Will millennials become more conservative with age, and if so, by how much?

[hopper]

I still expect the almost perfect linear pattern of age correlating positively with Republican voting to continue.

What do you mean? That as people get older, they will vote Republican? Where are these new voters going to come from though? If that's what you mean, then you're basically saying Millennials/younger genx'ers are going to start voting Republican. The major reason why the GOP base is older right now is because they've failed to win over much of the last 1.5 generations of voters, leaving them with an aging base that, lucky for them, votes more consistently than a younger Democratic base.

The main GOP problem at the Presidential Level is with Millenials not younger Xer's.

[BuckeyeNut]

Maybe on fiscal issues they'll move a little to the right. I hope many of the Bernie Bros wake up and realize that socialism is never the answer.

Yeah I think they will move more right fiscally than they are now since More Millenials will be in married life in the future.

Except Millenials are getting married at a pale rate.

Also, people who think the country is going in the wrong direction under Obama includes the far left.

[hopper]

Maybe on fiscal issues they'll move a little to the right. I hope many of the Bernie Bros wake up and realize that socialism is never the answer.

Yeah I think they will move more right fiscally than they are now since More Millenials will be in married life in the future.

Except Millenials are getting married at a pale rate.

Also, people who think the country is going in the wrong direction under Obama includes the far left.

I'm saying as more Millenials get married in the future.

Really "the far left"? I just think the far left is like the far right and they will never be happy what ever their party does.

[erſatz-york]

I've read that Gen-Z, the generation following the Millennials-- for the oldest of whom this election is their first -- is trending fiscally conservative and socially more liberal than even the Millennials.

Johnson/Weld is leading with voters aged 18-34 right now. I think that's very telling of what the political landscape of the future will look like, i.e., not favorable to the Democrats at all, but favorable to more moderate Republicans or the Libertarians, if the latter should replace the former.

[Ljube]

Yes, as people get older, they become more conservative.

[Medal506]

In 2020 white millennials will vote for Ted Cruz over Hillary Clinton

[Virginiá]

Yes, as people get older, they become more conservative.

Nope. Debunked myth.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/09/the-politics-of-american-generations-how-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/

[Kempros]

Conservative 20 year old here. History can be predicable and unpredictable so we will see.

[Leinad]

Their positions won't change, for the most part.

But their positions will change from progressive to conservative... to conserve the progress in their lifetimes.


(ex: if you support gay marriage, you are now a conservative on the issue... because you want to conserve the nationwide legal status of same-sex marriage, not change it.)

No. Supporting legalized abortion isn't conservative just because of Roe.

You two proved that answering this question requires answering another question first. Namely, what is "conservatism?"

If you're talking about "conservative" as preserving the status quo, that has and for the foreseable future will continue to move leftward (especially on social issues), so people will appear to move rightward with age. For example, if person A is pro-SSM, and person B is anti-SSM, A would look like a crazed extremist 30 years ago, while B's position would've been shared with most people, both of them would appear somewhat mainstream now, while in 30 years B would look like the crazed extremist, and A wouldn't raise any eyebrows.

However, the common US-definition of "conservative" is basically right-wing--an odd blend of moderate economic libertarianism, social authoritarianism with a nuance here or there, military interventionism, and some level of nationalism. I see no reason why young people would gravitate towards the ridiculous #2 and #4, I'm trying to be optimistic but am ultimately doubtful they gravitate towards #1, and regarding #3, a proper millenial (pre-2000) would remember the Iraq disaster, but I could see the post-millenials more susceptible to supporting war if it was marketed as another patriotic mission to slay the boogeyman.

So, basically, no--millenials will not, in general, change their views to 2016 mainstream conservatism, but mainstream conservatism will probably meet them on most things, sooner or later.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Fiscally, yes. There are already many signs that Millennials on the "from each according to his ability" side of things already tend to oppose redistribution. This group will grow in number and influence as Millennials get older and wealthier.

Socially, I'm not really sure.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I've read that Gen-Z, the generation following the Millennials-- for the oldest of whom this election is their first -- is trending fiscally conservative and socially more liberal than even the Millennials.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKNImtiXazw

[Virginiá]

Fiscally, yes. There are already many signs that Millennials on the "from each according to his ability" side of things already tend to oppose redistribution. This group will grow in number and influence as Millennials get older and wealthier.

