College Football 2016

[Santander]

So like... how bad is Sparty? Rutgers has a chance at a conference win after all!

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Glad to see UW vindicated thanks to MS State.

Too soon to say. Ohio State manhandled Nebraska more than Washington manhandled us.

[RINO Tom]

So like... how bad is Sparty? Rutgers has a chance at a conference win after all!

Lovie's first home B1G win!!  Second to come vs. Iowa!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Fortunately, the playoff picture is beginning to look absolutely crystal clear:

The Winner of the Iron Bowl (will win the SEC Title Game)
The Winner of the Big Ten Championship (Michigan, Ohio State, or Wisconsin)
Probably the Winner of the ACC Championship (Clemson, Virginia Tech, or North Carolina)
If Washington runs the table (or only loses to USC?), they take spot 4 (or 3 if we have an ACC surprise/Wisconsin). If Washington loses to Washington State (or Pac-12 Championship Game), the order of precedence appears to be:
1. A 1-loss Alabama [lol]
2. A 1-loss Michigan (with loss to Ohio State or Wisconsin)
3. A 1-loss Clemson (with loss in ACC title game)
4. A 1-loss Louisville
--
5. 10-2 Oklahoma / 13-0 Western Michigan / 11-2 Colorado or Washington State or Utah / 11-1 or 12-1 Washington - order to be determined later, but I think that's roughly it. The 15 teams with a genuine prayer - 9 of which control their own destiny and Louisville, who has a strong case if leaders win and Washington loses.

I will call Penn State, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Minnesota and Florida virtually eliminated at this stage - needing a miracle for an outright conference championship (or in UF's case just lacking any reason to deserve a spot). Penn State would probably be the most alive, needing 2 Michigan losses (lol). A&M and LSU are just fighting for NY6 eligibility.



It would be interesting to test the Wisconsin wins the B1G against Michigan/Wazzu wins Pac-12 scenario to see the 4th spot there effectively between Michigan and Louisville - solely because the Michigan loss comes so late.

The other issue some may have is putting a Virginia Tech or UNC as "In" with a win versus Clemson. Seeing as how the committee oddly put Virginia Tech ahead of UNC contrary to most other rankings (due to them holding the tiebreaker?), I think it's safe to say that they are preparing to put the ACC Winner in whether we see them as worthy or not - expect both to move up if they keep winning, especially VT, so that the leap is not very large. They were doing the same with Florida until the recent disaster. The only thing keeping them out would be Alabama losing the Iron Bowl or perhaps Michigan losing The Game paired with undefeated Washington, but I don't even know about those- would be debated quite extensively.

[To be honest, Washington looks clearly superior to Little Brother, but since Week 4, I have been fascinated with the possibility of Washington State winning, but a 1-loss Washington team creates some interesting scenarios.]

[7,052,770]

Glad to see UW vindicated thanks to MS State.

You are very welcome

However, I regret to inform you that I am a huge Mike Leach fanboy, so I'm rooting for the Cougars to beat Washington and take the Pac-12 for themselves. (And maybe sneak into the playoff?)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Penn did it! They pulled the upset of Harvard!! I nearly froze, but the offense finally put it together on the final drive to win it - amazing!

For the second straight year and for just the fourth time ever, we are faced with the prospect of three Ivy co-champions! Penn (@Cornell), Harvard (Yale), and Princeton (@Yale tomorrow, then Dartmouth) all have cupcakes on the schedule  to try and cinch it. Let's see if anyone wants to play spoiler! I don't suspect anyone can match the talent of that trio - Dartmouth and Yale are very down this year.


Tomorrow, Villanova seeks a share of the Colonial championship, but that would require an even bigger upset than tonight. With a playoff spot effectively locked up, that would just be icing.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

CHAOOOOOOS

[gespb19]

Going bowling, baby! 39-24 win over LaTech today. SMTTT.

[7,052,770]

Fun fact: The Egg Bowl is probably a play-in for the Independence Bowl. Yes, even though Mississippi State is 4-7 right now, our APR is probably high enough to sneak into a bowl with a win today, as there won't be enough 6-6+ teams to fill all 80 slots.

Not we deserve a bowl even if we win today, but I'll take the extra practices and game experience.

[7,052,770]

GOOD TRIUMPHS OVER EVIL!!!!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Fun fact: The Egg Bowl is probably a play-in for the Independence Bowl. Yes, even though Mississippi State is 4-7 right now, our APR is probably high enough to sneak into a bowl with a win today, as there won't be enough 6-6+ teams to fill all 80 slots.

Not we deserve a bowl even if we win today, but I'll take the extra practices and game experience.

Mississippi St. will probably go to a different bowl because, at 5-7, they will go to a bowl that is not filled with conference tie-ins, which won't be the Independence Bowl.  The SEC bowl tie-ins should go like this:

1. Playoff- Alabama
2. Sugar- Probably Auburn, but maybe Florida or LSU
3. Orlando- Auburn, Florida, or LSU
4-9. Birmingham office works with Charlotte, Nashville, Memphis, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Tampa to find the best fits (the six should be LSU/Florida, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky with a very remote chance that Vandy or SC replace UGA or UK).
10. Birmingham- Likely choice between Vanderbilt and South Carolina
11. Shreveport- Whichever one Birmingham doesn't want
12. APR- Mississippi St.

