Is NH becoming VT politically?

[pppolitics]

NH looks like VT upside-down.


Is NH going to vote like VT too?

[pppolitics]

Vermont votes 30% - 40% Democrat while New Hampshire votes around 5% Democrat.

I don't see the relation other than their positions in the Northeast.

NH is the mirror image of AR

[morgieb]

Anyone else was hoping for TNVol's response when opening this thread?

[Xing]

No, it's more like D.C. Actually, it's more Democratic than D.C.!!!

/s

NH might be trending Democratic, but that probably means it's on par with a state like Colorado, a state that's just now moving off of the battleground list, but certainly isn't as solidly blue as Vermont, or any double-digit Obama state.

[elcorazon]

Vermont votes 30% - 40% Democrat while New Hampshire votes around 5% Democrat.

I don't see the relation other than their positions in the Northeast.

NH is the mirror image of AR

IMO, this is what the map would look like if NH was tied on election day. It's really that inelastic. Angry NH females vote like MS Blacks.

lol at that! Illinois? Washington? sh**t, Maine and Michigan won't swing before NH.

[Boston Bread]

I hope it does, Democrats need more safe D small states so that the Senate is easier to win.

[evergreenarbor]

Nah. Politically, it might be turning into West Maine: safe D, but usually a 55-45 split rather than a 65-35 one.

Also, lol at Washington voting for Trump, and double lol at it voting to the right of New Hampshire. Here's my guess for what the map looks like if NH is tied:

Trump: 295 EVs
Clinton: 239 EVs
Too close to call: 4 EVs

[Xing]

NH might be trending Democratic, but that probably means it's on par with a state like Colorado, a state that's just now moving off of the battleground list, but certainly isn't as solidly blue as Vermont, or any double-digit Obama state.

lol at that! Illinois? Washington? sh**t, Maine and Michigan won't swing before NH.

Republicans have had at least some success in past statewide races in all of these states. People think NH is likely to vote Republican because it's always so close, but closeness is irrelevant when your ceiling is below 50%. I could easily see NH voting to the left of IL in a Clinton landslide, for example. The female vote is killing the NH GOP and the Clintons are still very popular in the state, especially Hillary. IIRC, the last poll showed her leading by 45 among NH females.

Funny, I seem to remember Ayotte getting well over 50% in 2010. Even if the Republican "ceiling" in New Hampshire for presidential races is below 50%, it's below 45% in  IL and WA.

[EliteLX]

Vermont votes 30% - 40% Democrat while New Hampshire votes around 5% Democrat.

I don't see the relation other than their positions in the Northeast.

NH is the mirror image of AR

IMO, this is what the map would look like if NH was tied on election day. It's really that inelastic. Angry NH females vote like MS Blacks.

Tennessee you really must be in the sauce dude, that's ridiculous.

[Xing]

Funny, I seem to remember Ayotte getting well over 50% in 2010.

That's the standard response whenever someone wants to prove that NH is still competitive. I also seem to remember Manchin getting over 60% in 2012, I guess that means that WV is a swing state. Look, I'm not saying that the GOP can win WA, but NH is definitely not less Democratic/more likely to vote Republican than WA.

Also, Ayotte has lost to Hassan this year.

Murray will win by much more than Hassan, and Trump will lose WA by much more than he'll lose NH. If you're going to argue about inelasticity, WA is definitely inelastic, so it's less likely to go Republican than NH (however likely you may think that is.) You can argue that Trump can't win NH, or that Ayotte is toast, but NH is not more Democratic than WA, lol.