This thread is for reposting some old posts so we can make fun of the people's inaccurate view of how things will turn out.
2016:Talent/Sununu (R) 53%
H. Ford/Obama 46%
Obama for VP?! lol I'm assuming you're referring to Barack Obama...who is currently running for the Senate seat here in Illinois.
Why do you think anyone would have him as their VP? Obama barely has a chance winning in Illinois...why would people care about him in 2016?
Well at least he got right that Obama would have no chance of being on the ticket in 2016.
Here are a couple from that same thread from opebo back when his avatar was R-MO:
2004: Bush/Cheney over Kerry/Edwards
2008: Edwards/Ford over (Jeb) Bush/Rice
2012: Edwards/Ford over Frist/Talent
I like your prediction, the only criticism I have of it is that I predict the 2008 election will be taking place during a boom, so that might give Jeb a boost (or Kerry).
The growth rates in the South and West won't continue forever. Eventually they will slow down and the Northeast and Midwest, once they are able to better diversify their economies and emphasize their strengths, will catch back up again in growth rates. It's just a matter of them adjusting, it is already happening on a small scale and will continue to expand.
And to the extent that population does shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West, it will make the South and West more competitive; as liberal voters from the North move south, they'll take their political allegiances with them. It's already happened to a large extent in Florida, and eventually states such as Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia will become swing states too.
There is no way that I can see that either party will achieve dominance. I think that the Presidency, Senate, and House will all be very competitive. Unless there is some major event skewing things one way or the other, I think that both parties will adapt to the pulse of the swing voters while securing their base, and thus we'll continue to see very close elections for quite some time.
Oh I think you already saw some evidence of this in the 1990's - lower growth and higher unemployment on the West Coast, surprisingly good conditions in what used to be called the Rust Belt. That term was more appropriate in the 1980's. Missouri for example is quite vibrant. In general business and individuals will continue to seek out conservative, lightly taxed locales.
