College Football 2016

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

10 more eliminated from playoff contention this week to bring us to exactly half of FBS out of the playoff picture. (ESPN has previously eliminated Cal and Miss St too, but I mean...if they win out, who knows?) Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss are on life support in addition to that pair. 64 remain, but many are barely breathing.

Next week's slate will bring us:

Cal @ Arizona State (52%) (possible elimination game for Cal)
Air Force @ Utah State (54%) (elimination game for AFA)
Arkansas (55%) vs. Texas A&M
West Virginia (56%) @ BYU
Syracuse @ Connecticut (57%)
Central Michigan (58%) @ Virginia (elimination game for CMU)
USC @ Utah (58%) (elimination game for USC)
Louisiana Tech (59%) @ MTSU
Nebraska (59%) @ Northwestern
LSU (59%) @ Auburn (elimination game for Auburn)
Florida State (60%) @ USF (elimination game for USF)
Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan (62%) (elimination game for both)
Western Illinois @ Northern Illinois (63%)
South Carolina (65%) @ Kentucky (elimination game for SC)
Wake Forest @ Indiana (65%)
Pitt @ UNC (68%) (elimination game for both)
Wisconsin @ Michigan State (68%)
Florida @ Tennessee (69%)
East Carolina @ Virignia Tech (70%) (elimination game for VT)
Washington (70%) @ Arizona (elimination game for Arizona)
Boise St (72%) @ Oregon St (elimination game for Boise)
Oklahoma St @ Baylor (74%) (elimination game for Oklahoma St)
Stanford (74%) @ UCLA (elimination game for UCLA)
Iowa (75%) @ Rutgers (elimination game for both)
Army (76%) @ Buffalo (elimination game for Army)
Clemson (77%) @ Georgia Tech
Georgia @ Ole Miss (78%) (elimination game for Ole Miss)

Penn State is projected to be eliminated
Notre Dame, Minnesota, TCU, Mississippi State and Kansas State are projected to safely survive another week.


Pretty terrible FCS slate features Samford @Chattanooga, Montana @Cal Poly, Eastern Washington @Northern Arizona, Colgate @Richmond, UND @Montana St, James Madison @Maine, Penn @Fordham, Portland State @Southern Utah, and Princeton @Lehigh. Maybe Albany @St. Francis. That's it for competitive top 50ish matches.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

How is USC not already eliminated? I mean conceivably they could meet with Stanford and beat them in the Pac-12 championship game, but why would the committee take on a two-loss USC team over a one-loss Big 12 or Houston (or even a one loss Clemson/Louisville/Florida St.)?

[Green Line]

How is USC not already eliminated? I mean conceivably they could meet with Stanford and beat them in the Pac-12 championship game, but why would the committee take on a two-loss USC team over a one-loss Big 12 or Houston (or even a one loss Clemson/Louisville/Florida St.)?

I don't think there's going to be a one-loss Big 12 team though, so maybe that has something to do with it.  They're just hanging on.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

How is USC not already eliminated? I mean conceivably they could meet with Stanford and beat them in the Pac-12 championship game, but why would the committee take on a two-loss USC team over a one-loss Big 12 or Houston (or even a one loss Clemson/Louisville/Florida St.)?

I mean, Houston could easily have 2 losses themselves and who knows what the Big 12 champion will have. A loss to the SEC Champion (#1) and a split with the runner-up of their own conference, and I mean...I'm just very cautious when eliminating. Unlike ESPN who wants to add teams back later on after elimination. It's called that for a reason. 0% means zilch.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

How is USC not already eliminated? I mean conceivably they could meet with Stanford and beat them in the Pac-12 championship game, but why would the committee take on a two-loss USC team over a one-loss Big 12 or Houston (or even a one loss Clemson/Louisville/Florida St.)?

I mean, Houston could easily have 2 losses themselves and who knows what the Big 12 champion will have. A loss to the SEC Champion (#1) and a split with the runner-up of their own conference, and I mean...I'm just very cautious when eliminating. Unlike ESPN who wants to add teams back later on after elimination. It's called that for a reason. 0% means zilch.

