Who will get more Republican votes?
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  Who will get more Republican votes?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who will get more Republican votes?
#1
Obama in 2008		  
#2
Hillary Clinton		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: Who will get more Republican votes?  (Read 718 times)
Iosif
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« on: August 12, 2016, 11:25:22 AM »
Obama got 9% of Republicans (32% of the electorate) in 2008.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2016, 12:10:50 PM »
Hillary for sure.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2016, 12:28:19 PM »
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xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2016, 12:37:22 PM »
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2016, 12:40:20 PM »
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Goldwater
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2016, 12:58:54 PM »
I wonder how many Obama Republicans still identify as Republican at this point.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2016, 01:29:33 PM »
Quote from: Goldwater on August 12, 2016, 12:58:54 PM
I wonder how many Obama Republicans still identify as Republican at this point.

Using Ice Spear's definition of party affiliation?  Probably almost none.  However, a lot of local offices in VT are controlled by the GOP, so I imagine a lot there, considering Romney won like one town!

Anyway, Hillary for SURE.  Not even close at all.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2016, 01:43:29 PM »
Quote from: Goldwater on August 12, 2016, 12:58:54 PM
I wonder how many Obama Republicans still identify as Republican at this point.

Among those who voted for him in 2008, but not 2012, probably quite a few. Among those who voted for him both times... probably not very many.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2016, 02:09:11 PM »
Quote from: Goldwater on August 12, 2016, 12:58:54 PM
I wonder how many Obama Republicans still identify as Republican at this point.

Ancedotal of course, but my mom is a Bush- Obama - Romney voter who plans on voting for Trump. I still voted Hillary.
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Iosif
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2016, 02:22:20 PM »
I don't doubt that Trump will lose more Republican votes than McCain. But how many of those will end up with Hillary?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2016, 02:24:10 PM »
Quote from: Iosif on August 12, 2016, 02:22:20 PM
I don't doubt that Trump will lose more Republican votes than McCain. But how many of those will end up with Hillary?

Yeah, I agree. Johnson and maybe even spy guy are gonna take a big chunk out of the non-Trump Republican vote.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2016, 11:13:55 PM »
Probably Obama, simply because Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2016, 08:37:58 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 12, 2016, 11:13:55 PM
Probably Obama, simply because Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary.

Weren't you previously saying that Johnson's ceiling was 2%?  Or are you expecting big things from McMullin?  Tongue
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2016, 08:45:15 AM »
Still Clinton.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2016, 10:00:36 AM »
Hillary due to college educated defections.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2016, 01:08:39 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on August 13, 2016, 08:37:58 AM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 12, 2016, 11:13:55 PM
Probably Obama, simply because Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary.

Weren't you previously saying that Johnson's ceiling was 2%?  Or are you expecting big things from McMullin?  Tongue

His polling has held up better than I expected, so I'm thinking more like 3-4% now. But it's not like it would take a massive third party vote among Republicans to hold Hillary under the 9% that Obama got.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2016, 02:16:17 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 13, 2016, 01:08:39 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on August 13, 2016, 08:37:58 AM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 12, 2016, 11:13:55 PM
Probably Obama, simply because Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary.

Weren't you previously saying that Johnson's ceiling was 2%?  Or are you expecting big things from McMullin?  Tongue

His polling has held up better than I expected, so I'm thinking more like 3-4% now. But it's not like it would take a massive third party vote among Republicans to hold Hillary under the 9% that Obama got.

Ah, maybe I misunderstood you then.  You said "Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary".  If 8% of Republicans vote for Clinton and 4% of them for Johnson or other third party candidates, then it's not true that "Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary".  But maybe by "more likely" you meant more likely to vote third party than in 2008.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2016, 02:43:40 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on August 13, 2016, 02:16:17 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 13, 2016, 01:08:39 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on August 13, 2016, 08:37:58 AM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 12, 2016, 11:13:55 PM
Probably Obama, simply because Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary.

Weren't you previously saying that Johnson's ceiling was 2%?  Or are you expecting big things from McMullin?  Tongue

His polling has held up better than I expected, so I'm thinking more like 3-4% now. But it's not like it would take a massive third party vote among Republicans to hold Hillary under the 9% that Obama got.

Ah, maybe I misunderstood you then.  You said "Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary".  If 8% of Republicans vote for Clinton and 4% of them for Johnson or other third party candidates, then it's not true that "Republicans dissatisfied with Trump are more likely to go third party than for Hillary".  But maybe by "more likely" you meant more likely to vote third party than in 2008.

Yeah, the latter is what I meant. If 8% vote Clinton and 4% vote third party, that would still be option 1 in the poll.
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