New CBS/YouGov polls out later today
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 10:58:34 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  New CBS/YouGov polls out later today		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: New CBS/YouGov polls out later today  (Read 1122 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 07, 2016, 01:05:50 AM »
For AZ, NV and VA.
Logged
Bakersfield Uber Alles
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,737
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2016, 01:31:12 AM »
« Edited: August 07, 2016, 01:33:38 AM by Ser Fubart of House Solman »

I was surprised not to see them and then I remembered that you're about 8-9 hours ahead of my time (it's still Aug 6th in CA).

As to the contents of the polls, I'm guessing that Hillary will lead by 10 or so in NV. AZ and NC should be close (Clinton +3 to Trump +3). Johnson should get a bit more than 10% in NV and AZ; he'll get somewhere between 5% and 10% in NC.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2016, 01:39:02 AM »
Thank God. I'm already in poll withdrawal.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2016, 01:42:17 AM »
« Edited: August 07, 2016, 08:13:35 AM by Interlocutor »
VA & AZ polls are gonna tell a lot about the Clinton campaign's next moves

Predictions:
AZ: Trump +3
NV: Clinton +4
VA: Clinton +9
Logged
cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,612
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2016, 01:47:27 AM »
Quote from: Ser Fubart of House Solman on August 07, 2016, 01:31:12 AM

I was surprised not to see them and then I remembered that you're about 8-9 hours ahead of my time (it's still Aug 6th in CA).

As to the contents of the polls, I'm guessing that Hillary will lead by 10 or so in NV. AZ and NC should be close (Clinton +3 to Trump +3). Johnson should get a bit more than 10% in NV and AZ; he'll get somewhere between 5% and 10% in NC.

Sounds about right, though I'm still surprised by how narrow Clinton's lead in NV has been for the past few weeks/months. NV was an easy win for Obama in 2008 and 2012; I remember Karl Rove looking at the 2008 returns and saying that he thought the GOP wouldn't win NV again for decades (or something like that). 10 points is good, but I keep feeling like it should be 15.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2016, 02:32:08 AM »
AZ will be interesting, and I'm very interested to see what VA will show. I'm expecting this poll (like most) to understate Clinton's advantage in NV.
Logged
Bakersfield Uber Alles
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,737
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2016, 03:26:51 AM »
Quote from: Ser Fubart of House Solman on August 07, 2016, 01:31:12 AM

I was surprised not to see them and then I remembered that you're about 8-9 hours ahead of my time (it's still Aug 6th in CA).

As to the contents of the polls, I'm guessing that Hillary will lead by 10 or so in NV. AZ and NC should be close (Clinton +3 to Trump +3). Johnson should get a bit more than 10% in NV and AZ; he'll get somewhere between 5% and 10% in NC.

Not sure why I read NC and not VA. In VA, I'm guessing that Clinton will have a solid lead. Probably around +10 or so. Johnson should be in the high single digits to low double digits (7% to 12%).
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,358
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2016, 07:24:07 AM »
Does CBS/YouGov do Spanish calls also? If so then I'd expect Clinton +9 in VA, Trump +1 in AZ, and Clinton +4 in NV.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2016, 07:29:44 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on August 07, 2016, 07:24:07 AM
Does CBS/YouGov do Spanish calls also? If so then I'd expect Clinton +9 in VA, Trump +1 in AZ, and Clinton +4 in NV.

Yougov is an online pollster.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2016, 07:31:19 AM »
My guess:

Trump +2 in AZ
Clinton +7 in VA
Clinton +4 in NV

McCain +5
Heck +1
Logged
Senator Cris
Cris
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,613
Italy


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2016, 07:37:00 AM »
My guess:

AZ: Clinton + 1
VA: Clinton + 9
NV: Clinton + 8
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2016, 07:45:02 AM »
Predictions

AZ: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +12
NV: Clinton +13
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,358
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2016, 07:49:35 AM »
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 07, 2016, 07:45:02 AM
Predictions

AZ: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +12
NV: Clinton +13

You're setting yourself up for a letdown. If it's an online pollster they'll probably underpoll Spanish speakers.
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2016, 07:52:35 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on August 07, 2016, 07:49:35 AM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 07, 2016, 07:45:02 AM
Predictions

AZ: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +12
NV: Clinton +13

You're setting yourself up for a letdown. If it's an online pollster they'll probably underpoll Spanish speakers.

OK, then

AZ: Trump +5
VA: Clinton +7
NV: Clinton +2

How's that?
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2016, 07:53:53 AM »
« Edited: August 07, 2016, 08:16:12 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »
Meh what the hell...

AZ: Trump +3
NV: Clinton +5
VA: Clinton +8

Based largely on Latino underpolling
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2016, 08:00:23 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on August 07, 2016, 07:49:35 AM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 07, 2016, 07:45:02 AM
Predictions

AZ: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +12
NV: Clinton +13

You're setting yourself up for a letdown. If it's an online pollster they'll probably underpoll Spanish speakers.

Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,840
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2016, 08:01:11 AM »
Predictions

VA: Clinton +10
NV: Clinton +7
AZ: Tied
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2016, 08:01:56 AM »
Anyway, my predictions:

AZ: Clinton+1
NV: Clinton+8
VA: Clinton+9

That would be in line with a national C+8 lead.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,358
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2016, 08:07:17 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 07, 2016, 08:00:23 AM
Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.

I'm skeptical because back in June they released a Colorado poll with only Clinton +1, which looks hilarious in retrospect.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2016, 08:10:29 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on August 07, 2016, 08:07:17 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 07, 2016, 08:00:23 AM
Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.

I'm skeptical because back in June they released a Colorado poll with only Clinton +1, which looks hilarious in retrospect.

Didn't Trump lock up the GOP nomination at that point and Hillary aired ads only later there ?
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2016, 08:10:50 AM »
AZ: Clinton +38
NV: Sanders +5
VA: Kaine +12.86533267
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2016, 08:13:14 AM »
Quote from: LLR on August 07, 2016, 08:10:50 AM
AZ: Clinton +38
NV: Sanders +5
VA: Kaine +12.86533267

Oh, look, a wild edgy. Wink
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2016, 08:15:25 AM »

That's VeRy Rude,  friend. These were my HONEST predictons! Jus ask my hero STATESPOLLL
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,858
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2016, 08:17:55 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on August 07, 2016, 08:07:17 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 07, 2016, 08:00:23 AM
Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.

I'm skeptical because back in June they released a Colorado poll with only Clinton +1, which looks hilarious in retrospect.

Spanish-speakers can and do use the Internet. The only groups that I expect to see under-represented on the Internet are under-educated people, whatever their ethnicity. The Internet requires some modicum of literacy.  
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,348
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2016, 08:35:08 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on August 07, 2016, 08:17:55 AM
Quote from: heatcharger on August 07, 2016, 08:07:17 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 07, 2016, 08:00:23 AM
Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.

I'm skeptical because back in June they released a Colorado poll with only Clinton +1, which looks hilarious in retrospect.

Spanish-speakers can and do use the Internet. The only groups that I expect to see under-represented on the Internet are under-educated people, whatever their ethnicity. The Internet requires some modicum of literacy.  
Not sure. There are a ton of idiots on the internet.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 13 queries.