New York City mayoral election, 2017 thread

[Tintrlvr]

http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/766889?section=John-Gizzi&keywords=New-York-city-mayor-Bill-de-Blasio&year=2017&month=01&date=04&id=766889&aliaspath=%2FManage%2FArticles%2FTemplate-Main&oref=www.google.com

Hillary Clinton for mayor? Apparently she's being urged to consider.

She's never lived in the city and doesn't now. I don't think it would work, at least in the primaries, unless somehow she's already in the race with only de Blasio and Avella (lol) as the other candidates, and de Blasio gets indicted for one of the various nebulous corruption scandals a week before the primaries. Maybe I'm wrong, though. I do think she could clear the field of everyone except de Blasio and Avella.

She'd easily win a general election, but so would a fish (D) against the pathetic candidates like Ulrich the Republicans are putting up.

[Tintrlvr]

http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/766889?section=John-Gizzi&keywords=New-York-city-mayor-Bill-de-Blasio&year=2017&month=01&date=04&id=766889&aliaspath=%2FManage%2FArticles%2FTemplate-Main&oref=www.google.com

Hillary Clinton for mayor? Apparently she's being urged to consider.

From Presidency to Mayor???

It's almost like she genuinely cares about serving the public.

[Tintrlvr]

Malliotakis vs. De Blasio is Lean D. Malliotakis could do well with female voters in Queens--the ultimate swing voters in NYC.

Your commentary on this election has been a string of hilariously delusional and/or misinformed statements. I applaud your efforts at humor.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm a little surprised that de Blasio's approval rating is that high, to be honest, but he'll win the vote of a lot of people who disapprove. As the poll suggests, the final result should be de Blasio winning somewhere between 65 and 70% of the vote unless something substantial changes (including a new GOP candidate and not a sacrificial lamb like Malliotakis or, even worse, Massey).

[Tintrlvr]

I'm a little surprised that de Blasio's approval rating is that high, to be honest, but he'll win the vote of a lot of people who disapprove. As the poll suggests, the final result should be de Blasio winning somewhere between 65 and 70% of the vote unless something substantial changes (including a new GOP candidate and not a sacrificial lamb like Malliotakis or, even worse, Massey).

Yeah. This is my first time following NYC politics and from what nearly everyone on this site was saying I thought de Blasio would be in more trouble than this. I also find it interesting how he holds up in Staten Island against Massey.

Well, it's clear now and has been for at least the past three-four months (I live in NYC) that de Blasio is going to win reelection. The opportunity for a significant challenge in the Democratic primary passed around January (the last chance was if Clinton had decided to throw her hat in, but by the time she was being discussed, no one else was a threat to de Blasio and she was only a threat because of her enormous presence), and the Republicans never had much chance of unseating him, even when he was quite unpopular, without at the least a divisive Democratic primary and a much stronger candidate than a random Staten Island Assemblywoman or random rich people. That said, I don't have the impression that he has become popular, more that people don't feel as passionately negatively about him as they used to. And I'm sure the Democrats are experiencing some rally-round-the-flag effects in the Trump era also.

The final result will look about like 2013, maybe slightly narrower.

[Tintrlvr]

I can assure that Albanese will win parts of Bay Ridge, Bensonhurst, Gravesend, etc.

Albanese will beat De Blasio in the white ethnic Staten Island areas where De Blasio is very unpopular.

I can see Albanese doing well in places like Forest Hills, Kew Gardens (white ethnics and Jewish conservative areas).

Four years ago, September 2013, the Democratic mayoral primary was more intense post-Bloomberg (Quinn, De Blasio, Thompson, Weiner)

However, De Blasio did well with all groups because of the income inequality issue.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election/bill-de-blasio-led-women-jewish-black-voters-article-1.1451832

Maybe, but you may not know much about Albanese's campaign. He's largely running to de Blasio's left, especially on housing issues (attacking de Blasio for being "in bed with big developers," etc.). Not as far to de Blasio's left as Gangi or Bashner, but definitely not campaigning against de Blasio from the right in the way that would be needed to run up the score on Staten Island. To the extent there is a candidate to the right of de Blasio, it's Tolkin, but he's not going to do particularly well anywhere and is a much more urbanist candidate than Albanese so would do better in wealthy liberal places like Park Slope or the UWS.

By far the more interesting and competitive race in NYC this primary day is the race for (the Democratic nomination for) Brooklyn DA.

[Tintrlvr]

Will DeBlasio get something close to the 49 point margin he got in 2013, or something much smaller?

It probably won't be quite that large. He'll still get around 2/3 of the vote though.

The margin could be that large because Deitl and Malliotakis could split the anti-de Blasio vote, though. I expect de Blasio to get around 70% of the vote.

What percentages would you guess for the others?

I'm going to guess:
de Blasio 67%
Malliotakis 22%
Dietl 9%
Others 2%

But my predictions are often wildly inaccurate.

This seems like a decent prediction to me, although I expect Dietl to do somewhat worse than this (no more than 4-5%) with a percent or two boost to each of de Blasio, Malliotakis and the field.

My polling station was relatively quiet this morning. Also, they have apparently taken down the metal detectors at the high school where I vote some time between this year's primary election and the general election; good news?

[Tintrlvr]

Will there be a runoff if no candidate reaches a majority?

No, not that there is any risk of that.

[Tintrlvr]

Early results in.

Bill De Blasio: 64%

Nicole Malliotakis: 27.8%

De Blasio crushing it of course

Bo Dietl is in 6th behind Albanese (Reform), Browder (Green) and Tolkin (Smart Cities). LOL. At least he's ahead of the Libertarian candidate?

[Tintrlvr]

Elizabeth Crowley might lose her City Council seat in Queens. She's currently down 2 points with 85% reporting.

Also, the Socialist and Green candidate in my own Council district (35) managed a very strong result, getting 30% to Laurie Cumbo's (the incumbent Democrat) 67% thus far with 74% reporting. (The Republican candidate has 3%, ha.)

[Tintrlvr]

lol at Malliotakis cracking 70% in Staten Island. That's nuts.

Her home ground where she is popular, and SI didn't support De Blasio even when he was cracking 70% city-wide 4 years ago.

Funny to think of the number of Richmond County Obama/Malliotakis voters there are.

Partially I am sure it is because turnout among minorities on the North Shore was terrible. There aren't that many places in NYC where bad minority turnout would show up clearly in the results without precinct data, although the result in City Council district 30 where Elizabeth Crowley likely lost re-election also suggests minority turnout was dreadful. Not a big surprise; there were no competitive races in NYC outside of a couple of City Council seats (but it ultimately doesn't matter if the Republicans have 3 or 5 seats on the City Council, either), so the voters are mainly going to be the types of people who turn out to vote no matter what.