Donald Trump’s Red-State Problem

[pppolitics]

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

[psychprofessor]

The question becomes: will these educated Whites return to the Republican party after Trump loses, or does Hillary begin a demographic realignment?

If Trump is a sore loser and becomes the mouthpiece of the Republican party after his loss, I can see a lot of these voters fleeing the Republican party for good.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The question becomes: will these educated Whites return to the Republican party after Trump loses, or does Hillary begin a demographic realignment?

If Trump is a sore loser and becomes the mouthpiece of the Republican party after his loss, I can see a lot of these voters fleeing the Republican party for good.

The GOP has no reason whatsoever to show this man respect or deference if he loses.  The populist wave Trump has created/ridden may persist, and may continue to give the party headaches, but the educated base of the party is not going to jump ship.

[pppolitics]

The question becomes: will these educated Whites return to the Republican party after Trump loses, or does Hillary begin a demographic realignment?

If Trump is a sore loser and becomes the mouthpiece of the Republican party after his loss, I can see a lot of these voters fleeing the Republican party for good.

Trump is accelerating a trend that was already happening: non-college educated whites moving toward the Republicans while college educated whites moving toward the Democrats.

[Redban]

The question becomes: will these educated Whites return to the Republican party after Trump loses, or does Hillary begin a demographic realignment?

If Trump is a sore loser and becomes the mouthpiece of the Republican party after his loss, I can see a lot of these voters fleeing the Republican party for good.

Trump is accelerating a trend that was already happening: non-college educated whites moving toward the Republicans while college educated whites moving toward the Democrats.

Romney won college graduates by 4% last election.

[Redban]

The question becomes: will these educated Whites return to the Republican party after Trump loses, or does Hillary begin a demographic realignment?

If Trump is a sore loser and becomes the mouthpiece of the Republican party after his loss, I can see a lot of these voters fleeing the Republican party for good.

Trump is accelerating a trend that was already happening: non-college educated whites moving toward the Republicans while college educated whites moving toward the Democrats.

Romney won college graduates by 4% last election.

Romney was the dead cat bounce, though.  The long term trend has been there since at least 1992.

Bush 2004 won college graduates by 16%, Bush 2000 won them by 11%, Dole lost them by just 2%,  and Bush 1992 lost by them by just 3%.

Where is the long-term trend that has been there since at least 1992?

[Gass3268]

Yeah, I imagine Sanders would be ahead in states like KS/MT/UT/MO now.

I can only imagine what Obama 08 vs Trump 16 would have looked like in some places.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is accelerating a trend that was already happening: non-college educated whites moving toward the Republicans while college educated whites moving toward the Democrats.

Romney won college graduates by 4% last election.

Romney was the dead cat bounce, though.  The long term trend has been there since at least 1992.

Bush 2004 won college graduates by 16%, Bush 2000 won them by 11%, Dole lost them by just 2%,  and Bush 1992 lost by them by just 3%.

Where is the long-term trend that has been there since at least 1992?

There is no trend.  There are differing levels of support depending on the GOP candidate.  Highly educated conservatives tend to favor neoconservative, globalist, interventionist, nation-building positions.  George W was a poster boy for this.  Donald Trump is their worst nightmare.

Exit Donald Trump, re-enter the educated Right, given the right candidate.

[hopper]

Well Nate Silver's "Polls-Plus Model" shows Trump leading in Kansas and Utah by 13 points in both states. Even in "Now Cast" Trump leads in Kansas by 8 and in Utah by 10 points.

Georgia and Arizona-I think everybody knows those states might go D at the Presidential Level if future Republican Presidential Candidates don't modify their policies. Georgia has a Black Population that is nearly 2.5 times the National Average at 31%(vs the US's 13% average) and Hispanics are a growing demographic in Arizona.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Hillary hasn't even gotten out the Obama base. Just like in the Romney election, I was very clear to Romney supporters - "Obama is going to lose voters, but that doesn't mean that Romney is going to win. Romney still has to turn out the Republican base." Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Romney lost voters from McCain and the Republicans lost even though Obama did much more poorly in 2012 than in 2008.

