FL-Sen: Will Rubio be re-elected?

[Talleyrand]

Yes, he'll win by around 5 points when it's all said and done, heavily outperforming Trump. He will then become a top contender for the 2020 Republican contest.

[JerryArkansas]

50-50

[Xing]

Too soon to tell. Not that long ago, people thought it laughable that McGinty could beat Toomey, and we saw how quickly things changed. We'll know more after the primary.

[Kevin]

As of today I'd say yes but given the polling out of PA things can quickly change.

[RogueBeaver]

As of today I'd say yes but given the polling out of PA things can quickly change.

[windjammer]

Too soon to tell. Not that long ago, people thought it laughable that McGinty could beat Toomey, and we saw how quickly things changed. We'll know more after the primary.

[Vosem]

Heavily inclined to say "yes, and overperforming Trump so massively will go a long way towards his rehabilitation in GOP circles", but it's too early to judge Murphy before the primary's even happened.

[ElectionsGuy]

Today I would say yes. But it matters what the race is like in October. Unlike in Pennsylvania, Rubio isn't being dragged down too much by huge polling leads by Clinton, and he seems to consistently outperform Trump by at least 5 (in margin).

[Vega]

Not after Grayson gets his hands on him and gives him a good beating.

[UWS]

Yes! Thanks to his charisma, to his ability to appeal Hispanic voters, to his foreign policy experience and to his debating skills, he will win re-election.

[Suburbia]

50-50. If he wins reelection, Florida Democrats may look absolutely foolish. Foolish.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Heavily inclined to say "yes, and overperforming Trump so massively will go a long way towards his rehabilitation in GOP circles", but it's too early to judge Murphy before the primary's even happened.

[President Johnson]

Unfortunately yes. 51-47%.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Leaning no but I think he might be the (or maybe one of 2) GOP Senate candidate(s) that goes against the national tide and wins their competitive Senate race. I expect all but at most two of the competitive Senate races to break to the Dems.

FTR my gut feeling right now is that Dems win in Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada, with Republicans winning in Arizona (It seems like McCain will win his primary which I expect will lead to a low single digit win for him in November though I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Ward upsets in the primary) and Ohio, though, in the case of the latter, I also have a feeling that there's a good chance that, while Portman will have consistent leads in the polls in the final stretch of the campaign, Strickland rides the national tide and wins by less than 2% with a plurality on election night, in a major surprise to election observers.

I think the Dems will lose NC and pickup AZ (even though Ward will get destroyed in the primary) and at this point I don't think Strickland will win (3-6 point loss, I think), but other than that I agree with the caveat that things could easily change later in the cycle.

I suspect Rubio narrowly loses, but also wouldn't be surprised if he hangs on by the skin of his teeth.

[Figueira]

Not that long ago, people thought it laughable that McGinty could beat Toomey

That was because most people on Atlas had a grudge against McGinty which is ironically similar to the Democratic establishment's grudge against Sestak.

But I actually think Murphy will eke out a narrow victory. I know that's a bold prediction, though.

[windjammer]

Leaning no but I think he might be the (or maybe one of 2) GOP Senate candidate(s) that goes against the national tide and wins their competitive Senate race. I expect all but at most two of the competitive Senate races to break to the Dems.

FTR my gut feeling right now is that Dems win in Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada, with Republicans winning in Arizona (It seems like McCain will win his primary which I expect will lead to a low single digit win for him in November though I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Ward upsets in the primary) and Ohio, though, in the case of the latter, I also have a feeling that there's a good chance that, while Portman will have consistent leads in the polls in the final stretch of the campaign, Strickland rides the national tide and wins by less than 2% with a plurality on election night, in a major surprise to election observers.

I think the Dems will lose NC and pickup AZ (even though Ward will get destroyed in the primary) and at this point I don't think Strickland will win (3-6 point loss, I think), but other than that I agree with the caveat that things could easily change later in the cycle.

I suspect Rubio narrowly loses, but also wouldn't be surprised if he hangs on by the skin of his teeth.

I'm curious, why are you optimistic regarding AZ and pessimistic regarding NC?

[Kevin]

Leaning no but I think he might be the (or maybe one of 2) GOP Senate candidate(s) that goes against the national tide and wins their competitive Senate race. I expect all but at most two of the competitive Senate races to break to the Dems.

FTR my gut feeling right now is that Dems win in Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada, with Republicans winning in Arizona (It seems like McCain will win his primary which I expect will lead to a low single digit win for him in November though I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Ward upsets in the primary) and Ohio, though, in the case of the latter, I also have a feeling that there's a good chance that, while Portman will have consistent leads in the polls in the final stretch of the campaign, Strickland rides the national tide and wins by less than 2% with a plurality on election night, in a major surprise to election observers.

I think the Dems will lose NC and pickup AZ (even though Ward will get destroyed in the primary) and at this point I don't think Strickland will win (3-6 point loss, I think), but other than that I agree with the caveat that things could easily change later in the cycle.

I suspect Rubio narrowly loses, but also wouldn't be surprised if he hangs on by the skin of his teeth.

I'm curious, why are you optimistic regarding AZ and pessimistic regarding NC?

IMO judging by today he wins comfortably. If Rubio loses then the GOP prob has already lost IN, NH, OH PA, NC, AZ, and maybe MO at that point in addition to IL and WI which are forgone conclusions as of now.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I think it mostly comes down to his support among the Cuban establishment, particularly in and near Miami. He won Miami-Dade County in 2010 and won it big in the GOP primary this year despite losing the state. If he can do well there, he will win. If the county votes straight tickets, Trump drags him down, and he's toast. I think it's unclear, at this point, which scenario will unfold.

[ElectionsGuy]

Don't know. As of now, I'll say yes. He's outperforming Trump by enough to win even if Clinton wins the state by 5 or 6.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I hope not. There is a lot of dissatisfaction with him on the ground among Republicans and a large number of Trump backers despise him. Murphy should be more anti-Rubio and less anti-Trump, because he already is palatable enough for most conservatives as far as Democrats go. He didn't get 60% in a Republican district for playing with his hands.

[Vega]

Probably not.

[Present]

I think he will. He's pretty well-suited for Florida as a Republican, but the only thing that can stop him is Trump. As long as Trump gets pretty close to Clinton in Florida, straight ticket voting shouldn't hurt Rubio that harshly.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm envisioning a hairline loss.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I am going to predict a narrow loss by 1-2 points, however this race could go either way at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He will lose like Toomey, Young & Ayotte will. Cause Trump will pull him down.