Is Trump done or can he still recover in time to win?
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  Is Trump done or can he still recover in time to win?
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Author Topic: Is Trump done or can he still recover in time to win?  (Read 1871 times)
Virginiá
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« Reply #25 on: August 13, 2016, 11:12:57 AM »

I won't touch 1948 because I have no idea how accurate polling was overall. However, Carter was not polling over 45% at any point post-convention, nor was Reagan ever behind by 10-15 points (in fact Clinton leads where Carter was at that point by 10-15.)

As I understand it, Gallup stopped polling week(s) before the election and missed subsequent changes. Though, this doesn't touch on any potential issues with their methodology.

I think he can, but I certainly don't think he will. So far he seems to be a terrible general election candidate, and it's hard to see that changing in the next 90 days. It also seems impossible for him to make up the advantage Clinton will have in advertising and the ground game. Even if he does somehow fix those disadvantages, he'll have a tough time getting to 270; it's hard to see Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, or Oregon voting for him. It also seems that presidential elections rarely change dramatically after the conventions.

Agreed. Trump has given no one any reason to believe he'll turn it all around at this point. Ideally, he should have run a tight ship post-convention, when the reality is Trump's campaign is currently at one of the lowest points (if not thee lowest) that they have been in the entire election cycle, all due to unforced errors from Trump and his big mouth. So can he technically bounce back? Sure. Is it likely? Not at all.

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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #26 on: August 13, 2016, 01:19:46 PM »

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Why do you think I chose not to get onboard the "Trumptanic?"
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #27 on: August 13, 2016, 01:22:21 PM »

His only chance now is to score a slam-dunk against Hillary in the debates; and if his past performance against a bunch of clowns where he was the biggest clown is any indication, he won't do any better against a veteran debater like Hillary.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #28 on: August 13, 2016, 01:29:17 PM »

I wouldn't stick a fork into his campaign just yet, but if he keeps up with the un-presidential behaviour (which he probably will), it's game over for him.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: August 13, 2016, 01:29:43 PM »

He might win, of course, but he is de facto done.
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Hermit For Peace
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« Reply #30 on: August 13, 2016, 01:41:18 PM »


He's old, set in his ways, and he's not going to change. He already said as much. He's going to keep doing what he's been doing. And where is that getting him?

He is done.

He's a dangerous mentally unbalanced man, and the longer he stays in the race the more damage he does. He appeals to crazies with guns. That's scary.

He needs to be taken out of the race by his party, the sooner the better. But they won't because they are gutless.

Unfortunately, as far as I know they couldn't even if they want to because procedural rules don't allow for removal of the nominee by the party--he'd have to withdraw of his own will, and we know that's not going to happen. So barring some change in formal rules (highly unlikely with so many actual Trump supporters in the party) he's here to stay until the election.

I only said they should take him down because there has been so much talk about it in the news. I don't know procedural rules, so if the GOP is stuck with Trump then so be it.

I still consider him dangerous...the things he says, the violence he appears to incite, the total disregard for the humanity of others, the daily and weekly stupidity he shows, his lack of political knowledge, his one-pointed obsessive focus on himself.....he's a menace to society.

Maybe people in here don't know human nature very well, but when you have reached 70, chances are high high high that you are not going to change, especially when you tell people you aren't going to change like, Trump has said.

Trump is well done for sure. Good riddance.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #31 on: August 13, 2016, 06:55:23 PM »

The Clinton campaign is taking the same cautious, nothing left to chance approach that JBE did in Louisiana. Vitter was pretty much done for before they ran the prostitutes ad. Basically the name of the game is to keep pumping bullets into your opponent to be absolutely sure he's not going to get back up.
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Taco Truck 🚚
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« Reply #32 on: August 13, 2016, 07:52:54 PM »

Basically the name of the game is to keep pumping bullets into your opponent to be absolutely sure he's not going to get back up.

Or more accurately just step back and quietly munch on a sandwich while your opponent saws his own gonads off with a rusty hacksaw.
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Rand
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« Reply #33 on: August 14, 2016, 04:49:39 PM »

The Clinton campaign is taking the same cautious, nothing left to chance approach that JBE did in Louisiana. Vitter was pretty much done for before they ran the prostitutes ad. Basically the name of the game is to keep pumping bullets into your opponent to be absolutely sure he's not going to get back up.

From a military point of view, Donald Trump is a horrible commander with zero strategy--or at least surrounds himself with clueless sycophants.  Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has a smart political operation that displays tactical brilliance in its offense and counterattack of Trump.  His campaign just doesn't operate on her level.  Every time he makes an offensive move, Clinton effectively strikes back, and this will continue because as she said herself, "there is a lot to hit him on."  Her convention was superior, he campaign ads will be increasingly devastating while Trump's will probably remain non-existent, her ground game will get more fervent, she will best him in the debates, and more prominent Republicans will continue to condemn him slowly and methodically to continuously undermine his campaign.  Like Obama, Hillary has a winning strategy and a winning team.  Trump has his fingers crossed, but that doesn't win elections.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #34 on: August 15, 2016, 10:32:20 PM »

The Clinton campaign is taking the same cautious, nothing left to chance approach that JBE did in Louisiana. Vitter was pretty much done for before they ran the prostitutes ad. Basically the name of the game is to keep pumping bullets into your opponent to be absolutely sure he's not going to get back up.

From a military point of view, Donald Trump is a horrible commander with zero strategy--or at least surrounds himself with clueless sycophants.  Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has a smart political operation that displays tactical brilliance in its offense and counterattack of Trump.  His campaign just doesn't operate on her level.  Every time he makes an offensive move, Clinton effectively strikes back, and this will continue because as she said herself, "there is a lot to hit him on."  Her convention was superior, he campaign ads will be increasingly devastating while Trump's will probably remain non-existent, her ground game will get more fervent, she will best him in the debates, and more prominent Republicans will continue to condemn him slowly and methodically to continuously undermine his campaign.  Like Obama, Hillary has a winning strategy and a winning team.  Trump has his fingers crossed, but that doesn't win elections.

Good.

Hopefully the Republican war chest will be spent on down ballot races, not on the rapidly imploding Trump campaign.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #35 on: August 15, 2016, 11:14:11 PM »

Trump is clearly the underdog here, but he's not out yet. Besides all the plausible ways people have already mentioned in this thread for him to narrow the race, I think the unusually high third party numbers could be a factor too. So far, Johnson hasn't begun to collapse, which is surprising. If something blows open with Hillary that drives more Democrats and independents to Johnson/Stein, it could tip the balance, even if they don't go to Trump.
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