538: What a Clinton landslide would look like

[Virginiá]

Scenario 2 might just deliver Congress for us if voting patterns are even somewhat similar to 2012. We need somewhere between 7% - 8% win in the House PV to be competitive for a majority, and the higher we go the more likely it is that we break the GOP hold on the chamber. The days of mass split ticket voting are gone (for now) and there will be no 1996 scenario in this political climate.

That said, scenario 1 seems to be the most plausible outcome based on the current data. Scenario 2 seems like the best-case win, and even with a continuation of a Trump implosion, it seems more like to get a PV between S1 and S2.

I won't really even entertain scenario 3 right now. Not until Trump is discovered to be a serial killer with 300+ bodies on his hands, or running a human trafficking ring, or... whatever.