I understand that logic but I guess I'm not seeing a situation where any team gets in with more than one loss unless it's a conference champion, and even then, it would require the conference runner-ups to be worst than two losses. For example, if Clemson takes out Florida State, and Louisville and Clemson duel evenly (which seems very likely if Lamar Jackson continues to show he's the real deal) then I'm not going to take a two-loss conference champion over one of those two teams, especially if Ole Miss ends up coming in second in the SEC West.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'll try to chime in the discussion here as well.  If there is one thing I follow more closely than politics, it's college football! (I'm a total SEC homer)

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Utah and SC both look like crap.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Over/under on Orgeron straightening out LSU, beating Bama, and still not getting hired for the HC job?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Over/under on Orgeron straightening out LSU, beating Bama, and still not getting hired for the HC job?

Lol! I'll never forget how despicable USC was for not retaining him, and I hope they continue paying the price for it. The difference here is that he is the hometown kid this time around, so I really hope the attachment takes hold. He's more than earned it over his career.

Extremely sad to see Les go though. Should've taken the Michigan job when he had the chance. I definitely prefer him to Harbaugh.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Over/under on Orgeron straightening out LSU, beating Bama, and still not getting hired for the HC job?

Lol! I'll never forget how despicable USC was for not retaining him, and I hope they continue paying the price for it. The difference here is that he is the hometown kid this time around, so I really hope the attachment takes hold. He's more than earned it over his career.

Extremely sad to see Les go though. Should've taken the Michigan job when he had the chance. I definitely prefer him to Harbaugh.

I just found out that one of LSU's football news sites found out that LSU's AD reached out to Art Briles.

Dear God why. Why would anyone want that man near a college football program again.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This year seems potentially crazy enough that I think there is a reasonable chance that a two-loss team can get into the CFP.  I would not have fired Les Miles at this point if I were Joe Alleva and LSU.  If you brought him back at the end of last year, I would at least give him the year.  He was literally fired because of a tenth of a second!!

Meanwhile, it was a fun week of college football, particularly in the mid-afternoon timeslot.  There were a lot of really, really good games, but the most remarkable might be one that few paid attention to.  Leading 21-17 with one minute left, Western Kentucky kicked a field goal to go up 24-17 on Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt had no timeouts remaining and does not have the type of offense that can move the ball downfield with quick passes.  They do have a quarterback with a lot of potential, but who has never quite moved to the next level.  On this drive, however, he was able to move it down to the Western Kentucky 15 yard line with about 13 seconds to play, giving them 3 shots at the endzone after a spike.  On 3rd Down, Vanderbilt drew a pass interference call in the endzone with 3 seconds left in the game.  From the 2 yard line, they handed the ball off to Ralph Webb, the best player you have never heard of in college football (coming into the week, he, not Leonard Fournette or Nick Chubb, was leading the SEC in rushing), who literally leaped over the line and into the endzone for the tying score.  Vandy then won the game 31-30 in overtime after they scored on their opening possession, and Western Kentucky followed with scoring.  But, the Hilltoppers decided to go for two and the win, which Vandy was able to tip and intercept, sealing the improbable upset win.

[Dereich]

This year seems potentially crazy enough that I think there is a reasonable chance that a two-loss team can get into the CFP.  I would not have fired Les Miles at this point if I were Joe Alleva and LSU.  If you brought him back at the end of last year, I would at least give him the year.  He was literally fired because of a tenth of a second!!

They didn't want to keep him last year and he wasn't fired because of this game. If you'll recall, they tried to fire him last year, but an outpouring of fan support, his ridiculous buyout, and divided booster opinions convinced them to give him one more year which was supposed to be better since LSU retained everyone. LSU came out this season looking like it had solved literally none of its problems and seeming to all the world like Les had changed nothing. By firing him now they show potential coaching candidates that they are serious about a change this time and get a leg up on several other high paying schools who will probably fire their coaches in the candidate search.

Over/under on Orgeron straightening out LSU, beating Bama, and still not getting hired for the HC job?

Lol! I'll never forget how despicable USC was for not retaining him, and I hope they continue paying the price for it. The difference here is that he is the hometown kid this time around, so I really hope the attachment takes hold. He's more than earned it over his career.

