Will Gary Johnson crack 5% of the PV?

[TDAS04]

What do you think?

[amdcpus]

Yes. I'm guessing 6%-8%.

[President Johnson]

No, I guess 3 or 4%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Too soon to tell. Could happen, but I think the current polls overestimate him.

[Senator-elect Spark]

No

[Human]

lol no

His ceiling is 3% and his floor is 1.5%.

[DKrol]

I'm saying 6%-8% if not included in the debates, 14-16% if included.

[Crumpets]

No. He'll be lucky to get 2%.

[Virginiá]

If there was any cycle where that could happen, it seems like this would be it.

However, as many have stated before, the polls seem to overstate support for 3rd parties - sometimes by quite a bit: http://www.gallup.com/poll/155537/little-support-third-party-candidates-2012-election.aspx

Looks like, at least historically, they end up getting about half (or less) of what their polls stated. Though, I'm only looking at this one page and no other data.

Voted no.

[cMac36]

He is on track to miss the ballot in major states like NY, PA, and OH.

https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

As such I'm compelled to answer "no".

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Too soon to tell. If he somehow makes it into the debates then yet. I could also see his support cratering and him getting less than 2% if he doesn't raise money or make the debates.

[pbrower2a]

He's going to pick off lots of orthodox Republicans who consider Donald Trump a reckless demagogue but still can't vote for Hillary Clinton.   

[amdcpus]

He is on track to miss the ballot in major states like NY, PA, and OH.

https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

As such I'm compelled to answer "no".

Turned in quintuple the amount needed in PA, double for NY and currently has double the amount needed in Ohio. So, no you are completely wrong.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I am guessing yes but just barley.

[cMac36]

He is on track to miss the ballot in major states like NY, PA, and OH.

https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

As such I'm compelled to answer "no".

Turned in quintuple the amount needed in PA, double for NY and currently has double the amount needed in Ohio. So, no you are completely wrong.

Good to know, though it is not me that is completely wrong, that link is from the Libertarian Party's own website.

If your information is true Johnson has every chance to hit 5% nationally.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

He'll be on par with Anderson's performance in 1980, except with his stronger states being in the West and not in the Northeast.

Utah will still be an interesting state to watch. I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson wins some counties. I'm not sure he'll win the state without Romney's endorsement though.

[Desroko]

No. Answering third party in a poll is a free move, which is inflates their standing.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He is on track to miss the ballot in major states like NY, PA, and OH.

https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

As such I'm compelled to answer "no".

Turned in quintuple the amount needed in PA, double for NY and currently has double the amount needed in Ohio. So, no you are completely wrong.

Good to know, though it is not me that is completely wrong, that link is from the Libertarian Party's own website.

That map is only updated when a state officially notifies the LP that the signatures they turned in were valid. That can take a week or two as in many states there is a time frame in which anyone can challenge the validity of the petitions.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think 3% in the end, but I sure hope he does.

[136or142]

I predict he'll get 30% of the vote and end up ahead of Trump.

[OwlRhetoric]

I still think third party numbers will weaken. He'll end up in Nader 2000 range, 2-3%, and Jill Stein maybe 1.5% max.

[Breton Racer]

Yes, maybe 7-12% (respectable)

[Badger]

IF an angel (i.e. the Koch Brothers) invest heavily in a nationwide name recognition and positive ad campaign, and IF it works well enough in time for Johnson and Weld to attend the debates, and IF they run a decent campaign without any major gaffes (likely individually, but watch for Ayn Rand craziness from state/regional LP directors talking to the media), then yes, they'll probably do about as well as Anderson in 80, with UT probably being their strongest state.

As none of that seems likely, I have to say no.

No. Answering third party in a poll is a free move, which is inflates their standing.

Word. Don't trust any poll that reads a third party candidate as an option other than "volunteered", unless they're literally to the same level of competitiveness as Lieberman in CT or Ventura in MN.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Far too early to tell. It's August.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Probably not--I have him pegged at getting 3-4% nationally, breaking 5% in a few states, but not getting to 10% anywhere.