I see the same happening with Hillary. Hillary loses voters over Obama, and Trump loses because the GOP base refuses to vote for him.

Honestly, I don't see why Democrats are crowing about a demographic 'realignment' when the 2012 numbers were lower than the 2008 numbers.

[Virginiá]

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Hillary hasn't even gotten out the Obama base. Just like in the Romney election, I was very clear to Romney supporters - "Obama is going to lose voters, but that doesn't mean that Romney is going to win. Romney still has to turn out the Republican base." Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Romney lost voters from McCain and the Republicans lost even though Obama did much more poorly in 2012 than in 2008.

I see the same happening with Hillary. Hillary loses voters over Obama, and Trump loses because the GOP base refuses to vote for him.

Honestly, I don't see why Democrats are crowing about a demographic 'realignment' when the 2012 numbers were lower than the 2008 numbers.

I don't get what you mean. In terms of support gauged by polls, she is doing just fine with the Obama coalition. African American, Hispanic, non-white in general, Millennials, single women (women in general actually) all have high support for her last I checked. She may do a little/a lot better or a little worse, but that's as expected.

Not all elections are a straight up continuation of previous coalitions, either. If, say, Hillary were to lose support among African Americans relative to 2012, then chances are she will make it up with both increased turnout and support among Hispanic voters. It's possible Hillary locks in portions of other demographics and thus augments Obama's coalition, but we won't know that yet. Either way, my point is that turning out every last bit of Obama's coalition doesn't matter if Hillary makes her own contributions to said coalition and makes up for any losses.

As for the college-educated white realignment, I don't see how we can know for sure until we have several more elections to compare data from. However, a Democrat winning a majority of that demographic is very significant in its own regard and at least to me signifies something larger, as even LBJ didn't capture a majority of them. No Democrat has since at least the 50s.

[angus]

dead cat bounce

weird turn of phrase.

I had to look that one up.  Funny how we treat cats in our language.  For example "there's more than one way to skin a cat."  Who skins cats?  "Let the cat out of the bag."  Who bags cats?  Skin him, bag him, drop him, and see if he bounces.  Seems a little sadistic even to me, and I don't care for cats. 

Well, we're not in Kansas anymore Toto.  Auntie Em might not trust Hillary Clinton, but she sure as hell isn't impressed with Donald Trump.  Uncle Henry is probably a Johnson voter.

[Dr. Arch]

dead cat bounce

weird turn of phrase.

I had to look that one up.  Funny how we treat cats in our language.  For example "there's more than one way to skin a cat."  Who skins cats?  "Let the cat out of the bag."  Who bags cats?  Skin him, bag him, drop him, and see if he bounces.  Seems a little sadistic even to me, and I don't care for cats. 

Well, we're not in Kansas anymore Toto.  Auntie Em might not trust Hillary Clinton, but she sure as hell isn't impressed with Donald Trump.  Uncle Henry is probably a Johnson voter.

It's a mixture of metaphorical language use and forgotten or embedded cultural references. There's quite a number of them in all languages and sometimes, like cats in English, they follow particular themes. It's certainly fascinating how we create and interpret these so casually as native speakers.

[Nyvin]

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Hillary hasn't even gotten out the Obama base. Just like in the Romney election, I was very clear to Romney supporters - "Obama is going to lose voters, but that doesn't mean that Romney is going to win. Romney still has to turn out the Republican base." Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Romney lost voters from McCain and the Republicans lost even though Obama did much more poorly in 2012 than in 2008.

I see the same happening with Hillary. Hillary loses voters over Obama, and Trump loses because the GOP base refuses to vote for him.

Honestly, I don't see why Democrats are crowing about a demographic 'realignment' when the 2012 numbers were lower than the 2008 numbers.

