NC-PPP: Clinton +2/+1
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  NC-PPP: Clinton +2/+1
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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Clinton +2/+1  (Read 3854 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: August 09, 2016, 08:54:36 AM »

43% Clinton (D)
41% Trump (R)
7% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

47% Clinton (D)
46% Trump (R)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-leads-in-nc-for-first-time-since-march.html
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2016, 08:55:43 AM »

Looks about right given it's PPP.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2016, 08:59:34 AM »

-69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump.

-48% of Trump voters think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton deserve the blame for Humayun Khan's death to 16% who absolve them and 36% who aren't sure one way or the other

-Trump said last week that Hillary Clinton is the devil, and 41% of Trump voters say they think she is indeed the devil to 42% who disagree with that sentiment and 17% who aren't sure one way or the other.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2016, 09:15:19 AM »

Q14. Can Trump be trusted with nuclear weapons?

38% Yes
54% No
9% Unsure

Uh... a bunch of people who said they are voting for Trump don't want his finger on the button... People are dumb.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2016, 09:15:39 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2016, 09:20:29 AM by MohamedChalid »

-69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump.

-48% of Trump voters think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton deserve the blame for Humayun Khan's death to 16% who absolve them and 36% who aren't sure one way or the other

-Trump said last week that Hillary Clinton is the devil, and 41% of Trump voters say they think she is indeed the devil to 42% who disagree with that sentiment and 17% who aren't sure one way or the other.

Thanks Mr. Drumpf for destroying the believe in democracy and fair elections although no facts back your claims up.

And sure, President Obama was commander-in-chief in 2004.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2016, 09:19:14 AM »

I'll take PPP's word for it. NC is their state
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2016, 09:40:16 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2016, 11:04:18 AM by Sorenroy »

43% Clinton (D) (±0)
41% Trump (R) (-2)
7% Johnson (L) (+3)
2% Stein (G) (±0)
8% Undecided (+1)

47% Clinton (D) (+1)
46% Trump (R) (-2)
7% Undecided (+2)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-leads-in-nc-for-first-time-since-march.html

Added the undecided numbers and the changes from their poll over a month and a half ago.

Also, Jill Stein's numbers will probably not be nearly as high on election day as she is not even on the ballot (she is a write-in).
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2016, 09:45:23 AM »


Not necessarily.  The recent GA polls with Clinton leads were from other pollsters.  PPP seems to have a slight R lean this cycle.  It would be nice to see them poll GA for comparison.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2016, 09:54:31 AM »


Not necessarily.  The recent GA polls with Clinton leads were from other pollsters.  PPP seems to have a slight R lean this cycle.  It would be nice to see them poll GA for comparison.

How does GA compare with NC in terms of educated voters?
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2016, 09:59:38 AM »

PPP is also all robo calls and they weight according to demos. They've consistently been underestimating Hillary's support all cycle. However, given that they have her in the lead in NC, it's pretty safe to say she is leading in VA, NC and probably very close in GA. We need a SC poll soon.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2016, 10:03:39 AM »


Not necessarily.  The recent GA polls with Clinton leads were from other pollsters.  PPP seems to have a slight R lean this cycle.  It would be nice to see them poll GA for comparison.

How does GA compare with NC in terms of educated voters?

Pretty close; GA has a very slight advantage.

GA: 29.1% of the voting age population have a bachelor's degree or higher (30.1% for age 25+)

NC: 28.7% and 30.1%

Source: Census Bureau state electorate profiles at http://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2016/comm/electorate-profiles.html

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2016, 10:06:45 AM »


Not necessarily.  The recent GA polls with Clinton leads were from other pollsters.  PPP seems to have a slight R lean this cycle.  It would be nice to see them poll GA for comparison.

How does GA compare with NC in terms of educated voters?

Pretty close; GA has a very slight advantage.

