Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Maine

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

Safe Clinton: 92
Likely Clinton: 0
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 35
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 41

Clinton: 101
Trump: 82
Toss-Up: 35

Predictions

Clinton: 136
Trump: 82

Maine: Safe D, 56-39 Clinton. Looks like quite a few people are changing their votes (which is good to see) in a more Clinton friendly direction, especially with Georgia. Also I'm going to say if you missed it check out the Louisiana thread. Not to be annoying but it only got 64 votes, which is a new low for this series on this board.

[dspNY]

Likely D

Clinton 52, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 3

1st CD: Safe D
2nd CD: Lean D

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe D.

✓ Clinton: 55.7%
Trump: 40.9%

[Gass3268]

Safe D

ME-2 is Likely D

[Xing]

A few things about Maine. First of all, it's trended Democratic recently (at the presidential level) so there's no reason it would suddenly become competitive this year. While it has elected quite a few Republicans at the local level, that doesn't make it a battleground (WV isn't a swing state) and it tends to elect Republicans like Susan Collins, not Donald Trump. I think Trump is actually a poor fit for Maine, especially ME-01.

Safe D, Clinton wins 56-40.

[Nyvin]

Statewide it's obviously safe D, Clinton.    Trump is not winning Maine....period.

[tinman64]

Likely D statewide and CD-02.

Clinton 52
Trump 41
Others 7

[Spark]

Likely D.

Clinton 52
Trump 45

ME-02 is toss-up

Trump 42
Clinton 38

[evergreenarbor]

ME (at large): Safe D. Clinton 54, Trump 37, Johnson 7, others 2.

ME-01: Safe D. Clinton 58, Trump 33, Johnson 6, others 3.

ME-02: Safe D (barely). Clinton 50, Trump 41, Johnson 7, others 2.

[ProudModerate2]

Statewide = Likely D.
ME-02 = Possibly Lean D.

[AGA]

ME (at large): Safe D. Clinton 54, Trump 37, Johnson 7, others 2.

ME-01: Safe D. Clinton 58, Trump 33, Johnson 6, others 3.

ME-02: Safe D (barely). Clinton 50, Trump 41, Johnson 7, others 2.

ME-2 safe D? Wasn't there a poll that had Trump up by one point there?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Probably Safe D. Hard to imagine Trump winning Maine when Hillary is leading in New Hampshire by 10% or more right now. 1st CD is definitely Safe D, 2nd CD either Lean D or Likely D.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Safe D
Clinton 50-42-8

[ElectionsGuy]

So... will the individual CDs be voted on in separate threads?

Yes.

[Seriously?]

ME (at large): Safe D. Clinton 54, Trump 37, Johnson 7, others 2.

ME-01: Safe D. Clinton 58, Trump 33, Johnson 6, others 3.

ME-02: Safe D (barely). Clinton 50, Trump 41, Johnson 7, others 2.

Trump +9 should technically put it into the Lean Camp. If you use the following metrics.

0-5 Tossup
6-10 Lean
11-15 Likely
16+ Safe

My guess is ME-01 - Safe; ME-02 Lean D; ME (at large) Likely D.

[Tiger front]

Safe D, 55-38.

[Breton Racer]

Maine Safe D
Overall:
Clinton/Kaine-54%
Trump/Pence-32%
Johnson/Weld-10%
Stein/Baraka-3%

ME 1st
Clinton/Kaine-58%
Trump/Pence-28%
Johnson/Weld-7%
Stein/Baraka-5%

ME 2nd
Clinton/Kaine-47%
Trump/Pence-36%
Johnson/Weld-14%
Stein/Baraka-2%

[AGA]

Changing Maine to Likely D in light of recent polling.

[Maxwell]

Despite the closing of the polls in the state, I would still be shocked to see Clinton lose Maine as a whole thanks to beautiful ME-1.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I think ME is likely D if not safe D.  I do think Trump has made real inroads in ME-2 and may get the 1 EV that comes with carrying it. 

The question is:  Why now?  Why the shift in ME-2 now?  I understand it's the more rural district and there's a real rural/urban divide this year, moreso than ever before, but is that it?  Is this the manifestation of some sort of rivalry between Gov. Paul LePage (Trump supporter) and Susan Collins (#NeverTrump, probably a secret Hillary supporter)?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Statewide, Likely D Clinton 52-45

[peterthlee]

Statewide Safe D-Solid
Clinton 58-38-4

[NOVA Green]

Shifting from Lean D to Likely D....

Was a virtual tossup between Likely and Safe D, but I think that with ME-02 being a tossup and ME-01 looking like a +15 C, not to mention 3rd Party support in a state where Independent Parties typically perform well, I'm not confident that Clinton will win by +10% statewide.