Which House Upset Surprise is Most Likely?

[socaldem]

If 2016 is a landslide election for the Dems, which GOP incumbents unexpectedly go down to defeat?

Each of the above districts (except AR-02) features entrenched Republicans in territory that could potentially be very unfriendly to the GOP come 2016.

NJ-02 is one of the most Democratic GOP-held seats in the nation. The Dem isn't raising much money but being a warm body in a district that may have a personal vendetta against Trump may be enough. Meanwhile, he's going to be blown out in the Portland (WA-03) as well as the diverse L.A. suburbs (CA-39).

Will Clinton's connections to Little Rock create a boost in AR-02? Will there be a huge anti-Trump backlash in heavily hispanic NM-02?

What other under-the-radar races might feature upsets?

[Miles]

CA-39, as the demographics there were already worsening for Rs even before Trump.

[ElectionsGuy]

CA-39, not only is the area bad for Trump demographically but also with no Senate Republican running Royce and other SoCal Republicans might be in more danger than previously anticipated.

[publicunofficial]

CA-39, not only is the area bad for Trump demographically but also with no Senate Republican running Royce and other SoCal Republicans might be in more danger than previously anticipated.

I'd agree with this.

In regards to WA-03, Trump's under performance in Vancouver might be balanced out by overperformance in places like Lewis County, and Kelso-Longview.

[Maxwell]

I voted New Mexico because hispanic backlash, but I definitely could see California as well.

As much as I'd like New Jersey's 2nd, I think the seat is Lobiondo's as long as he wants it.

[socaldem]

CA-39, not only is the area bad for Trump demographically but also with no Senate Republican running Royce and other SoCal Republicans might be in more danger than previously anticipated.

I'd agree with this.

In regards to WA-03, Trump's under performance in Vancouver might be balanced out by overperformance in places like Lewis County, and Kelso-Longview.

I agree with both points.

The only caveat on CA-39 is that Royce did quite well in the open primary. He received just over 60% of the vote.

That said, the up-ballot and down-ballot dynamics are awful for the GOP here. Not only is there no senate GOPer running but the more GOP-friendly Senate Dem is Loretta Sanchez who had previously represented portions of the district and is anathema to Orange County GOPers.

Former Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva is mounting a very aggressive comeback bid in Fullerton-based AD65 (which makes up about 1/2 of the district). Meanwhile, Dems hope to take over the overlapping state senate district. Murdock was previously mayor of Brea, one of the more republican portions of the district.

If he can stay competitive in the Orange County portions of the district, the sliver of L.A. County--the heavily Chinese-American South San Gabriel Valley neighborhoods of Hacienda Heights, Walnut, and Diamond Bar--will put him over the top.

One final note--Orange County has a fairly sizable GOP-leaning business-oriented Muslim-American community. These reliable GOP voters will definitely not be voting for Trump and Trump-enablers.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

LoBiondo is entrenched and popular. NJ-2 is safe.

On the other hand, if Trumpocalypse is as bad as it looks, that plus the D vs. D senate race could sweep out CA-39.

[Kingpoleon]

The third or the fifth. Beutler and LoBiondo are very popular, and Hill's district is R+8.

PVI of all districts:
Arkansas's 2nd: R+8
California's 39th: R+5
New Jersey's 2nd: D+1
New Mexico's 2nd: R+5
Washington's 3rd: R+4/2(conflicting accounts on Wikipedia)

LoBiondo looks vulnerable, but here's his recent re election bids:
2014: 61.7% v. 37.0%(Bill Hughes, Jr.: Former federal prosecutor and son of Rep. William Hughes)
2012: 57.7% V. 40.3%(Cassandra Shober: office manager)
2008: 59.1% v. 39.1%(Dave Kurkowski: city councilman of Cape May)

Beutler's last three:
2010*: 53.0% v. 47.0%(Dennis Heck: then state rep.; now U. S. Rep.)
2012: 60.4% v. 39.6%(Jon Haugen: commercial pilot); over performed Romney by 11%
2014: 61.5% v. 38.5%(Bob Dingethal; businessman and former Cantwell aide)
*[Then D+0]

Neither of their opponents are particularly stronger than any previous ones, IMO.

[Vosem]

Royce seems popular enough in CA-39 that it's unlikely for the district to go D as long as he's there, whereas Pearce's district has gone D in the fairly recent past (by double-digits in 2008) and he seems like a bit of a worse fit. Went with New Mexico.

All the others are an order of magnitude less likely.

[hurricanehink]

As a resident of NJ-2, there has been negligible attention to the house race. Most people I talk to are content with LoBiondo, given that he always provides beach replenishment funding. That being said, several casinos have closed in the past few years, and the OP is right, there is a bit of a personal vendetta against Trump. Coupled with the familiarity of the Clinton brand and the good old days of the '90s, Cole may have a shot, but he'll be dragged across the finish line, not because of his own campaign (which I've barely seen any evidence of).

[heatcharger]

VA-10 would kind of be an upset but not too improbable. Republicans have held this seat for 30+ years and if she lost it'd suspend Comstock's political career here for a while.

Of the list I picked CA-39 because demographics.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If the dems have the money, they should try CA-49. Issa was very weak in the open primary.

I say "if they have the money" because Issa is very rich.

[Xing]

Definitely CA-39. WA-03 used to be very competitive, but was redrawn to be much more Republican-friendly.

[IceSpear]

Probably NM-02. Ed Royce dominated the primary even though the electorate was pretty D-friendly.