GA: 29.1% of the voting age population have a bachelor's degree or higher (30.1% for age 25+)

NC: 28.7% and 30.1%

Source: Census Bureau state electorate profiles at http://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2016/comm/electorate-profiles.html



Not large enough to account for the difference then... hmm.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2016, 10:10:53 AM »

LOL, just found this scrolling through the crosstabs:

Stein gets 2% of the vote, however only 1% of the white vote and 2% of the black vote. The only thing that puts her at 2% rather than 1% is the fact that she garners 8% of the "other" vote.

Note that she isn't on the ballot. To get that support, all of those people would  have to write her in.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2016, 10:11:15 AM »

I knew PPP would be off from other polls both state and national. The only thing to look at is the trend line.


From a pollster not named PPP.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2016, 10:12:35 AM »

It could be that polls are a bit too friendly for Clinton in Georgia. I highly doubt she's actually up by 7 there. Clinton up by 2 in NC definitely seems plausible.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2016, 10:13:04 AM »

-69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump.

-48% of Trump voters think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton deserve the blame for Humayun Khan's death to 16% who absolve them and 36% who aren't sure one way or the other

Is this a push poll?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2016, 10:15:56 AM »

PPP is the Prince Zuko of polling. It had a solid track record and pedigree, but it got burned during the primaries and underestimates Hillary's support.
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dspNY
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2016, 10:16:02 AM »

Larger AA population in GA + an already maxed out GOP rural white population + new arrivals in GA who are moderate = more serious swing potential in GA
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2016, 10:17:04 AM »

Larger AA population in GA + an already maxed out GOP rural white population + new arrivals in GA who are moderate = more serious swing potential in GA

That makes sense.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2016, 01:16:12 PM »

-69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump.

-48% of Trump voters think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton deserve the blame for Humayun Khan's death to 16% who absolve them and 36% who aren't sure one way or the other

-Trump said last week that Hillary Clinton is the devil, and 41% of Trump voters say they think she is indeed the devil to 42% who disagree with that sentiment and 17% who aren't sure one way or the other.
That is disturbing stuff.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2016, 01:43:52 PM »

-69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump.

-48% of Trump voters think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton deserve the blame for Humayun Khan's death to 16% who absolve them and 36% who aren't sure one way or the other

-Trump said last week that Hillary Clinton is the devil, and 41% of Trump voters say they think she is indeed the devil to 42% who disagree with that sentiment and 17% who aren't sure one way or the other.
That is disturbing stuff.

A testament to the awfulness of America's educational system.

With all the reference material on the Web, can;t people at the least do some fact-checking?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2016, 01:53:27 PM »

-69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump.

-48% of Trump voters think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton deserve the blame for Humayun Khan's death to 16% who absolve them and 36% who aren't sure one way or the other

-Trump said last week that Hillary Clinton is the devil, and 41% of Trump voters say they think she is indeed the devil to 42% who disagree with that sentiment and 17% who aren't sure one way or the other.

That is disturbing stuff.

A testament to the awfulness of America's educational system.
With all the reference material on the Web, can;t people at the least do some fact-checking?

Some of it, unfortunately, is a direct result of the educational system or due to direct fault of the individual's drive to obtain a proper education (and I mean basic education, like a High School diploma),
But when you look at the question asked to trump voters about the devil, I don't think that 41% of them can possibly truly believe that Hillary is Satan. More than likely, these individuals detest Hillary to the point that they would answer "yes" to any silly and distasteful question that would shine negative light on her campaign.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2016, 02:12:42 PM »

The area code numbers are pretty good for Trump, he's winning everywhere except the Raleigh Area and is very close in South Western NC
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2016, 06:13:36 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Public Policy Polling on 2016-08-07

Summary: D: 43%, R: 41%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2016, 06:16:34 PM »


You really shouldn't take every poll at face value. When dozens of different pollsters with dozens of different methodologies are surveying dozens of different states, there's always going to be inconsistencies, sometimes massive ones. So no, GA is not going to the left of NC. If PPP polled GA there's a good chance they'd show Trump ahead, and probably vice versa if those GA pollsters polled NC.
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