Which demographic change should Republicans fear most?

[Redban]

1). The approaching minority-majority:

By 2043, whites will be a minority, as Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics will outnumber them; and non-whites have always voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats: 83% voted for Obama in 2012, 86% voted for Obama in 2008, 78% voted for Kerry in 2004, 80% voted for Gore in 2000, 82% voted for Clinton in 1996, and 77% voted for Clinton in 1992.

If those numbers hold, then the Republicans will, as early as 2028, lose by double-digits every election.

2). The rise of millennials

The number of millennials now match the number of Baby Boomers, making them the largest generation currently. Related to #1, millennials are the most diverse generation in American history --- whereas nearly 80% of Baby Boomers are white, just a shade over 50% of millennials are white; and non-whites, again, overwhelmingly vote Democrat.

Additionally, studies show that millennials are liberal on LGBT rights, marijuana legalization, socialism, and immigration; and they are more likely to be educated, more likely to be unmarried, and more likely to be atheist or agnostic. A large majority of millennials also voted enthusiastically for Obama in 2008 and in 2012.

3). The increase in educated voters

Right now, a little over 30% of Americans over 25 have a bachelor's degree, a number that has been growing steadily and rapidly. This group tends to vote Democrat, especially those who secure post-graduate degrees --- party-identification statistics show that 52% of people with a college degree or more identify as Democrat (vs 40% as Republican).

Admittedly, Romney didn't do so badly with college graduates. However, McCain lost this group in 2008, and Donald Trump in 2016 has been aggravating this problem.

4). The decline of married households

Republicans usually win married voters, and Democrats usually win unmarried voters (esp. single-women) -- Romney won 55% married voters while losing 66% unmarried voters; McCain won 56% married voters while losing 65% unmarried voters; Bush 2004 won 60% married voters while losing 60% unmarried voters; and Bush 2000 won 57% married voters while losing 59% unmarried voters.

The problem with those numbers is that marriage has been declining steadily and rapidly for decades. In 1960, 72% of families were married. Today, it's just a shade over 50%, a numbed padded by the 65% of married households in the Silent Generation and by the 48% of married households in the Baby Boomers' generation. Only 36% of Generation X'ers and 26% of millennials are married, and polls show that as much as 40% of people currently believe that marriage is obsolete.

5). The decreased religious participation

The core of the Republican Party consists of religious people. 60% of people who attend church weekly voted for Romney while 63% who seldom or never attend voted against him; 55% of people who attend church weekly voted for McCain while 62% who seldom or never attend voted against; 63% of people who attend church weekly voted for Bush 2004 while 60% who seldom or never attend voted against.

However, as with marriage, religious participation is declining -- recent studies show that Christianity declined 7.8% from 2007 - 2014 while atheism and agnosticism has grown 6.7%. The latter is growing solely on the backs of millennials and Generation X'ers, as 35% does not believe in God. In contrast, only 10% (or thereabouts) of those in the Baby Boomer and Silent Generation is atheist or agnostic.

[LLR]

All five. If I have to rank them:

1
3
5
2
4

[progressive85]

1 and 2 are toxic.  The Republicans are a 19th century party in a 21st century country.  That's going to destroy them if the party doesn't reinvent itself.

[Stranger in a strange land]

2 & 5 are closely related: a lot of millennials were permanently turned off from both the GOP and organized religion by the social authoritarianism of the Religious Right and the Bush Era Republican Party.

[Redban]

[hopper]

1 and 2 are toxic.  The Republicans are a 19th century party in a 21st century country.  That's going to destroy them if the party doesn't reinvent itself.

More like 20th Century Party. Romney policies that he ran on in 2012 would have been mainstream in the 1980's and 1990's but not in the 2010's.

[hopper]

[

I am surprised that only 36% of Gen Xers are married. Thats pretty low but I am one of the 64% of Gen Xers that isn't married.

[Virginiá]

1 -> 2 -> 3 -> [4 or 5, not sure]

Republicans have so efficiently alienated minorities that making inroads with them is going to take a long time, and gains probably won't be quick even when they do start making them. This is going to make the future very painful for them in numerous critical states.

