Which race is most likely to be the Democrats' 5th Pickup?

[ShadowRocket]

So the Democrats' path back to the majority in the Senate starts in Illinois and Wisconsin, and likely continues through New Hampshire and Indiana. Which one of the remaining competitive seats is most likely to put them back on top?

[Gass3268]

Pennsylvania is already Lean D so...

Ohio will remain close as long as Clinton is leading in the state.

Florida is obviously difficult as there will be a good chunk of Cuban Clinton/Rubio voters.

Arizona, Missouri, and North Carolina could be competative.

Right now I'm guessing that the Democrats get 6. IL, IN, NH, PA, WI plus one Wild Card out of AZ, FL, NC, MO and OH. Then again, the way things are going I wouldn't be shocked if the Democrats win all 5 and get +9 from this cycle.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Pennsylvania

[Kingpoleon]

IMO, the most likely order of pick ups are:

Wisconsin
Indiana
Florida
Pennsylvania
Missouri
Illinois

Kirk is a very strong incumbent bringing in surrogates like Kasich to campaign and fundraise for him.

[Xing]

Pennsylvania or Florida.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Probably Florida it is one of the 6 Republican held Tossup races. Rubio's seat is not as safe as some hear think.

Probable order of pick ups/chance of winning
Wisconsin 85%
Illinois 70%
NH 53%
Indiana 53%
Florida 50%
Ohio 48%
Pennsylvania 45%
Arizona 40%
North Carolina 40%
Iowa 29%
Georgia 15%
All others less then 15% chance of happening

[IceSpear]

If Dems need a 5th seat, they're already screwed.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Dems need a 5th seat, they're already screwed.

50-50 isn't really a true majority, since everything needs 51 votes. Want your pet policy or justice - better hope voting on it fits into Kaine's schedule.

[Orser67]

If Dems need a 5th seat, they're already screwed.

Even if Clinton/Kaine win, I really hope Dems get that fifth seat so that the Senate majority doesn't depend on a 2017 special election in Virginia.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Toomey is strong but not strong enough to offset a near double-digit win in PA. IMO at this point the Dems path to 50 is as follows:

Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Indiana
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Florida
Ohio

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

If Dems need a 5th seat, they're already screwed.

50-50 isn't really a true majority, since everything needs 51 votes. Want your pet policy or justice - better hope voting on it fits into Kaine's schedule.

I think that's the point IceSpear is making -- if the climate is such that a 5th seat pickup is questionable the Democrats are performance-wise in trouble considering how much of a mess this year has been for the GOP.

[President Johnson]

Pennsylvania; Toomey is trailing in most polls now.

[IceSpear]

If Dems need a 5th seat, they're already screwed.

50-50 isn't really a true majority, since everything needs 51 votes. Want your pet policy or justice - better hope voting on it fits into Kaine's schedule.

I think that's the point IceSpear is making -- if the climate is such that a 5th seat pickup is questionable the Democrats are performance-wise in trouble considering how much of a mess this year has been for the GOP.

Nah, I was saying that in a universe where a 5th pickup is needed (i.e. a Trump victory), we almost certainly will not be getting a 5th, and maybe not even a 4th or 3rd.

And I'm sure Kaine can clear his schedule if need be. Orser actually has a much better point about having a 5th seat as a safety net for the Virginia special election.

[Mister Mets]

If Dems need a 5th seat, they're already screwed.

The Republican is consistently leading in the open race in Nevada.

[IceSpear]

If Dems need a 5th seat, they're already screwed.

The Republican is consistently leading in the open race in Nevada.

In the last couple polls his lead is 1 point and 3 points. Yeah, I'm not too concerned. The race is a toss up, but those tiny leads hardly make Heck the favorite.