What would Obama III's margin over Trump be right now?

[Lyin' Steve]

So much discussion has revolved around how Hillary is a very flawed candidate, it's easy for Trump to say "I'm not crooked Hillary", any other R would have crushed her, she can't pamper millennials enough to keep them from voting third party to feed their egos, etc.

Obama has an approval rating in the 50s and doesn't have the integrity issues that Hillary suffers from.  Would he really be crushing Trump right now or would the election be about the same?  Surely Trump would have found some Obama equivalent of "crooked Hillary", although so far he hasn't been very successful with making his Obama attacks stick ("this is the worst president in my or anyone's lifetime" isn't particularly catchy).

[IceSpear]

Multiple polls have shown him doing a few points better. No, he wouldn't be winning by 20+ points, nor would anyone. The country is too polarized.

[Badger]

Multiple polls have shown him doing a few points better. No, he wouldn't be winning by 20+ points, nor would anyone. The country is too polarized.

This. Though he might have a chance at cracking 10 points.

[Maxwell]

I'd give him a solid 14-15 points.

Before any clown says it, he'd also be leading Kasich (probably the best general election choice) by at least 5 points.

[evergreenarbor]

Probably Obama +12 or +13, assuming that Trump makes the same gaffes.

[Mr. Smith]

4-6

Hillary is getting as far as she is in this polarized climate because she's playing Billy C's game of out-right-winging the right-wing side. Instead of economics and law-and-order, it's foreign policy that the game is being played.

But Obama being the closest thing to a peacenik since Jimmeh, wouldn't have that advantage. This in turn would turn him into a chew-toy again ala 2014/2010 and 2012 in the Atlas Blue states. He's really only where he is now because the right-wing machine aren't attacking and obstructing him non-stop.

And of course, the old Atlas social lefty favorite "Obama is a black you see" is quite appropriate here given the BLM backlash.

[Maxwell]

People keep saying that she's running to Trump's right on foreign policy. Really, she's running non-crazy to Trump's crazy (and stupid).

[politicallefty]

I voted 11-13%, pretty similar to his current approval ratings. I think President Obama would have loved to run against Trump. If he held his own in all debates (unlike the first debate in 2012) and maintained a vastly superior ground game, I have little doubt he would defeat Trump by double-digits in November.

[morgieb]

Think there's too much hatred/polarisiation for him to be doing substantially better, but he's more liked so he'd have a better chance of pulling in some people who value honesty and perhaps some #BernieorBust types.

Would be interested to see how Biden would do against Trump though. Obviously it's a hypothetical but I think he could undercut any advantages Trump may have over the working-class.....and being a white man it would be harder for hate to build up in the same way it did against Obama or Hillary.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I'd say a similar size but somewhat different subset of voters would be tired of Obama (either because they hate Obamacare, are racist, or just don't like the idea of a 3rd term.) So probably about the same margin.

[Antonio the Sixth]

15 points at least.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'd give him a solid 14-15 points.

Before any clown says it, he'd also be leading Kasich (probably the best general election choice) by at least 5 points.

Kasich would beat Obama or Hillary easily , Obama approval are a reaction to Trump and Hillary and how bad choices they are

[President Johnson]

At least ten points ahead.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

It is hard to predict because of Americans' long-standing resistance to breaking the two-term tradition.  FDR was the only President to break it, and the 22nd Amendment was easily ratified, even at a time when FDR was well-thought of. 

If there were no 22nd Amendment, Obama would be up about 7 points.  That's all.  It's also possible that Obama's Approval Rating would not be as high as it is if he were an active candidate for re-election.  Had Obama not been the four (4) year Lame Duck that the 22nd Amendment makes our two-term Presidents in their second terms, he may have governed differently over the last four (4) years.  Hillary Clinton may have remained Secretary of State for the whole time.  That's one example of what could have been different.  Biden could have opted out of a 3rd VP term; that would have been another variable.  A primary challenger could have emerged, using the third term as an issue; that's another variable to consider.  On the other hand, Obama would be an incumbent President, will all the advantages of incumbency.  How Trump would have appeared versus an incumbent President, even Obama, is another variable.  There would still be a "trashing of the President" on the part of Trump that still does not play well with some voters.

[Yank2133]

I'd give him a solid 14-15 points.

Before any clown says it, he'd also be leading Kasich (probably the best general election choice) by at least 5 points.

Kasich would beat Obama or Hillary easily , Obama approval are a reaction to Trump and Hillary and how bad choices they are

Lmao, Obama would trash Kasich, Clinton would as well.

Seriously don't understand why people on here think he is some strong candidate.

[pbrower2a]

Eisenhower-scale victory. One could almost invert an Eisenhower victory map and one would get Obama 2016.  Obama is that good, and Trump is that bad.

[pbrower2a]

I'd give him a solid 14-15 points.

Before any clown says it, he'd also be leading Kasich (probably the best general election choice) by at least 5 points.

Kasich would beat Obama or Hillary easily , Obama approval are a reaction to Trump and Hillary and how bad choices they are

Lmao, Obama would trash Kasich, Clinton would as well.

Seriously don't understand why people on here think he is some strong candidate.

Kasich wouldn't be making the same mistakes. It would be a closer race than what I project after the Party Conventions.

[LLR]

Obama would be losing to Trump.

LOL

[LLR]

Probably +10 or so. He'd win the election by 5 or 6. And get ~96% of black voters.

[pbrower2a]

Obama would be losing to Trump.

Polls that I have seen for states not solid R show a preference over 50% for Obama over Trump.

 

[Yank2133]

I'd give him a solid 14-15 points.

Before any clown says it, he'd also be leading Kasich (probably the best general election choice) by at least 5 points.

Kasich would beat Obama or Hillary easily , Obama approval are a reaction to Trump and Hillary and how bad choices they are

Lmao, Obama would trash Kasich, Clinton would as well.

Seriously don't understand why people on here think he is some strong candidate.

Kasich wouldn't be making the same mistakes. It would be a closer race than what I project after the Party Conventions.

It wouldn't be as bad as Trump, but he would still be down 5-7 points against Obama. The only thing Kasich has going for him is that no one knows anything about him, that changes when GE season kicks off for real.

[Simfan34]

I'd give him a solid 14-15 points.

Before any clown says it, he'd also be leading Kasich (probably the best general election choice) by at least 5 points.

Kasich would beat Obama or Hillary easily , Obama approval are a reaction to Trump and Hillary and how bad choices they are

Lmao, Obama would trash Kasich, Clinton would as well.

Seriously don't understand why people on here think he is some strong candidate.

That is ing bullsh**t and you know it.

[Sir Mohamed]

Mr. President would lead the mentally-ill fake billionaire by 10-12 points.

[Yank2133]

I'd give him a solid 14-15 points.

Before any clown says it, he'd also be leading Kasich (probably the best general election choice) by at least 5 points.

Kasich would beat Obama or Hillary easily , Obama approval are a reaction to Trump and Hillary and how bad choices they are

Lmao, Obama would trash Kasich, Clinton would as well.

Seriously don't understand why people on here think he is some strong candidate.

That is ing bullsh**t and you know it.

It is the truth.
 

[ProudModerate2]

Right now Obama would have an RCP average between +9 to +11, over the orange-haired clown.