The growth of the Millennial generation in terms of the share of the electorate will begin hurting more and more downballot, but it can be partially offset at the national level if the GOP can win over in large numbers Gen Z voters (right now, seems unlikely given the diversity issue at the very least). There are many red states where Millennials are heavily tilted towards the GOP, but blue wall states and newer/emerging battlegrounds like VA/GA/AZ/etc show a heavily pro-Democratic Millennial bloc emerging and 10 - 15 years from now (or less), it'll make those states either completely out of reach or even more difficult to capture. Millennials in FL, NC, PA, GA and AZ, for instance, are substantially tilted towards Democrats and that will move them off the map for some time if no progress is made in winning them/newer generations over. Such is the case in various other Democratic states right now.


Those two go hand in hand I think, and they seem to be the most alarming issues facing the Republican party right now. They really have to fix those problems soon or risk being exiled into the political wilderness for god knows how long.

[LLR]

[

I am surprised that only 36% of Gen Xers are married. Thats pretty low but I am one of the 64% of Gen Xers that isn't married.

36% of them were in 1997.
It's larger now, of course.

[IceSpear]

1, since they've essentially given up on trying to win anyone besides whites.

[RINO Tom]

1, since they've essentially given up on trying to win anyone besides whites.

I'll need to see a non-Trump election to see ANY evidence to suggest college-eudcated Whites aren't a solidly Republican voting bloc, seeing as they, well, vote solidly Republican and have for a long, long time.

[Suburbia]

1, since they've essentially given up on trying to win anyone besides whites.

Democrats have a issue with white voters, too. Let's not pretend that Democrats don't have challenges as well. If the party keeps up the social justice talk, some college educated whites may be turned off by the party.

[hopper]

1, since they've essentially given up on trying to win anyone besides whites.

Democrats have a issue with white voters, too. Let's not pretend that Democrats don't have challenges as well. If the party keeps up the social justice talk, some college educated whites may be turned off by the party.

Yeah but the SJW movement is kinda fringe though. You have a point though in that the White Vote killed the Dems in the 2010 and 2014 Mid-Term Elections.

[hopper]

3). The increase in educated voters

Right now, a little over 30% of Americans over 25 have a bachelor's degree, a number that has been growing steadily and rapidly. This group tends to vote Democrat, especially those who secure post-graduate degrees --- party-identification statistics show that 52% of people with a college degree or more identify as Democrat (vs 40% as Republican).

Admittedly, Romney didn't do so badly with college graduates. However, McCain lost this group in 2008, and Donald Trump in 2016 has been aggravating this problem.

4). The decline of married households

Republicans usually win married voters, and Democrats usually win unmarried voters (esp. single-women) -- Romney won 55% married voters while losing 66% unmarried voters; McCain won 56% married voters while losing 65% unmarried voters; Bush 2004 won 60% married voters while losing 60% unmarried voters; and Bush 2000 won 57% married voters while losing 59% unmarried voters.

The problem with those numbers is that marriage has been declining steadily and rapidly for decades. In 1960, 72% of families were married. Today, it's just a shade over 50%, a numbed padded by the 65% of married households in the Silent Generation and by the 48% of married households in the Baby Boomers' generation. Only 36% of Generation X'ers and 26% of millennials are married, and polls show that as much as 40% of people currently believe that marriage is obsolete.
[

Basically 3 and 4.

3.) Because White Women College Graduates don't like Mexicans being called Rapists and Drug Dealers and Trump is trailing with White Women College Graduates right now per Pew Research.

4.) Basically this is the problem just looking at the numbers from the 2012 Presidential Election Obama won because of Single non-married Latina and Black Women. Black Women are the most likely to never get married out of Black, Latina, Asian and White Women but yet they are the most politically active group. The GOP has some work to do!

[Santander]

5 > 1 > 4 > 2 > 3

3 is not a problem at all, but education in this country should require students to learn about the organizing beliefs of Western civilization and contemplate infinity.

[BaldEagle1991]

1). The approaching minority-majority:

By 2043, whites will be a minority, as Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics will outnumber them; and non-whites have always voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats: 83% voted for Obama in 2012, 86% voted for Obama in 2008, 78% voted for Kerry in 2004, 80% voted for Gore in 2000, 82% voted for Clinton in 1996, and 77% voted for Clinton in 1992.

If those numbers hold, then the Republicans will, as early as 2028, lose by double-digits every election.

This.

The rest the GOP seems to have adjusted their platform to already. However the need to appeal to minorities is a problem they seem to not care to fix.

[hopper]

1 -> 2 -> 3 -> [4 or 5, not sure]

Republicans have so efficiently alienated minorities that making inroads with them is going to take a long time, and gains probably won't be quick even when they do start making them. This is going to make the future very painful for them in numerous critical states.

