Which state is more likely to flip, Arizona or Georgia?

[Xing]

I think this is a legitimate question, at this point. I'm still going to say Arizona, since I think polling in Nevada and Florida is undersampling native Spanish speaking Latinos, and that could be the case for Arizona as well.

[Mallow]

I think this is a legitimate question, at this point. I'm still going to say Arizona, since I think polling in Nevada and Florida is undersampling native Spanish speaking Latinos, and that could be the case for Arizona as well.

Same. That being said, based on polling, GA is gonna be a lot closer than I expected.

[Dr. Arch]

I think this is a legitimate question, at this point. I'm still going to say Arizona, since I think polling in Nevada and Florida is undersampling native Spanish speaking Latinos, and that could be the case for Arizona as well.

Same. That being said, based on polling, GA is gonna be a lot closer than I expected.

[Suburbia]

Georgia will flip.

[The Other Castro]

If only one flips, I think it'll be Georgia.

[Goldwater]

Utah (normal)

[5280]

Georgia

[evergreenarbor]

Probably Arizona, but I think both are about equally likely to flip.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Arizona

[Redban]

Georgia -- this state has more educated voters; and it has a sizeable black population that will vote for Hillary by a 90-95% margin (they were the reason Obama came so close in 2008 and 2012).

Unlike the Hispanics in Arizona, the black population in Georgia is also more reliable in terms of turnout.

[elcorazon]

I think the hispanic vote is Hillary's true firewall. She takes Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado as a result - by 2020, I think Georgia will be more of a tossup than Arizona, but with Trump as the Republican, I think Arizona is more likely to swing this year.

[Dr. Arch]

I think the hispanic vote is Hillary's true firewall. She takes Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado as a result - by 2020, I think Georgia will be more of a tossup than Arizona, but with Trump as the Republican, I think Arizona is more likely to swing this year.

Freiwall

[ElectionsGuy]

Arizona. I think people are relying way too much on polls in Georgia, and most people believed those Clinton +4 and Clinton +7 ones. How realistic is it that Georgia will vote in line with Florida and Ohio?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html?action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

According to Upshot, Clinton has more to gain in GA, due to the college education. There's been a lack of non GOP polls showing Clinton up in Arizona (PPP, GQR had her down). The only ones showing a competitive race in AZ are GOP pollsters.