the Santos-Vinick race, though.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I think it's been said that the fastest-growing areas are the most Republican, so Democrats shouldn't invest in a presidential win there for some time.

I think it could vote for a Democratic governor in the middle of an unpopular Republican presidency, though.  Sheheen did very well there for a Democrat in 2010.

[OneJ]

Sorry, but South Carolina is not trending D and it's also inelastic.

Are you referring to this year or a specific span of years? According to this map from FiveThirtyEight (Article Title: Why Pennsylvania Could Decide the 2016 Election ), South Carolina is barely trending Democratic.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sorry, but South Carolina is not trending D and it's also inelastic.

I wouldn't be so confident that it's not so much trending D, a la VA and NC, but in this dynamic, I think it very well could.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it's been said that the fastest-growing areas are the most Republican, so Democrats shouldn't invest in a presidential win there for some time.

I think it could vote for a Democratic governor in the middle of an unpopular Republican presidency, though.  Sheheen did very well there for a Democrat in 2010.

That's true in many places though. Probably the fastest growing area in Georgia is the 80% Republican Forsyth County. Charleston and Columbia have potential to trend dem with their population growth. Its true that the larger counties in South Carolina mostly tend to be Republican, which is unique, but that's also the case with New Hampshire (more Republican at least)

Sorry, but South Carolina is not trending D and it's also inelastic.

It appears to be trending D as much as Georgia is, that is to say, not much. Here's the margins relative to the country (from 2000 to 2012)

SC: R+16  R+15  R+16  R+14
GA: R+12  R+14  R+12  R+12

[dspNY]

Stays GOP but probably narrows to 5 points. If SC ever went Democratic there would be a 400+ EV blowout. SC is a very inelastic state

[LLR]

This is exactly what I've been saying for the past 5 months.