The growth of the Millennial generation in terms of the share of the electorate will begin hurting more and more downballot, but it can be partially offset at the national level if the GOP can win over in large numbers Gen Z voters (right now, seems unlikely given the diversity issue at the very least). There are many red states where Millennials are heavily tilted towards the GOP, but blue wall states and newer/emerging battlegrounds like VA/GA/AZ/etc show a heavily pro-Democratic Millennial bloc emerging and 10 - 15 years from now (or less), it'll make those states either completely out of reach or even more difficult to capture. Millennials in FL, NC, PA, GA and AZ, for instance, are substantially tilted towards Democrats and that will move them off the map for some time if no progress is made in winning them/newer generations over. Such is the case in various other Democratic states right now.


Those two go hand in hand I think, and they seem to be the most alarming issues facing the Republican party right now. They really have to fix those problems soon or risk being exiled into the political wilderness for god knows how long.

Republicans did alright with minority voters(most notably Hispanics and Asians) in 2014 so they can make the sell to minorities if they are inclusive.

Now lets break down the states:

GA: It really doesn't look like other states(except for SC, MS, AL, and LA) with the Black Population making up  31% of the states population when the US average is 13%. Nor is it  as racially polarized as most other states(except for SC, MS, AL, and LA)with Whites only voting at 20% Obama in 2012.

VA: Blacks make uo 20% of the Electorate and the Republicans won around 6% of the Black Vote in both 2008 and 2012. If Republican Presidential Candidates in 2008 and 2012 won 13% of the Black Vote like Bush W. did in 2004 they cold have carried the state.

AZ: It has to do with the Latino Vote and whatever anguish about SB 1070 that maybe there still is. The current Governor Doug Ducey got elected as a Republican still in 2014.

NC: Blacks make up 22% of the Electorate and Romney lost them 96-4% even though he did manage to carry the state in 2012. Another problem is geography and people are moving to "The Research Triangle" which has 4 universities(North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, and Wake Forest) which are all about 10 minutes apart from each other. University Towns or Areas are pretty liberal places. Also Charlotte I think is a Dem area even though the Republicans had the mayors spot from 1987-2009 with the current Governor Pat McCory being the mayor there from 1995-2008.

PA: Dems rack up some big margins in Philadephia.

I don't think Republicans are  gonna die but they will be locked out of the White House for a long time if they don't take care of their problems at The Presidential Level.

[IceSpear]

1, since they've essentially given up on trying to win anyone besides whites.

I'll need to see a non-Trump election to see ANY evidence to suggest college-eudcated Whites aren't a solidly Republican voting bloc, seeing as they, well, vote solidly Republican and have for a long, long time.

Huh? I didn't mention anything about education. I think you read my post wrong.

I said point 1 because the Republicans have doubled down on only trying to win whites (this includes college-educated whites.)

[Redban]

1, since they've essentially given up on trying to win anyone besides whites.

I'll need to see a non-Trump election to see ANY evidence to suggest college-eudcated Whites aren't a solidly Republican voting bloc, seeing as they, well, vote solidly Republican and have for a long, long time.

I don't see anything "solid" in these numbers in favor of the GOP. The most reliable group here is actually postgraduates, as they consistently break for the Democrat by a sizable margin.

2012:

Some college - 49% Obama vs 48% Romney
College graduate - 47% Obama vs 51% Romney
Postgraduate - 55% Obama vs 42% Romney

2008:

Some college - 52% Obama vs 48% Romney
College graduate - 55% Obama vs 45% McCain
Postgraduate - 65% Obama vs 35% McCain

2004:

Some college - 56% Bush to 44% Kerry
College graduate - 58% Bush to 42% Kerry
Postgraduate - 53% Kerry to 47% Bush

[RINO Tom]

1, since they've essentially given up on trying to win anyone besides whites.

I'll need to see a non-Trump election to see ANY evidence to suggest college-eudcated Whites aren't a solidly Republican voting bloc, seeing as they, well, vote solidly Republican and have for a long, long time.

I don't see anything "solid" in these numbers in favor of the GOP. The most reliable group here is actually postgraduates, as they consistently break for the Democrat by a sizable margin.