Socially, I'm not really sure.

But one has to ask, even if they are somewhat fiscally moderate/conservative, how does that apply to policies? Just because you are fiscally conservative doesn't necessarily mean you are against, say, single-payer healthcare, or expanding social security, and so on. Millennials have shown greater openness to such proposals and generally favor government in many aspects more than other generations. Millennials are also open to taxes on the wealthy, and that is hardly surprising given the age we have grown up in, where inequality and the wealthy gaming the system has become a defining issue of our generation.

However, personally, I still believe that aging and financial status doesn't guarantee a shift towards conservatism at any level. Studies don't support the aging aspect at least. Millennials are not really all that fiscally liberal right now, sure, but just because they aren't does not mean they will trend even more towards fiscal conservatism down the road.

[hopper]

Fiscally, yes. There are already many signs that Millennials on the "from each according to his ability" side of things already tend to oppose redistribution. This group will grow in number and influence as Millennials get older and wealthier.

Socially, I'm not really sure.

But one has to ask, even if they are somewhat fiscally moderate/conservative, how does that apply to policies? Just because you are fiscally conservative doesn't necessarily mean you are against, say, single-payer healthcare, or expanding social security, and so on. Millennials have shown greater openness to such proposals and generally favor government in many aspects more than other generations. Millennials are also open to taxes on the wealthy, and that is hardly surprising given the age we have grown up in, where inequality and the wealthy gaming the system has become a defining issue of our generation.

However, personally, I still believe that aging and financial status doesn't guarantee a shift towards conservatism at any level. Studies don't support the aging aspect at least. Millennials are not really all that fiscally liberal right now, sure, but just because they aren't does not mean they will trend even more towards fiscal conservatism down the road.

I think Millennials are more towards the "political center" on fiscal issues but they are socially liberal no doubt.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Fiscally, yes. There are already many signs that Millennials on the "from each according to his ability" side of things already tend to oppose redistribution. This group will grow in number and influence as Millennials get older and wealthier.

Socially, I'm not really sure.

But one has to ask, even if they are somewhat fiscally moderate/conservative, how does that apply to policies? Just because you are fiscally conservative doesn't necessarily mean you are against, say, single-payer healthcare, or expanding social security, and so on. Millennials have shown greater openness to such proposals and generally favor government in many aspects more than other generations. Millennials are also open to taxes on the wealthy, and that is hardly surprising given the age we have grown up in, where inequality and the wealthy gaming the system has become a defining issue of our generation.

However, personally, I still believe that aging and financial status doesn't guarantee a shift towards conservatism at any level. Studies don't support the aging aspect at least. Millennials are not really all that fiscally liberal right now, sure, but just because they aren't does not mean they will trend even more towards fiscal conservatism down the road.

Millennials who make good money tend to oppose redistributive policy. This means single-payer healthcare, etc. This has been shown more than once. This doesn't mean they'll be Republicans, as you can see in Colorado that there are a significant group of Dems who oppose single-payer, but I don't think you're going to see huge numbers of high-earning Millennials willingly vote their money away, at least not with the polling data that's out there right now.

[Virginiá]

Millennials who make good money tend to oppose redistributive policy. This means single-payer healthcare, etc. This has been shown more than once. This doesn't mean they'll be Republicans, as you can see in Colorado that there are a significant group of Dems who oppose single-payer, but I don't think you're going to see huge numbers of high-earning Millennials willingly vote their money away, at least not with the polling data that's out there right now.

Do you have any resources/polls for this I can look at, on Millennial position issues by age and wealth? I'm not saying you are wrong, but I'm curious and I'd like to add the data to my collection.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Millennials who make good money tend to oppose redistributive policy. This means single-payer healthcare, etc. This has been shown more than once. This doesn't mean they'll be Republicans, as you can see in Colorado that there are a significant group of Dems who oppose single-payer, but I don't think you're going to see huge numbers of high-earning Millennials willingly vote their money away, at least not with the polling data that's out there right now.

