Will ex-Dem working class white backlash voters return to Dems if Trump loses?

[uti2]

If their whole reason for joining the Republicans was due to fury towards political correctness/culture wars heading into post-9/11 w. Bush '04 and accelerating under Obama, by having the anti-trump Rs reject their anti-pc candidate and considering the implications of that including Hillary's SCOTUS appointments, what reason do they have to remain converted Republicans? Wouldn't they return to voting on economic issues with the Democrats?

[Devils30]

Nah, many of them are Appalachian and furious at Obama for the "war on coal." Their GOP numbers will level out and maybe decline slightly if Clinton is popular but they won't return to the Democratic fold again.

[uti2]

Nah, many of them are Appalachian and furious at Obama for the "war on coal." Their GOP numbers will level out and maybe decline slightly if Clinton is popular but they won't return to the Democratic fold again.

I'm not talking about WV and those guys who already went for Bush in 2000, despite Gore winning the PV. I'm saying in other parts of the country where Gore did better and this new trend started to accelerate under Bush 04 and the Obama years, as they cease to have a reason to stay with the Rs.

[Virginiá]

Nah, many of them are Appalachian and furious at Obama for the "war on coal." Their GOP numbers will level out and maybe decline slightly if Clinton is popular but they won't return to the Democratic fold again.

I'm not talking about WV and those guys who already went for Bush in 2000, despite Gore winning the PV. I'm saying in other parts of the country where Gore did better and this new trend started to accelerate under Bush 04 and the Obama years, as they cease to have a reason to stay with the Rs.

I suppose it's possible for some previously-Democratic white working class voters in some rust belt states to stay with Republicans. However, I would not expect this to be a big deal for Democrats as Republicans are bleeding college educated whites at the same time. This may actually end up being a net benefit up and downballot for Democrats long-term.

We won't know for sure until after 2018 and 2020, though. We need to confirm changes in voting patterns, and we need more post-Trump elections for that.

[uti2]

Nah, many of them are Appalachian and furious at Obama for the "war on coal." Their GOP numbers will level out and maybe decline slightly if Clinton is popular but they won't return to the Democratic fold again.

I'm not talking about WV and those guys who already went for Bush in 2000, despite Gore winning the PV. I'm saying in other parts of the country where Gore did better and this new trend started to accelerate under Bush 04 and the Obama years, as they cease to have a reason to stay with the Rs.

I suppose it's possible for some previously-Democratic white working class voters in some rust belt states to stay with Republicans. However, I would not expect this to be a big deal for Democrats as Republicans are bleeding college educated whites at the same time. This may actually end up being a net benefit up and downballot for Democrats long-term.

We won't know for sure until after 2018 and 2020, though. We need to confirm changes in voting patterns, and we need more post-Trump elections for that.

No, I'm saying the opposite, that those previously white working class voters who switched over to republicans starting in 04 and went for romney, etc. up until now, would return to the Democrats, due to not having an incentive to stay with the Republicans after this year if their culture warrior/anti-pc candidate is defeated by anti-trump people, since that was their only reason for joining the Republicans in the first place.

[uti2]

Nah, many of them are Appalachian and furious at Obama for the "war on coal." Their GOP numbers will level out and maybe decline slightly if Clinton is popular but they won't return to the Democratic fold again.

I'm not talking about WV and those guys who already went for Bush in 2000, despite Gore winning the PV. I'm saying in other parts of the country where Gore did better and this new trend started to accelerate under Bush 04 and the Obama years, as they cease to have a reason to stay with the Rs.

I suppose it's possible for some previously-Democratic white working class voters in some rust belt states to stay with Republicans. However, I would not expect this to be a big deal for Democrats as Republicans are bleeding college educated whites at the same time. This may actually end up being a net benefit up and downballot for Democrats long-term.

We won't know for sure until after 2018 and 2020, though. We need to confirm changes in voting patterns, and we need more post-Trump elections for that.

I.E, what reason would these working class guys have to vote for a generic R, if it turns out generic Rs were quite fine with having Hillary being elected in the first place? So no more dog whistling, and social issues become irrelevant due to SCOTUS picks from anti-Trump people allowing Hillary to be elected and it's just hard-right econ policies that none of them personally agree with, so why would those voters support those hard-right policies for no reason? Could Dems return closer to Gore-level margins for white working class voters for that reason?

[Virginiá]

I.E, what reason would these working class guys have to vote for a generic R, if it turns out generic Rs were quite fine with having Hillary being elected in the first place? So no more dog whistling, and social issues become irrelevant due to SCOTUS picks from anti-Trump people allowing Hillary to be elected and it's just hard-right econ policies that none of them personally agree with, so why would those voters support those hard-right policies for no reason? Could Dems return closer to Gore-level margins for white working class voters for that reason?