[7,052,770]

Yeah looks like Las Vegas Bowl against MWC Champion or Armed Forces Bowl vs. Navy.

Definitely hope it's the former, but obviously were in no position to complain about match ups

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Tuskegee lost Was really hoping for another classic between tUNA and TC for a National Semifinal position...The Lions can easily handle North Greenville, and I'm pretty optimistic about beating either of the Michigan schools if they get there. Potentially the first title appearance since 1995, which would truly be the capstone on 2016 being the absolute greatest.

My final four projection was Shepherd along with the three 1-seeds. All still alive this weekend. Though I'll be cheering for upsets on the lower have of the bracket. NW Missouri is just a machine right now.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Who would've thought four months ago Mark Helfrich would be fired from Oregon and Ed Orgeron would now be running LSU.

[OSR stands with Israel]

49ers should fire chip today so then Oregon can hire him

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH ALABAMA IS GOING DIVISION 1 OH MY GOSH OH MY GOSH OH MY GOSH! ALL THE YEARS I DREAMED THAT THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN, FINALLY THANK YOU FOOTBALL GODS THIS IS TOTALLY THE MOST FABULOUS EVENT OF THE CENTURY.

Get ready to get smashed! Wouldn't be shocked if they are Sun Belt before 2030!

Thank goodness the map I made and just had printed at The University of North Alabama and UC-San Diego on it!! Both will certainly be D1 by the end of the decade now! No reprint necessary =D =D =D

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

They really better win the Division 2 title one last time for good measure now.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

This is going to be one of those years where the top 10 moves around but we end up with the expected #1 and #2 in the championship.

I'm both happy and incredibly disappointed to know I was right on this.

[Green Line]

Very happy Iowa got the Outback Bowl.  They deserved it over trash Nebraska and their trash schedule.

[Santander]

Very happy Iowa got the Outback Bowl.  They deserved it over trash Nebraska and their trash schedule.

Iowa's schedule was not that much better than the Huskers'. Iowa obviously deserves the better bowl, but more on results rather than schedule.

[Green Line]

Very happy Iowa got the Outback Bowl.  They deserved it over trash Nebraska and their trash schedule.

Iowa's schedule was not that much better than the Huskers'. Iowa obviously deserves the better bowl, but more on results rather than schedule.

I meant more that Nebraska did not have any impressive wins at all.  But yeah you're right if Iowa had lost to Michigan you could have said the same about them.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Current Probabilities to win the championship based on betting lines:

Alabama: 70%
Ohio State: 14%
Clemson: 8%
Washington: 8%

Clemson seems slightly low, but overall pretty accurate. My bias says Alabama should be higher too, but I'll take 70% since it was an obscenely low <15% when I bought my futures.

If I were to assign odds to the other championships:

North Dakota State 64%
James Madison 12%
South Dakota State 10%
Eastern Washington 6%
Youngstown State 3%
Sam Houston State 3%
Richmond 1%
Wofford 1%

and

Northwest Missouri State 50%
North Alabama 35%
Ferris State 10%
Shepherd 5%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Current Probabilities to win the championship based on betting lines:

Alabama: 70%
Ohio State: 14%
Clemson: 8%
Washington: 8%

Clemson seems slightly low, but overall pretty accurate. My bias says Alabama should be higher too, but I'll take 70% since it was an obscenely low <15% when I bought my futures.

If I were to assign odds to the other championships:

North Dakota State 64%
James Madison 12%
South Dakota State 10%
Eastern Washington 6%
Youngstown State 3%
Sam Houston State 3%
Richmond 1%
Wofford 1%

and

Northwest Missouri State 50%
North Alabama 35%
Ferris State 10%
Shepherd 5%

I'm more confident in NDSU winning it for the sixth (?) straight year than I am in Alabama winning, though they are both overwhelming favorites.  Alabama does have a cakewalk semifinal, but an Alabama-Ohio St. final could be epic.

[Santander]

Go Buckeyes!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The difference with NDSU is that a) this is their worst team of the dynasty; b) they have to win 3 games as opposed to Alabama's 2; c) the gap between Alabama and the rest is much bigger even accounting for how overrated the SEC is in computer calculations; and most importantly d) they have to beat a South Dakota State team that they already lost to at home while an Eastern Washington team that also should've beaten them in Fargo had it not been for the missed EWU PAT (and the DeLuca pick 6 was very lucky) awaits them in the finals. NDSU really had no business winning that game, and Cooper Kupp would be the best player on the field. Eastern Washington would easily be the best team they faced all year, and that side of the bracket has all the good teams already eliminated. That is literally the difference between them being the #1 seed vs. #2 seed (and there is no difference between them in the FCS playoffs as far as home field goes).

I'm not ready to call EWU over Richmond definitively, but I can assure you EWU/NDSU in Frisco would be a classic battle if both managed to get there.