Do you have any resources/polls for this I can look at, on Millennial position issues by age and wealth? I'm not saying you are wrong, but I'm curious and I'd like to add the data to my collection.

Here's one from the Washington Post. One of the links in it has the polling data.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/03/24/millennials-like-socialism-until-they-get-jobs/?utm_term=.7cd834599319

[uti2]

Millennials who make good money tend to oppose redistributive policy. This means single-payer healthcare, etc. This has been shown more than once. This doesn't mean they'll be Republicans, as you can see in Colorado that there are a significant group of Dems who oppose single-payer, but I don't think you're going to see huge numbers of high-earning Millennials willingly vote their money away, at least not with the polling data that's out there right now.

Do you have any resources/polls for this I can look at, on Millennial position issues by age and wealth? I'm not saying you are wrong, but I'm curious and I'd like to add the data to my collection.

Here's one from the Washington Post. One of the links in it has the polling data.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/03/24/millennials-like-socialism-until-they-get-jobs/?utm_term=.7cd834599319

No, that shows them to be center-left, favoring Scandinavia. Bernie calls himself a 'socialist' in the sense of a social democrat, because Fox News, etc. calls social democrats 'socialists', in the US.

[uti2]

Fiscally, yes. There are already many signs that Millennials on the "from each according to his ability" side of things already tend to oppose redistribution. This group will grow in number and influence as Millennials get older and wealthier.

Socially, I'm not really sure.

But one has to ask, even if they are somewhat fiscally moderate/conservative, how does that apply to policies? Just because you are fiscally conservative doesn't necessarily mean you are against, say, single-payer healthcare, or expanding social security, and so on. Millennials have shown greater openness to such proposals and generally favor government in many aspects more than other generations. Millennials are also open to taxes on the wealthy, and that is hardly surprising given the age we have grown up in, where inequality and the wealthy gaming the system has become a defining issue of our generation.

However, personally, I still believe that aging and financial status doesn't guarantee a shift towards conservatism at any level. Studies don't support the aging aspect at least. Millennials are not really all that fiscally liberal right now, sure, but just because they aren't does not mean they will trend even more towards fiscal conservatism down the road.

Millennials who make good money tend to oppose redistributive policy. This means single-payer healthcare, etc. This has been shown more than once. This doesn't mean they'll be Republicans, as you can see in Colorado that there are a significant group of Dems who oppose single-payer, but I don't think you're going to see huge numbers of high-earning Millennials willingly vote their money away, at least not with the polling data that's out there right now.

Polls show them favoring single payer. They just don't want high taxes to go along with it. Ideally they'd prefer something like cutting military expenditures in favor of healthcare, so as to not raise taxes, like Canada.

[Person Man]

Fiscally, yes. There are already many signs that Millennials on the "from each according to his ability" side of things already tend to oppose redistribution. This group will grow in number and influence as Millennials get older and wealthier.

Socially, I'm not really sure.

But one has to ask, even if they are somewhat fiscally moderate/conservative, how does that apply to policies? Just because you are fiscally conservative doesn't necessarily mean you are against, say, single-payer healthcare, or expanding social security, and so on. Millennials have shown greater openness to such proposals and generally favor government in many aspects more than other generations. Millennials are also open to taxes on the wealthy, and that is hardly surprising given the age we have grown up in, where inequality and the wealthy gaming the system has become a defining issue of our generation.

However, personally, I still believe that aging and financial status doesn't guarantee a shift towards conservatism at any level. Studies don't support the aging aspect at least. Millennials are not really all that fiscally liberal right now, sure, but just because they aren't does not mean they will trend even more towards fiscal conservatism down the road.

Millennials who make good money tend to oppose redistributive policy. This means single-payer healthcare, etc. This has been shown more than once. This doesn't mean they'll be Republicans, as you can see in Colorado that there are a significant group of Dems who oppose single-payer, but I don't think you're going to see huge numbers of high-earning Millennials willingly vote their money away, at least not with the polling data that's out there right now.

Polls show them favoring single payer. They just don't want high taxes to go along with it. Ideally they'd prefer something like cutting military expenditures in favor of healthcare, so as to not raise taxes, like Canada.

Takes are actually lower there. General rule is, whatever bracket you are in here, you will pay one bracket lower there.