UT-4 Poll: Mia Love looks secure

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Love - 51%
Owens - 38%

http://www.sltrib.com/news/4218034-155/poll-mia-love-has-opened-a

[Suburbia]

She may win reelection, but it might be a little closer.

[windjammer]

The poll of 405 likely 4th District voters was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates between July 18 and Aug. 8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.87 percent.

Junk poll!

[Heisenberg]

Lean R. Anything can happen in three months, but there will be a lot of ticket splitters in Utah.

[Figueira]

The poll of 405 likely 4th District voters was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates between July 18 and Aug. 8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.87 percent.

Junk poll!

Yeah, this poll seems off. I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

Also Love has issues that are unrelated to Trump. I don't think Trump alone would put her in danger.

[Zioneer]

The poll of 405 likely 4th District voters was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates between July 18 and Aug. 8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.87 percent.

Junk poll!

Its a 3 week long poll? Seriously? Who does that?

To be honest though, Dan Jones is great for Utah polls most of the time, but every election cycle, they have one absolutely dumb poll. In 2012 it was giving Mia Love a double-digit lead over Matheson. This year its taking 3 weeks to do a poll with dubious numbers.

[jamestroll]

The poll of 405 likely 4th District voters was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates between July 18 and Aug. 8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.87 percent.

Junk poll!

Its a 3 week long poll? Seriously? Who does that?

To be honest though, Dan Jones is great for Utah polls most of the time, but every election cycle, they have one absolutely dumb poll. In 2012 it was giving Mia Love a double-digit lead over Matheson. This year its taking 3 weeks to do a poll with dubious numbers.

I am trusting Dan Jones less and less. Also Mia Love largely overpolled in 2014, with the exception of a BYU poll showing Owens narrowly in the lead.

I have done canvassing in West Jordan and Riverton, and many seem very open to Doug Owens.

Some volunteers wish Owens and Matheson ran in UT-02. While I see their point with Salt Lake City proper having a large chunk of it, UT-04 is still better. While it does not have a solid Democratic vote sink, people in Salt Lake County are fairly use to voting for and being governed by Democrats. You can not say the same thing about Davis and Washington Counties.

Utah really should see this year that they are not as conservative as they think they are. If they continue supporting Republicans non stop, I would be very disappointed.

The Democratic bench in the state is weak. There is only one Democrat who I think could win statewide in Utah, Ben McAdams.

[Zioneer]

The poll of 405 likely 4th District voters was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates between July 18 and Aug. 8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.87 percent.

Junk poll!

Its a 3 week long poll? Seriously? Who does that?

To be honest though, Dan Jones is great for Utah polls most of the time, but every election cycle, they have one absolutely dumb poll. In 2012 it was giving Mia Love a double-digit lead over Matheson. This year its taking 3 weeks to do a poll with dubious numbers.

I am trusting Dan Jones less and less. Also Mia Love largely overpolled in 2014, with the exception of a BYU poll showing Owens narrowly in the lead.

I have done canvassing in West Jordan and Riverton, and many seem very open to Doug Owens.

Some volunteers wish Owens and Matheson ran in UT-02. While I see their point with Salt Lake City proper having a large chunk of it, UT-04 is still better. While it does not have a solid Democratic vote sink, people in Salt Lake County are fairly use to voting for and being governed by Democrats. You can not say the same thing about Davis and Washington Counties.

Utah really should see this year that they are not as conservative as they think they are. If they continue supporting Republicans non stop, I would be very disappointed.

The Democratic bench in the state is weak. There is only one Democrat who I think could win statewide in Utah, Ben McAdams.

Indeed. Dan Jones seems to have a slight bias for Republicans, though occasionally it'll have a bias for Democrats. As I said, the 3 week long poll is bizarre, so I'm very wary of this poll in particular.

UT-04 is the best place for Democrats aspiring to Congress, yeah. Luz Robles tried in UT-02, and got something like 60-33 in Salt Lake City proper, but got the reverse in the district as a whole. That district is lost to us, and UT-04 is the future.

My guess is that Trump dragging down the enthusiasm among GOP voters in Utah will lead to the Democrats getting at least 5 state house seats, including the 3 they lost in 2014 by a tiny margin. I don't think we can win the Gubernatorial race or the Senate race, but we can definitely win UT-04 and put a small dent in the legislative super-majority.

And I would agree that Ben McAdams is one of our few statewide candidates, though I'd say Jim Matheson himself and Doug Owens (if he wins UT-04) are also good statewide candidates. Possibly Salt Lake District Attorney Sim Gill if he runs for AG and the AG turns out to be another John Swallow.

[jamestroll]

Gill's Margins in Salt Lake County are too small. But some conservatives I know in Utah County seem to be OK with him.

I think Sheriff Winder is another potential statewide or congressional possibility. But he lacks interest.

Do you know West Jordan well? For some reason, it is so Republican, but in my canvassing I have noticed that they are very open to Owens and especially McAdams in comparison to places like Bluffdale or Riverton. Any theories why?

Owens needs to win West Jordan by a comfortable margin to defeat Love.