Clinton has a 272 EV Firewall.

[pbrower2a]

One after another state that Donald Trump must win seems to slip away with many swing-state or fringe-of-competition states.

When the swing states are Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, then the Republican now has a chance based on winning every one of those states.  

When the swing states are Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, then the Democrat has a chance of winning only by winning all of those states. Replace Virginia with Wisconsin in that list and the Democrat is going to lose.

When the swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri, then the Republican has lost.    

We will likely see polls of Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio very soon... Indiana not very often.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Trump has a great debate or two and pulls it to a very close race is almost certain to hold NC (GA and AZ) and pick up FL and OH and probably IA. VA and CO appear to be drifting away from the center line and WI, MI and MN aren't likely to be tipping points.   

So, once again it appears to come down to PA, NH, NV and ME2. In what order does Trump pick up those states as he gets closer and closer and tips over to a small PV win? I still think that PA flips before all of NH, NV and ME2. Not sure what you count as 'firewall'

If I had to guess, I'd say the PV center line goes through FL, with OH, IA, and NV to the right of FL, and PA to the left.  And the rise in PV necessary to flip PA is significant.  But at that point the floodgates open rather quickly, with VA and CO falling to Trump as well.  (NV->IA->FL->VA=PA->CO->ME2->NH)

I would define a firewall as a set of states that are held strongly enough to block the establishment of any reasonable battleground strategy by an opponent.  I mean, give Trump a 2% or greater lead nationally, and the EVs will come from somewhere.  But we have battleground states for a reason: to provide an electoral path to victory in the event of a close race. 

Wait, IA is drifting away?  Was there a new poll that showed him ahead by more than 5%?  The last two polls (pre-conventions) went to Trump.

Hopefully we'll get more polls soon.  This all may be moot, because I can't see Trump getting anywhere near even nationally before November.

[DINGO Joe]

thank you mr oc

If Atlas sold one thing, ONE THING,  in it's Atlas store, it should be a 272 FIERWALL! T-Shirt.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Pennsylvania.

[Xing]

So it's actually a 278 freiwal. Got it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Interesting analysis Harry.

Pennsylvania or Michigan perhaps.

But it looks pretty ominous for our orange haired friend.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

OC WAS RIGHT! IS THIS ALSO THE LATINO'S LAST RODEO?

[IceSpear]

OC WAS RIGHT! IS THIS ALSO THE LATINO'S LAST RODEO?

Maybe NV is relatively close because the rodeo was cancelled there?