Hillary is without a doubt improving with female voters, especially female voters with college degrees (If Hillary wins a landslide...it will be because of this group).    

Sure, she'll drop in the AA vote a smidge, but that's kinda to be expected.    

Trump is digging his own grave with hispanics,  but still I don't see her "losing" anything there.

What else is there that's the "Obama base"?    

[Ebsy]

Polls are showing Trump consistently doing worse with black voters than Obama did in 2012.

[angus]

It's a mixture of metaphorical language use and forgotten or embedded cultural references. There's quite a number of them in all languages and sometimes, like cats in English, they follow particular themes. It's certainly fascinating how we create and interpret these so casually as native speakers.

It's interesting.  I've looked up the etymology of "raining cats and dogs" as well those for the morbid ones such as "saved by the bell", "dead ringer", and "graveyard shift."

I just have never or heard anyone reference a dead cat bouncing, although I have heard that "you can't swing a dead cat without hitting" something or other.

[Dr. Arch]

It's a mixture of metaphorical language use and forgotten or embedded cultural references. There's quite a number of them in all languages and sometimes, like cats in English, they follow particular themes. It's certainly fascinating how we create and interpret these so casually as native speakers.

It's interesting.  I've looked up the etymology of "raining cats and dogs" as well those for the morbid ones such as "saved by the bell", "dead ringer", and "graveyard shift."

I just have never or heard anyone reference a dead cat bouncing, although I have heard that "you can't swing a dead cat without hitting" something or other.

It won't be long now when newer generations will be asking "Why do we hang up our phones when we disconnect the call? How do you hang phones exactly and how does that stop the call?"

And we'll be shaking our heads

[Bismarck]

Yeah, I imagine Sanders would be ahead in states like KS/MT/UT/MO now.

Kansas and Utah would not vote for a socialist.

[RINO Tom]

The question becomes: will these educated Whites return to the Republican party after Trump loses, or does Hillary begin a demographic realignment?

If Trump is a sore loser and becomes the mouthpiece of the Republican party after his loss, I can see a lot of these voters fleeing the Republican party for good.

Trump is accelerating a trend that was already happening: non-college educated whites moving toward the Republicans while college educated whites moving toward the Democrats.

Romney won college graduates by 4% last election.

Romney was the dead cat bounce, though.  The long term trend has been there since at least 1992.

Bush 2004 won college graduates by 16%, Bush 2000 won them by 11%, Dole lost them by just 2%,  and Bush 1992 lost by them by just 3%.

Where is the long-term trend that has been there since at least 1992?

There isn't one, Skill is just COMPLETELY convinced Democrats will become this party of elites and multiculturalism while everyone in the GOP will resemble the Duck Dynasty guys.  Of course, this won't happen at all.

[RINO Tom]

The question becomes: will these educated Whites return to the Republican party after Trump loses, or does Hillary begin a demographic realignment?

If Trump is a sore loser and becomes the mouthpiece of the Republican party after his loss, I can see a lot of these voters fleeing the Republican party for good.

Trump is accelerating a trend that was already happening: non-college educated whites moving toward the Republicans while college educated whites moving toward the Democrats.

Romney won college graduates by 4% last election.

Romney was the dead cat bounce, though.  The long term trend has been there since at least 1992.

Bush 2004 won college graduates by 16%, Bush 2000 won them by 11%, Dole lost them by just 2%,  and Bush 1992 lost by them by just 3%.

Where is the long-term trend that has been there since at least 1992?

There isn't one, Skill is just COMPLETELY convinced Democrats will become this party of elites and multiculturalism while everyone in the GOP will resemble the Duck Dynasty guys.  Of course, this won't happen at all.

Exactly what else do you possibly think is happening this year?  And the nationalist GOP coalition still includes a substantial minority of people with college degrees and above average incomes.  The real chasm is with postgrads.  Basically, the 2015-2020's US Dem coalition = current UK Remain coalition, adjusted for a more diverse country.

