DCCC Internals Appear to Confirm Trumpocalypse

[publicunofficial]

https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/763376173296525312?s=09

According to DCCC internal polling on the presidential race in key House races:

CA-10 (Denham): Clinton +6 (+3 over Obama 2012)
CA-25 (Knight): Clinton +25 (+27!!!)
CO-06 (Coffman): Clinton +14 (+11)
FL-07 (Mica): Clinton +13 (+14)
FL-26 (Curbelo) Clinton +24 (+13)
IL-10 (Dold) Clinton +31 (+15)
MN-03 (Paulsen) Clinton +23 (+24!!!)

All are suburban R-held districts, with all of them except CA-25 and FL-07 being seats Obama carried in 2012. If these polls are true, none of these incumbents (With the exception of maybe Denham) could possibly hold on.

[Brittain33]

Coffman's anti-Trump ad didn't come from nowhere....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Junk polls obviously. The swing isn't going to be like that.

[Green Line]

Why didnt they release results for the actual races that they supposidly care about this November.  Very telling!

[publicunofficial]

I think Coffman, Denham and Mica can definitely survive.

For the record; here's how the incumbents performed vs. Romney back in 2012:

Denham: +5
Coffman: +1
Mica: +9 (Under old district lines)
Dold: +8
Paulsen: +10

[Vega]

The Democrats are going to run out of California pickup opportunities soon.

[Heisenberg]

Coffman might be able to survive given his campaigning. Paulsen is like Ros-Lehtinen, LoBiondo, Reichert, etc. (an inoffensive, popular, entrenched moderate) so he can survive. Denham did really well in the jungle primary IIRC and Trump's deficit isn't so big, so he should win. Knight and Curbelo are in BIG trouble. While I imagine a lot of #NeverTrump Cubans in FL-26 will still vote for Curbelo, it won't be enough, and his district (as well as Mica's) moved a little to the left with redistricting, so that's not good. Not sure about Dold, he can overperform, and Kirk (popular in IL-10) is on the statewide ticket, but it may not be enough. I'm beginning to get a little worried, but this is an internal, and we've still got 3 months to go.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Internals.

[Virginiá]

This is great, but I want to see non-internals from reliable outfits before I get too giddy.

Junk polls obviously. The swing isn't going to be like that.

Wulfric you really have no idea what the swings are going to be.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is great, but I want to see non-internals from reliable outfits before I get too giddy.

Junk polls obviously. The swing isn't going to be like that.

Wulfric you really have no idea what the swings are going to be.

No district, except for the redrawn ones in FL/VA, and MAYBE somewhere in Utah, is going to have a +27 D Swing.

[Heisenberg]

This is great, but I want to see non-internals from reliable outfits before I get too giddy.

Junk polls obviously. The swing isn't going to be like that.

Wulfric you really have no idea what the swings are going to be.

No district, except for the redrawn ones in FL/VA, and MAYBE somewhere in Utah, is going to have a +27 D Swing.

Wulfric, I totally agree with you. The nation is too polarized for such a strong swing like that to occur (other than in redrawn districts of course). No way will the swing be D+14, let alone D+27 anywhere. Internal junk polls.

[heatcharger]

Just did a DCCC poll here in VA-10. Trump will lose this district without any doubt in my mind. The question is does Comstock go down as well.

[Miles]

^ VA-10 is actually my district, and it needs to be a big target for Democrats. Would be nice to knock out Comstock, especially if she's eyeing Kaine's Senate seat.

[Virginiá]

No district, except for the redrawn ones in FL/VA, and MAYBE somewhere in Utah, is going to have a +27 D Swing.

Let's take this just as an example:

http://www.businessinsider.de/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-polls-2016-8?r=US&IR=T

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If we're seeing such huge swings in portions of the electorate now, and if on election day Clinton sees such a swing even remotely close to that, don't you think it would be reflected in individual districts? Particularly in areas with more educated voters? A lot of these polls are showing some interesting cross tabs and you can't have a state/national poll with those results but not reflected at all in individual districts.

My gut tells me that if those districts see decent swings, it won't be as large as this poll, but given the data we've been seeing, it wouldn't surprise me if certain areas saw large changes due to the types of voters that live there.

I don't know enough about these districts to say a whole lot, but if the coalitions really get scrambled like these polls are showing, then districts experiencing large shifts (maybe not this large though) is not only not impossible, but likely.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, it's obvious that a lot of people are having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that a 6-point swing or more nationally - especially when you consider that there are plenty of areas where Trump is going to do better than Romney - means that there'll be plenty of areas where Clinton will overperform Obama's margin by double-digits, and yes: some of those areas will be entire congressional districts.

[heatcharger]

Yeah, it's obvious that a lot of people are having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that a 6-point swing or more nationally - especially when you consider that there are plenty of areas where Trump is going to do better than Romney - means that there'll be plenty of areas where Clinton will overperform Obama's margin by double-digits, and yes: some of those areas will be entire congressional districts.

It's some of the same people who think Trump could win WI or PA, or back in the day "Obama will never win Indiana. Bush won it by 20 points! Safe R."

Big swings can still happen people.

[Potus]

I know the Trumpocalypse is real, but it's mostly a consequence of his numbers numbers. Republicans and conservatives aren't saying they'll vote for him when the polls come around. Hillary's numbers have only gone up a few points while Trump's have dropped drastically.

I'm wondering if Hillary is doing much better than Obama in terms of absolute percentage rather than margin.

[DrScholl]

CA-25 has lost a Republican registration advantage rapidly since the district was drawn. It was about +5 Republican in registration and know it's tied down to a decimal point. Lancaster and Palmdale have a lot of Black and Hispanic voters, while Santa Clarita is the sort of suburban territory Trump will tank in. We can quibble about the margin, but CA-25 is not going to vote for Trump.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If those numbers keep up in California, Issa losing re-election could end up being the Portillo Moment of the 2016 election. He's got the unlucky distinction of running against a 30+ year Marine Colonel in a district containing Camp Pendleton and a lot of affluent white people mad at Trump

[publicunofficial]

Look at Kerry 04/Obama 08 comparisons, and you'll find districts with 20 point swings. It's not unheard of.

As for "lol internals", this isn't some rinky-dink polling firm hired by a struggling House campaign to show a close race to lure donors, this is the DCCC's in house pollster. Major campaign internals like these are some of the most accurate out there.

[publicunofficial]

CA-25 has lost a Republican registration advantage rapidly since the district was drawn. It was about +5 Republican in registration and know it's tied down to a decimal point. Lancaster and Palmdale have a lot of Black and Hispanic voters, while Santa Clarita is the sort of suburban territory Trump will tank in. We can quibble about the margin, but CA-25 is not going to vote for Trump.

Another factor in CA-25: High Mormon population.

[windjammer]

I'm wondering if Hillary is doing much better than Obama in terms of absolute percentage rather than margin.

It's possible, maybe likely in the end, depends about the third parties scores.

[ElectionsGuy]

These are all TERRIBLE districts for Trump so not surprising he gets destroyed.

[Suburbia]

If those numbers keep up in California, Issa losing re-election could end up being the Portillo Moment of the 2016 election. He's got the unlucky distinction of running against a 30+ year Marine Colonel in a district containing Camp Pendleton and a lot of affluent white people mad at Trump

True. Darrell Issa losing would be a big loss for the GOP and the conservative movement. Michael Portillo losing in the United Kingdom general parliamentary election, 1997 was a big defeated for an already divided and fractured Conservative Party. Portillo would have been the next Tory leader/Opposition Leader, and he would have given Tony Blair a run for his money at PMQs.