Well first, partisan loyalties tend to stick early on and once you reach the point where they break, the voter will probably have enough grievances with your party that they aren't coming back easily.

That being said, if these voters feel like Democrats have failed them for years and have strayed from issues they care about, then I don't understand why they would feel the need to come back. If Trump succeeds in tar and feathering Hillary enough in these peoples  minds, then her as president is not going to help bring them back, especially when Trump seems dead-set on convincing his supporters Democrats are cheating. Finally, lots of voters disagree with their party on some issues but stick with them for others, some of which may not even be based entirely on policy.

I think a good bit of the Democratic white voter problem is a generational problem as well. It's hard to go back when a lot of those people were never really Democrats to begin with. As for those that were, refer to what I stated above.

But, like I said, we need more elections before we can accurately make predictions here.

[uti2]

I.E, what reason would these working class guys have to vote for a generic R, if it turns out generic Rs were quite fine with having Hillary being elected in the first place? So no more dog whistling, and social issues become irrelevant due to SCOTUS picks from anti-Trump people allowing Hillary to be elected and it's just hard-right econ policies that none of them personally agree with, so why would those voters support those hard-right policies for no reason? Could Dems return closer to Gore-level margins for white working class voters for that reason?

Well first, partisan loyalties tend to stick early on and once you reach the point where they break, the voter will probably have enough grievances with your party that they aren't coming back easily.

That being said, if these voters feel like Democrats have failed them for years and have strayed from issues they care about, then I don't understand why they would feel the need to come back. If Trump succeeds in tar and feathering Hillary enough in these peoples  minds, then her as president is not going to help bring them back, especially when Trump seems dead-set on convincing his supporters Democrats are cheating. Finally, lots of voters disagree with their party on some issues but stick with them for others, some of which may not even be based entirely on policy.

I think a good bit of the Democratic white voter problem is a generational problem as well. It's hard to go back when a lot of those people were never really Democrats to begin with. As for those that were, refer to what I stated above.

But, like I said, we need more elections before we can accurately make predictions here.

W.R.T Trump they would also have grievances with the Republicans for failing to support him, since the whole reason they went to them was as a backlash vs. the Democrats. Hence partisan loyalties at stake here with Trump/not-Trump Republicans. E.G, many of these guys voted for Romney, and now they see Romney attacking their candidate.

Trump did not simply tar Hillary though, he also tarred the entire Republican party and is calling out both sides for the establishment (both republicans and democrats) for the supposed 'rigging'.

How do you think they feel about people like Romney whom they voted for as converts to the Republican party attacking their candidate, why should they feel anymore loyalty to the republicans?

[Devout Centrist]

No, of course not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Depending how the GOP handles the post-Drumpf reality, some of them might. I think most of those disappointed will just stop voting altogether, though. The great long-term trend of the white working class isn't toward the GOP, it's toward nonvote.

[136or142]

Most of them have been Republican for 20-32 years now.  Rather than refer to them as 'ex-Dems', it would be more accurate to refer to them as 'Republicans.'

[uti2]

No, of course not.

What incentives would they have to stick around if no one represents their interests?

Most of them have been Republican for 20-32 years now.  Rather than refer to them as 'ex-Dems', it would be more accurate to refer to them as 'Republicans.'

Many of them backed Gore in 2000 who won the PV, it wasn't until 2004 that the Republicans started to ramp up the numbers with them, even more so than they had done before.

[Devout Centrist]

No, of course not.

What incentives would they have to stick around if no one represents their interests?

Most of them have been Republican for 20-32 years now.  Rather than refer to them as 'ex-Dems', it would be more accurate to refer to them as 'Republicans.'

Many of them backed Gore in 2000 who won the PV, it wasn't until 2004 that the Republicans started to ramp up the numbers with them, even more so than they had done before.

The GOP will still pander to them in the same vein as Rick Santorum: Social Conservatism mixed with some economic populism. They're not moving to the Democrats.

[RINO Tom]

Nah, many of them are Appalachian and furious at Obama for the "war on coal." Their GOP numbers will level out and maybe decline slightly if Clinton is popular but they won't return to the Democratic fold again.

I'm not talking about WV and those guys who already went for Bush in 2000, despite Gore winning the PV. I'm saying in other parts of the country where Gore did better and this new trend started to accelerate under Bush 04 and the Obama years, as they cease to have a reason to stay with the Rs.

I suppose it's possible for some previously-Democratic white working class voters in some rust belt states to stay with Republicans. However, I would not expect this to be a big deal for Democrats as Republicans are bleeding college educated whites at the same time. This may actually end up being a net benefit up and downballot for Democrats long-term.

We won't know for sure until after 2018 and 2020, though. We need to confirm changes in voting patterns, and we need more post-Trump elections for that.

