When will Jewish voters leave the Democratic Party en masse?

[Suburbia]

With some left-leaning Democrats putting their allegiances with Palestine and other Arabian groups, in the 2016 Democratic platform, will this cause Jewish voters in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Nevada, etc, start to leave the Democratic Party and when would that exodus slowly begin?

[LLR]

Never. We will never join the xenophobic, racist party, having been victims of that stuff so many times.

[DC Al Fine]

If Jews flip it will be because their internal demographics have trended Orthodox.

[Ogre Mage]

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Never. We will never join the xenophobic, racist party, having been victims of that stuff so many times.

Jews are becoming Republican slowly.  If the GOP dropped their religious fundamentalist stance, more Jews would become Republicans, as many of the Jews I know are socially moderate to liberal, but conservative in economics.  On the other hand, Jews are represented in disproportionate numbers to their numbers in the general population in the fields of law and education, and two of the GOP's top targets are trial lawyers and teacher unions, so many Jews have their economic livelihoods at least somewhat tied up with the Democratic Party.  

I would not be surprised if Jews, as a group, become split-ticket voters; more Republican for President, but Democratic in down-ballot races.

[uti2]

Never. We will never join the xenophobic, racist party, having been victims of that stuff so many times.

Jews are becoming Republican slowly.  If the GOP dropped their religious fundamentalist stance, more Jews would become Republicans, as many of the Jews I know are socially moderate to liberal, but conservative in economics.  On the other hand, Jews are represented in disproportionate numbers to their numbers in the general population in the fields of law and education, and two of the GOP's top targets are trial lawyers and teacher unions, so many Jews have their economic livelihoods at least somewhat tied up with the Democratic Party.  

I would not be surprised if Jews, as a group, become split-ticket voters; more Republican for President, but Democratic in down-ballot races.

Jews are also some of the least religious, so are Asians.

Republicans can't drop religious fundamentalism because that's what they use for their base + for their outreach for 'hispanics', but that is exactly why jews/asians will never vote GOP. Ironically, they're in a box, because whites and even hispanics are becoming slightly less religious over time.

[politicallefty]

I don't know the exact numbers, but I do believe the vast majority of Jewish people in this country live in urban areas. I think the Democratic Party's strength among Jewish voters goes hand in hand with their general strength in urban areas. Social conservatism and populist nationalism are radioactive in urban areas and among most Jewish voters. I don't think it's too dissimilar to the Mormon repulsion to Trump's proposed Muslim ban.

Ultra-orthodox enclaves like Borough Park aside (although I'd probably bet on Hillary winning there in November), I expect Jewish voters to stand with the Democratic Party so long as the current urban/rural divide exists. That divide will almost certainly reach historic proportions this year. It would take a fundamental realignment that I cannot possibly imagine happening. If anything, the movement this year is in the opposite direction.

[Devils30]

It sure as hell won't happen this year with a white nationalist sympathizer leading the GOP ticket.

[uti2]

It sure as hell won't happen this year with a white nationalist sympathizer leading the GOP ticket.

It won't either way as long as they stick to socon policies and the religious christian agenda in general. Same goes for asians.

[Sedona]

Never. We will never join the xenophobic, racist party, having been victims of that stuff so many times.

This so much.

Also, the vast majority of Jews support a two-state solution, so I don't see how that issue will significantly hurt the Democrats with Jewish voters.

Speaking to my personal experience, being a Democrat is a culturally important part of being Jewish.  Obviously there are Jewish Republicans out there, but they are a pretty small minority.  The GOP may be attempting to win us over through blindly pro-Israel stances, but much of their anti-urban/northeast/intellectual rhetoric contains many traces of anti-semitism.  Our 'New York values' will keep us voting Democrat for years to come.

[136or142]

If Jews flip it will be because their internal demographics have trended Orthodox.

You mean Ultra Orthodox.  Orthodox Jews are mainstream religious Jews.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shut up.

[SATW]

Shut up.

I sometimes wonder if leftists on this forum know how to function in discussion properly. It is a very much real question to ask if Jewish voters are going to trend one way or another.

Jewish voters are mainly Pro-Israel, the Democratic Party (especially Bernie's wing) is starting to move away from that in certain areas of the country, this is especially concerning to East Coast Jewish communities in NY, NJ, MA, MD and FL.

Jewish voters are, generally, supportive of neoliberal economic policies (part of why many backed Hillary over Bernie). The constant attack on the 1% or any grouping of wealth in general is not something most Jews are ecstatic about.

Of course, there is a decent sized group of American Jews who like this rhetoric, due to their family's deep ties to organized labor and socialism in the early 1900's.

Jewish commitment to social equality and social justice, on balance, is one of the main factors keeping them solidly Democrat. The argument that "we were treated horribly, therefore we are obliged to fight for equality for all" still rings true to many people in the community.

HOWEVER, you have idiotic groups like Black Lives Matters, whose message many Jews want to support (see again: Jewish comm. to social justice), who have denounced Israel, support BDS and call Zionism racism. That doesn't sit well with Jewish communities or our leaders. Its stuff like this that can change the gears of how the secular to traditional Jews in this country vote.