THIS YEAR.  You are willingly ignoring the DECIDEDLY progressive turn the Democrats took this year, specifically on economics.  They aren't moving center, much less right, they're pushing hard left.  Hillary is quite literally attacking Trump on being "secretly for free trade" and highlighting his history of outsourcing jobs, dude; watch her ads.  While she could be painting him strictly as an alt-right nut job (which, of course, she's also doing), she's running ads portraying him as an out-of-touch billionaire who will give tax cuts to his rich buddies, much as Romney was portrayed, and Clinton is facing ZERO resistance from her party on this course of action.  There is simply no appetite in the Democratic Party for this globalist, upper crust party you're imagining; in fact, Sanders' candidacy and Clinton's taking up of most of his ideas, shows a flat-out rejection by Democrats themselves of such a realignment.  Trump's own VP is pro-TPP, and Republicans in Congress will continue to push for free trade, while most Democrats will continue to vote against it; it would take a MASSIVE flip flop of unprecedented proportions for the elected members of Congress to vote how you're envisioning on that issue.  Donald Trump is about to be destroyed, and his ideology (which, again, simply isn't coherent and his supporters' ideologies are even less so) is going to fly right out the window with his exit.

George Romney didn't become a Democrat after 1964.  Neither did Nelson Rockefeller or William Scranton.  They protested the nominee, didn't vote for him and returned right back to the fold once he was demolished in November.  More Democrats voted for Sanders than Republicans did for Trump, friend; and Hillary's decidedly progressive campaign which shows absolutely zero signs of trying to appeal to Republicans on economic issues, has Democrats united behind her, while Trump is facing rejection by multiple Republicans.  These Republicans aren't voting for Hillary because they agree with her or because they're flirting with becoming Democrats, and it's frankly amazing some of you can't see this: they quite literally don't think Donald Trump in the White House is something we can allow to happen!

[Wisconsin+17]

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Total vote for Hillary as a percentage will be lower than Obama 2008, and Obama 2012. But she'll win comfortably as turnout will be down from Romney 2012, and from McCain in 2008. 

Calling it now. It's less about the Democrat 'coalition', and everything to do with Republican mismanagement.

[Virginiá]

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Total vote for Hillary as a percentage will be lower than Obama 2008, and Obama 2012. But she'll win comfortably as turnout will be down from Romney 2012, and from McCain in 2008. 

Calling it now. It's less about the Democrat 'coalition', and everything to do with Republican mismanagement.

https://www.brookings.edu/2016/07/08/why-clinton-and-trump-may-increase-voter-turnout-in-2016/

Seems like there is at least a modicum of data that suggests turnout will be high, possibly between 2012 and 2008 levels. Negativity could drive it down a bit, but on the other hand, many perceive Trump as seriously unfit and dangerous for office, which could mitigate dampened turnout. Minority turnout, especially Hispanics, seems ripe for a surge as well.

What exactly is your reasoning for your conclusion here?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Hillary's -27 favorables - and Johnson doing better than expected. If the election is not seen as close - which I expect will be the coverage, then folks who would rather vote for someone else or stay home, will.

As for Hispanics - it's doubtful they will turnout big for Hillary in the end. Even if Trump is driving up folks - folks are far more likely to turn out FOR someone than AGAINST someone else.

That being said, Trump is terrible and conservatives are happy letting him go down with the ship.

[Maxwell]

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Hillary's -27 favorables - and Johnson doing better than expected. If the election is not seen as close - which I expect will be the coverage, then folks who would rather vote for someone else or stay home, will.

As for Hispanics - it's doubtful they will turnout big for Hillary in the end. Even if Trump is driving up folks - folks are far more likely to turn out FOR someone than AGAINST someone else.

That being said, Trump is terrible and conservatives are happy letting him go down with the ship.

That's actually not true - RCP has her favorables at -10.