This should be the answer to every single question regarding trends until 2018 at the earliest.  Period.

[RINO Tom]

No, of course not.

What incentives would they have to stick around if no one represents their interests?

Most of them have been Republican for 20-32 years now.  Rather than refer to them as 'ex-Dems', it would be more accurate to refer to them as 'Republicans.'

Many of them backed Gore in 2000 who won the PV, it wasn't until 2004 that the Republicans started to ramp up the numbers with them, even more so than they had done before.

The GOP will still pander to them in the same vein as Rick Santorum: Social Conservatism mixed with some economic populism. They're not moving to the Democrats.

Except they won't.

[136or142]

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/04_demographics_teixeira.pdf

The Decline of the White Working Class and the Rise of a Mass Upper Middle Class
Ruy Teixeira
Visiting Fellow
Governance Studies and Metropolitan Policy Programs
The Brookings Institution
Alan Abramowitz
Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science
Emory University
Brookings Working Paper
April 2008

[uti2]

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/04_demographics_teixeira.pdf

The Decline of the White Working Class and the Rise of a Mass Upper Middle Class
Ruy Teixeira
Visiting Fellow
Governance Studies and Metropolitan Policy Programs
The Brookings Institution
Alan Abramowitz
Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science
Emory University
Brookings Working Paper
April 2008

College Education =/ Wage Differentiation:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

[IceSpear]

No.

[uti2]

No.

At the margins they can make a large difference electorally. As has been suggested above, many may simply 'not vote', having a similar effect.

[RINO Tom]

No.

You'd probably hate got the party of the people to regain the votes of those dirty undesirables, huh??

[Ogre Mage]

If we had a major economic boom under a Democratic President like we did during Bill Clinton's second term, one which lifted the wages of all income levels and not just the rich, I do think a few white working class voters would start voting Democratic again.

But I would say the large majority would not.  Let's be clear -- the break with the Democratic Party is not just about the pocketbook and the disdain of Barack Obama isn't just because they feel left behind economically.  The racism which powered the success of Trump's campaign isn't going to go away just because he loses.

President Obama and Hillary Clinton are symbolic of the demographic and social changes which have taken place in the U.S.  Many voters are deeply uncomfortable with these changes and what the Democratic Party has come to represent.  We can keep reaching out to white working class voters on economics but this is an area I have no interest in compromising on.  Maybe some of those voters will get with the times but for most I believe it will be a bridge too far.

[uti2]

If we had a major economic boom under a Democratic President like we did during Bill Clinton's second term, one which lifted the wages of all income levels and not just the rich, I do think a few white working class voters would start voting Democratic again.

But I would say the large majority would not.  Let's be clear -- the break with the Democratic Party is not just about the pocketbook and the disdain of Barack Obama isn't just because they feel left behind economically.  The racism which powered the success of Trump's campaign isn't going to go away just because he loses.

President Obama and Hillary Clinton are symbolic of the demographic and social changes which have taken place in the U.S.  Many voters are deeply uncomfortable with these changes and what the Democratic Party has come to represent.  We can keep reaching out to white working class voters on economics but this is an area I have no interest in compromising on.  Maybe some of those voters will get with the times but for most I believe it will be a bridge too far.

Because the Republicans against Trump this cycle were pushing the same 'anti-racism', demographic/social changes and promoting multiculturalism (except for cruz who tried the subtle dog-whistle approach before detonating himself with those supporters) + open borders, etc. Trump single-handedly changed the immigration discussion and on the TPP by simply entering the race, a few months before that, cruz was promoting 'non-citizen legal status' and wrote an oped with ryan backing the tpp. So again, what incentive do they have to stick with them?

[IceSpear]

No.

You'd probably hate got the party of the people to regain the votes of those dirty undesirables, huh??

Whoa! Chill out dude. I was just stating the obvious answer to the question. Are you drunk posting?

[RINO Tom]

No.

You'd probably hate got the party of the people to regain the votes of those dirty undesirables, huh??

Whoa! Chill out dude. I was just stating the obvious answer to the question. Are you drunk posting?

Just wondering if your disdain for WV extended to the other WCWs!

[IceSpear]

No.

You'd probably hate got the party of the people to regain the votes of those dirty undesirables, huh??

Whoa! Chill out dude. I was just stating the obvious answer to the question. Are you drunk posting?

Just wondering if your disdain for WV extended to the other WCWs!

Considering I am a "working class white" (and so are my parents, for that matter), I'm gonna go with a no on that one. Only on Atlas does everyone assume you hate "working class whites" if you bash racist hicks, which funnily enough implicitly assumes the two groups are equivalent.

Also, as a working class white male, I am proud to say I don't blame blacks and browns for all my problems in life. See, it's so easy!