Also, as noted by someone...Orthodox/Hasidic Jews are trending heavily R and are having more kids than secular/traditional Jews.  This could change American Jewish demographics long-term, but we'll get to this once/if it ever happens.

However, NONE of this is relevant in 2016: Trump is indeed scaring many Jewish voters. Not just the progressive Jews who were never going to vote Republican, but also the moderate-liberal, moderate and right-wing Jews as well.

Obviously, moderate-liberal and moderate Jews are likely to be socially liberal/progressive, economically centrist and somewhat hawkish on foreign policy. But, the first category is likely the main factor to drive them to vote against Trump.

right-wing Jews, like Bill Kristol/Robert Kagan types, are generally neoconservatives and do not like Trump's unpredictability on foreign policy and his disdain for free trade and they also don't trust him on Israel. Some will vote Hillary, most will either hold their nose for Trump or vote third party/write-in.

the far-right Jewish voting bloc (very small) are gung-ho for Trump due to single-issues. Could be immigration, could be taxes, could be Israel etc... (despite Trump being mediocre to horrible, by conservative standards, on all of these issues).

[SATW]

Also, some more things to think about for those curious:

- American Jews are becoming more sephardic/Mizrahi in some parts of the country, which means that there are growing communities of traditional, more right-leaning Jews.
- Intermarriage among secular Jews will effect Jewish cohesiveness in the U.S.
- Diaspora relationship w/ Israel, of course, is a big one too.

[LLR]

Excellent points (as always), Sunrise. However, one thing you neglected to mention is the growing secularism and growth of Reform Judaism, which contributes a little bit the other way.

But basically those posts are the answer to this thread.

[SATW]

Excellent points (as always), Sunrise. However, one thing you neglected to mention is the growing secularism and growth of Reform Judaism, which contributes a little bit the other way.

But basically those posts are the answer to this thread.

Thanks! And good catch on that! Reform Judaism's popularity in the Diaspora, at some point, needs to be recognized/discussed by Israel's religious leadership.

My position has always been: I'm traditional, I believe in traditional Jewish, halachic values, but we - as a people, a religion, a nation - need to start having real discussions on religious theology so we can stay united.

Reform and Orthodox Judaism battle, constantly, on a large set of issues (and I tilt heavily towards the Orthodox direction in a lot of those issues), but there's no reason for the hostility that exists b/w the two.

Some of the big clashes I foresee:

- Conversion process (we are already seeing a nasty battle taking place on this); Obviously, Orthodox Judaism only recognizes its own conversions, which I do as well, but at the same time the Rabbinate in Israel is putting its foot down on the necks of American and European Modern Orthodox/Orthodox Rabbis (in some cases it is needed, but in many cases it is not). Not to mention the elephant in the room in terms of Reform and Conservative conversion processes and whether or not they need to be considered kosher by Israeli Rabbinical courts.
- Intermarriage: I'm firmly orthodox on this: Intermarriage, long term, is devastating for Jewish identity and survival. BUT...Orthodox Jews choose to spit in the face of Reform and Conservative congregations instead of working with them to discuss this issue. Obviously, Jewish law states one's mother must be Jewish for the offspring to be Jewish. Its hard, if not impossible, to erase that fact, but we should not turn away kids of intermarriages...if those kids grew up in a Jewish environment and strongly identify with the culture, religion etc...than there needs to be a different conversion process for them*, so that they can still be considered Jewish by Jewish law.

* This is the only way I can see Orthodox Jews even agreeing to some sort of compromise on the issue but even this would be hard to push.

- Religious Liberty Issues: The Rabbinate has been warring with the Israeli Religious Action Center on a variety of major religious issues. I prefer that Orthodox Jews win out on this, but IRAC still has some demands that I'm not opposed too as well.

These three issues, imo, are driving this miscommunication between Israel and the progressive branches of Judaism in America.

What do you think, LLR?

[LLR]

What do you think, LLR?

Well, as a son of a convert (my mother), I tend to disagree with you on that. I also happen to be a very Reform Jew (mainly because we're too lazy to join a synagogue). But I do agree that too much conversion/intermarriage could potentially be bad.

Based on your points, I think that, politically, Orthodox and Reform Jews will diverge more - with reforms becoming 85% Dem and Orthodox becoming more of a swing demographic, depending on the candidate.

Given the high Jewish population in Florida - and it's high rate of growth - all of this is significant.

[SATW]

What do you think, LLR?

Well, as a son of a convert (my mother), I tend to disagree with you on that. I also happen to be a very Reform Jew (mainly because we're too lazy to join a synagogue). But I do agree that too much conversion/intermarriage could potentially be bad.

Based on your points, I think that, politically, Orthodox and Reform Jews will diverge more - with reforms becoming 85% Dem and Orthodox becoming more of a swing demographic, depending on the candidate.

Given the high Jewish population in Florida - and it's high rate of growth - all of this is significant.