Extremely sad to see Les go though. Should've taken the Michigan job when he had the chance. I definitely prefer him to Harbaugh.

I just found out that one of LSU's football news sites found out that LSU's AD reached out to Art Briles.

Dear God why. Why would anyone want that man near a college football program again.

Art Briles makes perfect sense! He'd be cheap (important since LSU is still going to be giving boatloads of money to Miles for years to come), he's available (no need to compete with Clemson, FSU, or Houston in a bidding war), and he's an offensive mind who could probably beat Bama. There's no room for weighty moral considerations in the cutthroat SEC West.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I can't recall a time when there was so much of a talent disparity within G5 conferences. It's rather brutal. By number of teams ranked in the Massey top 128:

MAC: 7 out of 12
Mountain West: 7 out of 12 (with San Jose State in danger of falling out)
Sun Belt: 6 out of 12 (with 3 pretty close!)
Conference-USA: 5 out of 13 (with no one else remotely close and four ranked below 200 -- for clarity, 16 D2 schools are top 200 in addition to Mount Union, and that can be tough to measure)

As I stated in IRC, I am absolutely rooting for Air Force, Toledo and Western Michigan this week who all play their toughest remaining game until the final week -- we could legitimately see a bunch of 11-0 teams who play nobody because the talent disparity within their conferences is just that egregious. Final week would set up for Toledo vs. Western Michigan and Air Force vs. Boise State, winner gets San Diego State. Sounds like a dream!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think there will be real chaos for the selection committee this year, as I don't think there will be 4 undefeated or one-loss teams from P5 conferences, let alone that won conference championships.  Something controversial will happen- possibly two teams from one conference or a close call with a mid-major.  It probably leads to an expansion to eight teams in a couple years.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'll try to chime in the discussion here as well.  If there is one thing I follow more closely than politics, it's college football! (I'm a total SEC homer)

Rooting for a conference is disgusting.

[Dereich]

I think there will be real chaos for the selection committee this year, as I don't think there will be 4 undefeated or one-loss teams from P5 conferences, let alone that won conference championships.  Somethingsg controversial will happen- possibly two teams from one conference or a close call with a mid-major.  It probably leads to an expansion to eight teams in a couple years.

Probably not in the near term. The current TV contract makes changing anything before 2026 virtually impossible.

And yes, rooting for a conference is disgusting.

[Green Line]

Rooting for the SEC is disgusting.  Rooting for a classy conference is OK.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A caller on the Finebaum Show presented an interesting scenario this afternoon- Alabama and Tennessee playing three times this season.  If they are both 12-1 after splitting their two meetings (regular season and SEC Championship), the Committee would at least give a good look at putting both in.  It's been my dream since the CFP started to get multiple SEC teams into the playoff.

My SEC Power Rankings through 4 weeks:

1. Alabama (4-0)
2. Texas A&M (4-0)
3. Tennessee (4-0)
4. Ole Miss (2-2)
5. Arkansas (3-1)
6. Georgia (3-1)
7. LSU (2-2)
8. Florida (3-1)
9. Auburn (2-2)
10. Missouri (2-2)
11. Mississippi St. (2-2)
12. Vanderbilt (2-2)
13. South Carolina (2-2)
14. Kentucky (2-2)

[7,052,770]

I think there will be real chaos for the selection committee this year, as I don't think there will be 4 undefeated or one-loss teams from P5 conferences, let alone that won conference championships.  Something controversial will happen- possibly two teams from one conference or a close call with a mid-major.  It probably leads to an expansion to eight teams in a couple years.

Eight would be the ideal number. One autobid to each conference champion (and we can get rid of conference championship games if people are too concerned about the extra game), and 1 bid reserved for a non-P5 team. The last two would be at larges, preferably chosen and seeded by an objective, predetermined formulas, rather than a committee.

Interesting to me is how SEC fanbases all believe there is a strong anti-SEC bias in the selection committee and in media coverage in general, while fans of all other conferences believe there is a strong pro-SEC bias.

