NBC/WSJ/Marist IA/OH/PA poll predictions

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/763049318601351168

NBC is releasing both presidential and senate numbers for those three states at 5 PM, so let's make some guesses.

2-way:
IA: Clinton +3
OH: Clinton +4
PA: Clinton +8

4-way:
IA: Clinton +3
OH: Clinton +4
PA: Clinton +7

Senate:
IA: Grassley +5
OH: Portman +1
PA: McGinty +3

[MT Treasurer]

2-way:
IA: Clinton +1
OH: Clinton +3
PA: Clinton +9

4-way:
IA: Clinton +2
OH: Clinton +3
PA: Clinton +7

Senate:
IA: Grassley +8
OH: Portman +3
PA: McGinty +3

[President Johnson]

2-way:
IA: Clinton +3
OH: Clinton +3
PA: Clinton +11

4-way:
IA: Clinton +3
OH: Clinton +4
PA: Clinton +8

Senate:
IA: Grassley +10
OH: Portman +4
PA: McGinty +1

[ElectionsGuy]

Really anticipating these ones. Not going to predict, but I will say if Clinton is leading in Ohio by 5 or more than the overall race is definitely Likely D.

[ProudModerate2]

3 great states to poll.
The anticipation is killing me.

[Wells]

2 way

IA: Clinton +6
OH: Clinton +8
PA: Clinton +12

4 way

IA: Clinton +3
OH: Clinton +3
PA: Clinton +8

Senate

IA: Grassley +6
OH: Portman +2
PA: McGinty +1

[dspNY]

IA: Clinton +2
OH: Clinton +3
PA: Clinton +9

4 way: IA: Tied
OH: Clinton +3
PA: Clinton +7

Senate: IA: Grassley +7
OH: Tied
PA: McGinty +1

[The Other Castro]

IA: Clinton +7
OH: Clinton +5
PA: Clinton +9

Senate:
IA: Grassley +6
OH: Strickland +1
PA: McGinty +2

[Xing]

I'm not sure why everyone's assuming Iowa will be more Republican than Ohio. I'll be surprised if that's the case.

2-way:
Iowa: Clinton +7
Ohio: Clinton +4
Pennsylvania: Clinton +9

4-way:
Iowa: Clinton +5
Ohio: Clinton +3
Pennsylvania: Clinton +8

Senate:
Iowa: Grassley +6
Ohio: Portman +1
Pennsylvania: McGinty +3

[Gass3268]

This means we should be getting Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia polls tomorrow like last month.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Actual Results:

2-way:   
IA: Clinton   4
OH: Clinton   5 (castro got it)
PA: Clinton   11 (President Johnson)
   
4-way:   
IA: Clinton   0 (dspNY)
OH: Clinton   4 (heatcharger and President Johnson)
PA: Clinton   9
   
Senate:   
IA: Grassley   10
OH: Portman   5
PA: McGinty   4

Closest Presidential predictions:

President Johnson: 7 points total, aggregate 1 point towards Trump
dspNY: 9 points total, aggregate 9 points towards Trump
Heatcharger: 10 points total, aggregate 4 points towards Trump
(Castro was 5 off, but only predicted 2-way)

Closest Senate predictions:

President Johnson: 4 points
TN Volunteer: 5 points
xīngkěruì: 9 points

Atlas aggregate error:
2-way            
IA: Prediction: Clinton   4.29   Error: 0.29
OH: Prediction: Clinton   4.14   Error: -0.86
PA: Prediction   Clinton   9.57   Error: -1.43
            
4-way
IA: Prediction: Clinton   3.29   Error: 2.67
OH: Prediction: Clinton   3.57   Error: -0.67
PA: Prediction: Clinton   7.71   Error: -1.50

Total Presidential Error: 7.4 points total, aggregate 1.50 towards Trump
               
IA: Prediction: Grassley: 6.86   Error: -3.14
OH: Prediction: Portman: 1.43   Error: -3.57
PA: Prediction: McGinty: 2.00   Error: -2.00

Total Senate Error: 8.71 points

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Note: I did it wrong the first time.  I wasn't summing absolute values.  This has been fixed.