2012:

Some college - 49% Obama vs 48% Romney
College graduate - 47% Obama vs 51% Romney
Postgraduate - 55% Obama vs 42% Romney

2008:

Some college - 52% Obama vs 48% Romney
College graduate - 55% Obama vs 45% McCain
Postgraduate - 65% Obama vs 35% McCain

2004:

Some college - 56% Bush to 44% Kerry
College graduate - 58% Bush to 42% Kerry
Postgraduate - 53% Kerry to 47% Bush

See bolded, friend.  You also left out the last two midterms, where people with college degrees voted solidly Republican (with college educated Whites being even more lopsided).

[Orser67]

2: I think there's strong evidence for the "generational imprint" theory, which states that how you vote when you come of age sticks with you for life. If that's the case, then millennials will be a consistent thorn in the side of Republicans for decades to come, especially as the Silent Generation dies out.

1: Obviously the new demographics will be a major change that Republicans need to adapt to, and I expect that they will continue to have a tough time appealing to the white working class while avoiding alienating non-whites who might otherwise vote for them. On the other hand, I think that in the future we will see many Hispanics come to be regarded as "white," just as Italians and Polish immigrants were eventually assimilated.

5: As with the white/non-white issue, Republicans will face a challenge in continuing to appeal to their shrinking base while avoiding alienating relatively non-religious voters who might otherwise vote Republican. Though the demographics aren't quite as dire in regards to religion, I think in the very long term this could actually be a bigger challenge for Republicans, since I could see their evangelical base forcing them to take a lot of unpopular positions (e.g. gay marriage).

4: This is obviously a problem for Republicans, but I think there's a lot of correlation with other factors, including increased education, declining religion, and their unpopularity with young voters. This doesn't seem as pressing of an issue as the first three.

3: This isn't necessarily a problem for Republicans. More education should hopefully lead to more wealth, which would (according to current trends) lead to more Republican voters.

[RaphaelDLG]

1) majority-minority - minorities vote so inelastically this is really going to screw them for a while until they can totally rebrand their party.

5) the Republican party cannot survive in its current ideological form without a significant number of conservative christians living in the united states.  by most estimates, evangelicals make up 40% of the Republican voting bloc.  Republicans can't win on laissez-faire ayn randian ideology alone, because not many people actually buy into that stuff.

2) millennials have semi-permanently poisoned against at least anything remotely resembling the current incarnation of the republican party.  republicans will be screwed because of this.  however, they aren't as strongly identified with/attached to the democratic party as reliable democrats were in the past, allowing republicans at least a very theoretical opening.

3) not that important; the GOP used to be the party of the educated in the past.  I don't think they'll ever lead with PHDs/university faculty, but they can easily take the lead with college graduates and professionals again with a little rebranding, as having a college degree is mostly a function of wealth, and wealthy people more often vote republican.

4) this is a minor factor/there's obviously a GIGANTIC level of collinearity between this and other actually causative factors.

[RaphaelDLG]

5 > 1 > 4 > 2 > 3

3 is not a problem at all, but education in this country should require students to learn about the organizing beliefs of Western civilization and contemplate infinity.

Hmmm.... sounds totally innocuous...

[nclib]

NC: Blacks make up 22% of the Electorate and Romney lost them 96-4% even though he did manage to carry the state in 2012. Another problem is geography and people are moving to "The Research Triangle" which has 4 universities(North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, and Wake Forest) which are all about 10 minutes apart from each other. University Towns or Areas are pretty liberal places. Also Charlotte I think is a Dem area even though the Republicans had the mayors spot from 1987-2009 with the current Governor Pat McCory being the mayor there from 1995-2008.

Actually, Wake Forest is in Winston-Salem and further from the others. And UNC, Duke, and N.C. State are 20-40 minutes from each other.

But the main point is that whites with college degrees (esp. postgraduates) are trending Democratic (not just because of Trump). Here in the Research Triangle, having 3 universities and Research Triangle Park does influence liberal ideas/Democratic votes. Even if whites with college degrees are not that Democratic, areas like this are considerably more Democratic than less-educated areas.

[hopper]

.

1: Obviously the new demographics will be a major change that Republicans need to adapt to, and I expect that they will continue to have a tough time appealing to the white working class while avoiding alienating non-whites who might otherwise vote for them. On the other hand, I think that in the future we will see many Hispanics come to be regarded as "white," just as Italians and Polish immigrants were eventually assimilated.

Yeah Pew Research broke down the Hispanic Vote and it went like this:

57% of Hispanics that speak both English and Spanish or just Spanish are going for Hillary (80-11%.)

43% of Hispanics that speak English only is going for Hillary but alot less(48-41%.)