[Santander]

I believe that 6 teams is the ideal number for the playoff, with first round byes for the top 2 teams. The purpose of the playoff is to determine the best team, and by the end of the season, there are never 8 teams who could legitimately claim that they are the best. However, we do sometimes have years where 5-6 teams could reasonably make such a claim. If a non-power conference team can build a compelling resume over the course of a season, let them play in the playoff, but I don't think any conference champion ought to be guaranteed a place in the playoff.

[Хahar 🤔]

A caller on the Finebaum Show presented an interesting scenario this afternoon- Alabama and Tennessee playing three times this season.  If they are both 12-1 after splitting their two meetings (regular season and SEC Championship), the Committee would at least give a good look at putting both in.  It's been my dream since the CFP started to get multiple SEC teams into the playoff.

lol this is not happening, Alabama is the best team in the country and Tennessee is trash, gtfo with that

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A caller on the Finebaum Show presented an interesting scenario this afternoon- Alabama and Tennessee playing three times this season.  If they are both 12-1 after splitting their two meetings (regular season and SEC Championship), the Committee would at least give a good look at putting both in.  It's been my dream since the CFP started to get multiple SEC teams into the playoff.

lol this is not happening, Alabama is the best team in the country and Tennessee is trash, gtfo with that

I'm not a UT fan apart from rooting for them when they're playing a non-SEC opponent.  I would actually root for Alabama in that hypothetical game.

[Хahar 🤔]

A caller on the Finebaum Show presented an interesting scenario this afternoon- Alabama and Tennessee playing three times this season.  If they are both 12-1 after splitting their two meetings (regular season and SEC Championship), the Committee would at least give a good look at putting both in.  It's been my dream since the CFP started to get multiple SEC teams into the playoff.

lol this is not happening, Alabama is the best team in the country and Tennessee is trash, gtfo with that

I'm not a UT fan apart from rooting for them when they're playing a non-SEC opponent.  I would actually root for Alabama in that hypothetical game.

I'm glad that that doesn't stop you from propagating ludicrous theories that you heard from Finebaum callers (lol). I'm sure Phyllis from Mulga really believes in the Vols!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Incredible to see Western Michigan's monumental blowout win shoot them up the computer rankings (Massey 22/Sagarin 24)! Coupled with San Diego State's loss, this team could become this season's G5 darling (Houston already has a larger than life feel) - They'll need big wins to ascend further though. Let's hope Fleck makes his team prove it with utter dominance of the lower rungs of the MAC. The AP needs to start respecting both WMU and NDSU. The former should make an appearance next week, but I want more than just 'an appearance'

As for Wyoming (up to 107/106), great to see them get the huge win in the rivalry game last week just as the season appeared to be over. There is a tiny path towards 6-6 open involving three winnable road games (New Mexico, UNLV and UNR iirc). The loss to Eastern Michigan will sting even more if they fail in just one...Craig Bohl finally has a QB and a better than average kicker, but road games will be tough no matter who you are, even with the bottoming out MW. We just need to get the bowl invite to see that progress continue.

OTOH, Villanova continues to shock me, and I do not know how this offense has become this organized with the loss of so many key receivers in an already dismal year. The story is really coming together for Andy Talley to go out on top, and the huge win brings them up to 112/110 (effectively 15th in FCS and virtually tied with James Madison as CAA frontrunners. Albany, Richmond and JMU games will determine if this season is a mere playoff birth or a real championship (not to take Maine/Delaware for granted as they have talent, but the level at which we are performing is substantially greater at the moment). I'm starting to really believe this team can play itself into the 70-80 range which would place us in the montage of 5-7 teams with legitimate hope of displacing NDSU (#31/48). The season is already a roaring success. Homecoming will be electric. Quite a shame that A&M/Alabama is that week because otherwise this would be 1 of 2 contenders for GameDay (Stanford hosts Colorado).

Regarding my Saban fandom, I've lost quite a bit of belief that he has the best team in the nation after last night. This scares me all the more because of who the playoff teams other than Bama might be.

[RINO Tom]

Very special moment before the Illini/UNL game this past Saturday ... helps you remember it's just a game:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/illinois-honors-sam-foltz-with-special-jersey-before-game-at-nebraska-video-190335892.html