Is Trump done or can he still recover in time to win?

[Lincoln Republican]

If he can still recover, then what does he have to do or what needs to happen?

[Free Bird]

It certainly doesn't look good, but I won't outright pronounce him dead until after the debates.

[Lyin' Steve]

I mean last week we had a bunch of polls with Clinton +10-ish and just today we got +3, +4, +5.  At this rate Trump will be up by 60 come election day.

[Redban]

In a typical election, a candidate in his position would be done; but this election isn't typical.

First, he needs to unify the party. Recent polls, especially the ones in red states (eg Georgia, Arizona, and Utah), suggests that millions who voted for Romney and McCain are not supporting Trump right now. To achieve this purpose, he may need to campaign with some establishment names and use his running mate more aggressively. He won't get all of the Romney and McCain voters, as neither Romney nor McCain is supporting him, but he needs at least 90%.

Secondly, once he gets the Romney and McCain voters, the race should tighten. Thereafter, he has to run a professional campaign to get independents and crossover Democrats. No more gaffes, and more emphasis on his moderate or left wing positions (ie trade).

[ag]

Too early. Unfortunately, he still has some time.

[Yank2133]

If he can still recover, then what does he have to do or what needs to happen?

Not be Donald Trump.

[Ronnie]

Doesn't he need college-educated white women to swing 30-40 points in his direction to even have a shot at winning?  Considering he has put absolutely nothing into outreach efforts, I think his goose is cooked.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

In a typical election, a candidate in his position would be done; but this election isn't typical.

First, he needs to unify the party. Recent polls, especially the ones in red states (eg Georgia, Arizona, and Utah), suggests that millions who voted for Romney and McCain are not supporting Trump right now. To achieve this purpose, he may need to campaign with some establishment names and use his running mate more aggressively. He won't get all of the Romney and McCain voters, as neither Romney nor McCain is supporting him, but he needs at least 90%.

Secondly, once he gets the Romney and McCain voters, the race should tighten. Thereafter, he has to run a professional campaign to get independents and crossover Democrats. No more gaffes, and more emphasis on his moderate or left wing positions (ie trade).

If Trump were capable of running a professional, gaffe-free, reasonable campaign, he wouldn't be in the position he is in.

I think Trump can maybe still win, but he needs Hillary to screw up badly or for outside events to change the race. Absent those circumstances, I don't know how he has a path.

[DINGO Joe]

If Trump were to get a lobotomy and just drool for the rest of the campaign his numbers  might improve, but beyond  that, he'll keep being Trump.

[Fuzzy Bear]

For Trump to win, he will have to demonstrate that Hillary Clinton engaged in unethical behavior in regard to her behavior as Secretary of State involving the Clinton Global Initiative.  Trump has alleged conflicts of interest; he has stated that she used the Clinton Global Initiative as her private hedge fund.  What if he can make enough of this stick?  What if he can show "pay to play" behavior?

If Hillary didn't have the e-mail thing and the Bill Clinton stuff, this would be tough.  People, however, are willing and able to believe that Hillary peddled influence and access.  Such a development would cause folks to take a second look at the e-mail server issue and conclude that there was a calculated bad motive from jump street on that issue.  

[Seriously?]

It's August. We'd be saying hello to President Dukakis and Dewey and Carter would have beaten Reagan, if the election were held in August.  Of course, Trump -- or any major Presidential candidate -- could overcome a deficit in August.

[Hammy]

It's August. We'd be saying hello to President Dukakis and Dewey and Carter would have beaten Reagan, if the election were held in August.  Of course, Trump or any major Presidential candidate could overcome a deficit in August.

I won't touch 1948 because I have no idea how accurate polling was overall. However, Carter was not polling over 45% at any point post-convention, nor was Reagan ever behind by 10-15 points (in fact Clinton leads where Carter was at that point by 10-15.)

As far as 1988, Clinton's scenario is actually closer to Bush's than Trump's, as far as good approval ratings for the incumbent party.

I'm having an increasingly difficult time seeing Trump recover from where he's at, but if he does and ends up winning, 2000 would be the closest comparison polling-wise.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Actually, Reagan was well ahead by August.

[Seriously?]

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Actually, Reagan was well ahead by August.

It depends on the Gallup poll. He was ahead in early August, but Carter retook the lead. Carter then lead through mid-October.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Too early. Unfortunately, he still has some time.

Agree, but fortunately, he is Donald TrumpJohn Miller. So the odds of his ceasing to present himself as a slavering monster chewing on his own knees are quite low.

[Bojack Horseman]

Theoretically he could, but will he? Most likely not.

To use an analogy, Donald Trump and frankly the entire Republican Party's campaign isn't just a sinking ship, it's the Titanic. It's a sinking ship with only enough lifeboats for half the passengers.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Sure he can. There is plenty of time left.

[The Advocate]

He's dead, Jim.

Trump couldn't raise himself to victory at this point; Hillary would have to self-destruct even worse than Trump.

[Hermit For Peace]

He's old, set in his ways, and he's not going to change. He already said as much. He's going to keep doing what he's been doing. And where is that getting him?

He is done.

He's a dangerous mentally unbalanced man, and the longer he stays in the race the more damage he does. He appeals to crazies with guns. That's scary.

He needs to be taken out of the race by his party, the sooner the better. But they won't because they are gutless.

