Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Louisiana

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

Safe Clinton: 92
Likely Clinton: 0
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 35
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 33

Clinton: 101
Trump: 74
Toss-Up: 35

Predictions

Clinton: 136
Trump: 74

Louisiana: Safe R, 58-40 Trump.

[tinman64]

Safe R.

Trump 56
Clinton 41
Others 3

[evergreenarbor]

Safe R.

Trump: 57
Clinton: 41
Johnson: 1
Others: 1

[OwlRhetoric]

Safe (R) for this one.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Should be safe Republican. Hillary may do a point or two better than Obama in 2012, but that's probably about it. I expect it to be called for Trump at poll close.

[Xing]

Safe R, Trump wins 57-41.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Likley R
Trump 56-43-1

[morgieb]

Went slightly left-field putting it as "only" Likely R, partially because of what happened in the Vitter/Edwards race, so I think there's maybe an outside chance could reject Trump. Don't think it's likely though.

He wins 55-42-3 or something.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Safe R.

58-41-1

[dspNY]

Safe R

Trump 57
Clinton 40
Others 3

[President Johnson]

Safe R.

Trump: 57%
Hillary: 39%

[Gass3268]

Safe Trump, but closer to Likely Trump than Super Safe Trump.

[Kingpoleon]

Safe R. Trump 60-38.

[Suburbia]

Safe R, Trump wins 57-41.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Lean R

Trump 52%
Clinton 46%
Others 2%

Louisiana went for Clinton 52-40 in 1996.  What has changed since then is that the Cajun Catholics have swung to the GOP; prior to that, they had become the key swing voter group at the Presidential level and the folks that kept local politics in Louisiana Democratic.

I predict something of a comeback for Hillary amongst the Cajun Catholics.  Not enough to win, but enough to improve.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean R

Trump 52%
Clinton 46%
Others 2%

Louisiana went for Clinton 52-40 in 1996.  What has changed since then is that the Cajun Catholics have swung to the GOP; prior to that, they had become the key swing voter group at the Presidential level and the folks that kept local politics in Louisiana Democratic.

I predict something of a comeback for Hillary amongst the Cajun Catholics.  Not enough to win, but enough to improve.

I don't really see a reason for a comeback. Much of cajun country is rural, not very high income or education levels, and pretty socially conservative.

[White Trash]

Louisiana ain't flipping. Not even a '64-esque blowout would be enough. Louisiana will be one of Trump's better states, he'll get between 57-61. It's quite possible that Clinton could use Edward's popularity to get it down a few points, but there'd be no reason to do that.

[Wisconsin+17]

Louisiana is one I keep going back and forth on. Like AK, should be Safe R, but the demographics open up possibilities.

Will go "tossup".

[White Trash]

Lean R

Trump 52%
Clinton 46%
Others 2%

Louisiana went for Clinton 52-40 in 1996.  What has changed since then is that the Cajun Catholics have swung to the GOP; prior to that, they had become the key swing voter group at the Presidential level and the folks that kept local politics in Louisiana Democratic.

I predict something of a comeback for Hillary amongst the Cajun Catholics.  Not enough to win, but enough to improve.

I don't really see a reason for a comeback. Much of cajun country is rural, not very high income or education levels, and pretty socially conservative.

Edwards made good inroads with Cajun country, doing decently well on the coast and in the Lafayette area. Clinton might do marginally better than Obama with us coonasses, but it won't be enough to really make a difference.

[DINGO Joe]

A Clinton improvement would follow more a John Bel Edwards template than a Cajun country one.  Basically, metro New Orleans, Baton Rouge and to a lesser extent Shreveport and Lafayette.  Almost certainly the areas with the most white college graduates too.

At least on paper, Louisiana should be a little more D than in 2012.  Voter Registration changes since 2012 are 12,000 more whites, 37,000 more A-A and 10,000 more other.  Also, oddly enough, the greatest increase in white registration is in Orleans Parish (8500 more) which is probably still part of the post-Katrina rebound.

53-44-3

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean R

Trump 52%
Clinton 46%
Others 2%

Louisiana went for Clinton 52-40 in 1996.  What has changed since then is that the Cajun Catholics have swung to the GOP; prior to that, they had become the key swing voter group at the Presidential level and the folks that kept local politics in Louisiana Democratic.

I predict something of a comeback for Hillary amongst the Cajun Catholics.  Not enough to win, but enough to improve.

I don't really see a reason for a comeback. Much of cajun country is rural, not very high income or education levels, and pretty socially conservative.

Edwards made good inroads with Cajun country, doing decently well on the coast and in the Lafayette area. Clinton might do marginally better than Obama with us coonasses, but it won't be enough to really make a difference.

Edwards is nowhere near Clinton though. He's actually conservative on the issues that he needs to be.
Although valid comparisons can be made between Vitter and Trump.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Safe R, Trump 57-40

[heatcharger]

Safe R.

Trump - 55%
Clinton - 42%
Others - 3%

[peterthlee]

Safe R-Strong
Trump 55-43-2