Susquehanna: Clinton +10 in PA
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  Susquehanna: Clinton +10 in PA		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Susquehanna: Clinton +10 in PA  (Read 1670 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: August 08, 2016, 10:44:50 AM »
Clinton 47
Trump 37

https://mgtvwhtm.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/toplines-statewideabc27-aug16.pdf
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2016, 10:45:57 AM »
Looks like PA is gone too, in the likely D territory two polls in a row. Great news!
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amdcpus
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2016, 10:46:56 AM »
With third parties:

Clinton 46% Trump 37% Johnson 7% Stein 3%
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2016, 10:47:41 AM »
Matches the other PA poll, nice!
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2016, 10:48:39 AM »
This is apparently a B- pollster, but we've recently seen Clinton +9, +4, +11, and now +10. It's looking dire for Trump here.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2016, 10:49:35 AM »
nah, Luzerne county and the Reagan Democrats will bring this home for Trump.
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2016, 10:50:46 AM »
Demographics in this poll are 81% white, 10% African-American, 2% Hispanic, 6% other.

In 2012, the electorate was 78% white, 13% African-American, 6% Hispanic and 3% other
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xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2016, 10:51:41 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 08, 2016, 10:50:43 AM

It's looking dire for Trump in every swing state.

Exactly.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2016, 10:51:56 AM »
Wow. Even Sacagawea has Trump down by a ton.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2016, 10:52:13 AM »
This could be one state where Trump brings down Toomey.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2016, 10:56:46 AM »
Quote from: dspNY on August 08, 2016, 10:50:46 AM
Demographics in this poll are 81% white, 10% African-American, 2% Hispanic, 6% other.

In 2012, the electorate was 78% white, 13% African-American, 6% Hispanic and 3% other

Regardless, throw it in the aggregate like the rest of them.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2016, 11:07:23 AM »
People keep acting like these polls are amazing news but I mean - we know, Clinton is up by 10ish nationally so of course she'll be crushing Trump in a swing state.

Though I guess confirming her national lead with these state polls is nice to see.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2016, 11:17:37 AM »
Quote from: Gustaf on August 08, 2016, 11:07:23 AM
People keep acting like these polls are amazing news but I mean - we know, Clinton is up by 10ish nationally so of course she'll be crushing Trump in a swing state.

Though I guess confirming her national lead with these state polls is nice to see.

It also puts a damper on the notion that PA is particularly likely to swing towards Trump. If it's the median state, like last time, then it will be in line with national polls. This seems to be a point or two MORE Clinton friendly on average. No shift in PA so far.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2016, 11:18:46 AM »
Quote from: Gustaf on August 08, 2016, 11:07:23 AM
People keep acting like these polls are amazing news but I mean - we know, Clinton is up by 10ish nationally so of course she'll be crushing Trump in a swing state.

Though I guess confirming her national lead with these state polls is nice to see.

Another factor is that some people were expecting her lead to recede as part of a bounce, but the latest polls seem to confirm the double-digit lead as a new norm, which is a big deal.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2016, 11:25:04 AM »
Susquehanna isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer, but this looks fine. PA is going to vote about the same as the country as a whole does.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2016, 11:40:03 AM »
Quote from: Arch on August 08, 2016, 11:18:46 AM
Quote from: Gustaf on August 08, 2016, 11:07:23 AM
People keep acting like these polls are amazing news but I mean - we know, Clinton is up by 10ish nationally so of course she'll be crushing Trump in a swing state.

Though I guess confirming her national lead with these state polls is nice to see.

Another factor is that some people were expecting her lead to recede as part of a bounce, but the latest polls seem to confirm the double-digit lead as a new norm, which is a big deal.

That's fair, I haven't been tracking the dates on all these polls enough.
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Mallow
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« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2016, 12:04:19 PM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on August 08, 2016, 10:52:13 AM
This could be one state where Trump brings down Toomey.

God I hope so.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2016, 12:35:27 PM »
Awesome !
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Nyvin
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2016, 12:44:43 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2016, 12:52:54 PM by AKCreative »
These are significant also:

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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2016, 04:26:13 PM »
Would winning PA by 10 points lead to Hillary winning a majority of congressional districts there? I know it is a brutal gerrymander, but 10 points is a huge lead.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2016, 04:30:04 PM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on August 08, 2016, 10:52:13 AM
This could be one state where Trump brings down Toomey.

In what other state could he bring down Toomey?

He might take down Portman in Ohio, Rubio in Florida, Grassley in Iowa, McCain in Arizona....

Kirk (IL) and Johnson (WI) would have gone down on their own.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2016, 05:46:39 PM »
Context: Susquehanna is a Republican junk pollster that had Obama/Romney and Casey/Smith tied in 2012.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2016, 05:47:04 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 08, 2016, 05:46:39 PM
Context: Susquehanna is a Republican junk pollster that had Obama/Romney and Casey/Smith tied in 2012.

wow this election might actually be over then
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2016, 05:52:36 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on August 08, 2016, 05:47:04 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 08, 2016, 05:46:39 PM
Context: Susquehanna is a Republican junk pollster that had Obama/Romney and Casey/Smith tied in 2012.

wow this election might actually be over then

Don't worry I'm sure Quinnipiac will barge in here any day now with a Trump +1 in PA poll lol
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2016, 05:55:02 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on August 08, 2016, 05:52:36 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on August 08, 2016, 05:47:04 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 08, 2016, 05:46:39 PM
Context: Susquehanna is a Republican junk pollster that had Obama/Romney and Casey/Smith tied in 2012.

wow this election might actually be over then

Don't worry I'm sure Quinnipiac will barge in here any day now with a Trump +1 in PA poll lol

Only +1? I'm sure if they try hard enough they can get him up double digits!
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