[Hammy]

He's old, set in his ways, and he's not going to change. He already said as much. He's going to keep doing what he's been doing. And where is that getting him?

He is done.

He's a dangerous mentally unbalanced man, and the longer he stays in the race the more damage he does. He appeals to crazies with guns. That's scary.

He needs to be taken out of the race by his party, the sooner the better. But they won't because they are gutless.

Unfortunately, as far as I know they couldn't even if they want to because procedural rules don't allow for removal of the nominee by the party--he'd have to withdraw of his own will, and we know that's not going to happen. So barring some change in formal rules (highly unlikely with so many actual Trump supporters in the party) he's here to stay until the election.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'll still give him until the debates. But every day he makes a stupid statement, peoples impression and vote solidifies. Every day that he stabs himself, it adds another 10 feet to Hillary's firewall. It's almost reaching the point where the first debate won't even matter.

I'll give him 5 more days where one statement he made ate up most of the days headlines. Not counting the 2 this week.

[President Johnson]

Very very difficult with this high unfavorables. His biggest problem is the road to 270 electoral victories. Florida and Pennsylvania are absolute must-wins for him. Hillary on the contrary has several more ways to reach a majority in the electoral college. Unless Hillary implodes for what reason ever I see him losing by at least the 2012 margin.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It's August. We'd be saying hello to President Dukakis and Dewey and Carter would have beaten Reagan, if the election were held in August.  Of course, Trump or any major Presidential candidate could overcome a deficit in August.

I won't touch 1948 because I have no idea how accurate polling was overall. However, Carter was not polling over 45% at any point post-convention, nor was Reagan ever behind by 10-15 points (in fact Clinton leads where Carter was at that point by 10-15.)

As far as 1988, Clinton's scenario is actually closer to Bush's than Trump's, as far as good approval ratings for the incumbent party.

I'm having an increasingly difficult time seeing Trump recover from where he's at, but if he does and ends up winning, 2000 would be the closest comparison polling-wise.

There are a number of parallels between 2016 and 1948.  

One of the biggest parallels is the disconnect between the GOP Presidential nominee and the GOP Congress (which had a majority at that time).  Dewey was a moderate Republican who ran on a "me-too" GOP platform that reflected a combination of conservative and liberal positions, but the Congressional party was dominated by conservatives who did not like Dewey or his platform.  Truman, seizing on this, used his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention to challenge the Republican Congress to enact their platform into law within 100 days.  He did this knowing that they wouldn't, because the Congressional GOP wasn't in line with the Dewey platform.  They went along with Dewey because he was popular not just as Governor of New York, but as a crime-busting prosecutor who had been mentioned as a successor to J. Edgar Hoover (who still had a stellar reputation) as FBI Director.  And Truman was right; the GOP argued about their own platform and passed nothing.  Truman's labeling of the 80th Congress as the "Do Nothing Congress" had special meaning here, especially in an age where Congress was expected to affirmatively take action.

The difference is that in 1948, even conservative Republicans were OK with their "front man", Dewey.  They were hungry for a victory at the Presidential level, and it had been a long time since that had happened.  That's not the case for today's GOP, which has controlled the House for all but 4 years since 1995, and the Senate for 13 of the last 22 years, and dominates Governorships and state legislatures.  They're more of the "Establishment" than the 1948 GOP, yet they've experienced a hostile takeover of their Presidential nominating apparatus by a candidate who is opposed to the sort of trade and immigration policies that are the bread and butter of their well-heeled corporate contributors.  I submit that THIS, and not Trump's temperament, comments, or Donald being Donald is the issue here.  Trump's made it easy for these folks to balk, but they were going to balk anyway.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Barring a major game-changing event, I don't think he can recover.  This would be something like a severe Clinton health crisis or major new scandal.  The emails are pretty well baked in, and even new revelations from them probably won't hurt her very much.

Whatever you think about Trump as a person, he's certainly running the worst campaign in decades.  (I used to think I'd never see a worse candidate than Dukakis, but have been proven wrong.)  He has no ground organization, no coherent strategy, and no understanding of general election politics.  In contrast, Clinton -- whatever you think about her as a person -- is a smart politician with a very capable and professional organization.  Against a good opponent, this would probably be worth a point or two of PV for her.  The advantage will be even greater against Trump's non-organization.

Even if Trump suddenly woke up, hired some sharp professionals, and started acting like a mature, sensible candidate, he couldn't make up the ground he's lost.  Too much damage has been done.  If this did happen (which is highly unlikely given his performance to date), I think the best he could do would be the Romney states + IA, OH, and NV.  Not nearly enough to win.

More realistically, if Trump just starts watching his words and the race does tighten a bit, then I think Clinton wins the Obama 2012 states plus NC.  If Trump continues saying stupid things on a regular basis, throw in GA, AZ, and NE-02.  If he completely implodes (a realistic possibility), then Clinton probably also takes MO, SC, IN, UT, and maybe even more.

[Orser67]

I think he can, but I certainly don't think he will. So far he seems to be a terrible general election candidate, and it's hard to see that changing in the next 90 days. It also seems impossible for him to make up the advantage Clinton will have in advertising and the ground game. Even if he does somehow fix those disadvantages, he'll have a tough time getting to 270; it's hard to see Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, or Oregon voting for him. It also seems that presidential elections rarely change dramatically after the conventions.