Personally, I support recognizing Reform and Conservative conversions (at the end of the day, I see all movements as Jewish), which brings me out of Orthodox theological thought on this specifically (though, on a personal level, when I do religious things, its by Orthodox standards). My only caveat is that all of Judaism should have the same process.

My biggest disagreements with Reform (and some extent Conservative) thought is more of its views on halachic law being not as important as being in tune with the modern world is to them, but disagreements are perfectly fine in a healthy interdenominational dialogue.

My main thing is I want all three to accept that they don't agree on everything, and that there will be some awkward convos but that at the end of the day we are all Jewish, in some way.

Also, I think you might have misunderstood one of my points on conversion: i think the Israeli rabbinical courts are too strict in their standards. Like Ivanka Trump's rabbi's conversions not being considered legit...despite the fact that he is an orthodox rabbi.

Politically, I agree.

Modern Orthodox are trending to the middle
Hasidic are continuing to move right
Traditional, but not religious, Jews are also swingy
Reform are trending even more to the left
Conservative seem consistently center-left
Reconstructionist ? I only know one Recon Jewish person, so idk, but most likely left-wing?
Secular (no denomination), I'd say left-leaning, but I also know some right-wing secular Jews.

[SATW]

Also, important to note for people who aren't Jewish or followers of Israel:

- Israeli Rabbinical courts make their own rulings, but Israeli secular rule, in most cases, wins out, thanks to a strong supreme court and past government precedents in legislative action.

For example: To be eligible for  aliyah to Israel one of your parents or grandparents has to be Jewish, regardless of which parent it is.

This is how it should be as it avoids the tricky religious questions for different denominations.

[DC Al Fine]

If Jews flip it will be because their internal demographics have trended Orthodox.

You mean Ultra Orthodox.  Orthodox Jews are mainstream religious Jews.

I'm using orthodox in a clumsy manner. I mean to suggest that due to different birth rates, and secular Jews marrying out, that the Jewish population would trend more religious and potentially more Republican.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I really don't think that Israel is that big of an issue for many American Jews other then those who maybe have family ties to the country. It's tough for me to see American Jews trending towards the GOP given that it's tough to see them moving away from Trumpism in the future and I really can't see a Ted Cruz type winning much more then 20% max of the Jewish vote. I also don't think Jewish millennials are politically all that different from the rest of their generation.

[Suburbia]

I really don't think that Israel is that big of an issue for many American Jews other then those who maybe have family ties to the country. It's tough for me to see American Jews trending towards the GOP given that it's tough to see them moving away from Trumpism in the future and I really can't see a Ted Cruz type winning much more then 20% max of the Jewish vote. I also don't think Jewish millennials are politically all that different from the rest of their generation.

They're trending towards the GOP because the Democratic Party wants Palestinian voters. How can they sit by and watch Palestinians get access to the platform?

[LLR]

I really don't think that Israel is that big of an issue for many American Jews other then those who maybe have family ties to the country. It's tough for me to see American Jews trending towards the GOP given that it's tough to see them moving away from Trumpism in the future and I really can't see a Ted Cruz type winning much more then 20% max of the Jewish vote. I also don't think Jewish millennials are politically all that different from the rest of their generation.

They're trending towards the GOP because the Democratic Party wants Palestinian voters. How can they sit by and watch Palestinians get access to the platform?

Because many Jews support an independent Palestine.

[SATW]

I really don't think that Israel is that big of an issue for many American Jews other then those who maybe have family ties to the country. It's tough for me to see American Jews trending towards the GOP given that it's tough to see them moving away from Trumpism in the future and I really can't see a Ted Cruz type winning much more then 20% max of the Jewish vote. I also don't think Jewish millennials are politically all that different from the rest of their generation.

Most American Jews do indeed care about Israel but it isn't #1 for most of us. It most certainly bothered a good chunk of Jewish voters that the Iran deal was as divisive as it was. Many felt like they had to choose supporting Israel, or choose supporting their party.

That's not a good trend for Jewish voters in the Democratic Party, but...like I said, it's not the #1 issue for most Jews.

The GOP had been making in roads the last few cycles w/ Jews, but Trump is going to cause a massive setback for us, for sure.

[SATW]

I really don't think that Israel is that big of an issue for many American Jews other then those who maybe have family ties to the country. It's tough for me to see American Jews trending towards the GOP given that it's tough to see them moving away from Trumpism in the future and I really can't see a Ted Cruz type winning much more then 20% max of the Jewish vote. I also don't think Jewish millennials are politically all that different from the rest of their generation.

They're trending towards the GOP because the Democratic Party wants Palestinian voters. How can they sit by and watch Palestinians get access to the platform?

Because many Jews support an independent Palestine.

As long as Hillary's Democratic Party continues to run the program and platform, then LLR's comment is 100% true. She's relatively pro-Israel and pro-two state solution, which is a good balance for most American Jews.

However, If Bernie's nutso supporters who burned Israeli flags/snubbed Jewish support for BLM become a plurality, or a majority, than there will be a fracturing in the Jewish vote, I think.