When will Jewish voters leave the Democratic Party en masse?

[SATW]

Shut up.

I sometimes wonder if leftists on this forum know how to function in discussion properly. It is a very much real question to ask if Jewish voters are going to trend one way or another.

Jewish voters are mainly Pro-Israel, the Democratic Party (especially Bernie's wing) is starting to move away from that in certain areas of the country, this is especially concerning to East Coast Jewish communities in NY, NJ, MA, MD and FL.

Jewish voters are, generally, supportive of neoliberal economic policies (part of why many backed Hillary over Bernie). The constant attack on the 1% or any grouping of wealth in general is not something most Jews are ecstatic about.

Of course, there is a decent sized group of American Jews who like this rhetoric, due to their family's deep ties to organized labor and socialism in the early 1900's.

Jewish commitment to social equality and social justice, on balance, is one of the main factors keeping them solidly Democrat. The argument that "we were treated horribly, therefore we are obliged to fight for equality for all" still rings true to many people in the community.

HOWEVER, you have idiotic groups like Black Lives Matters, whose message many Jews want to support (see again: Jewish comm. to social justice), who have denounced Israel, support BDS and call Zionism racism. That doesn't sit well with Jewish communities or our leaders. Its stuff like this that can change the gears of how the secular to traditional Jews in this country vote.

Also, as noted by someone...Orthodox/Hasidic Jews are trending heavily R and are having more kids than secular/traditional Jews.  This could change American Jewish demographics long-term, but we'll get to this once/if it ever happens.

However, NONE of this is relevant in 2016: Trump is indeed scaring many Jewish voters. Not just the progressive Jews who were never going to vote Republican, but also the moderate-liberal, moderate and right-wing Jews as well.

Obviously, moderate-liberal and moderate Jews are likely to be socially liberal/progressive, economically centrist and somewhat hawkish on foreign policy. But, the first category is likely the main factor to drive them to vote against Trump.

right-wing Jews, like Bill Kristol/Robert Kagan types, are generally neoconservatives and do not like Trump's unpredictability on foreign policy and his disdain for free trade and they also don't trust him on Israel. Some will vote Hillary, most will either hold their nose for Trump or vote third party/write-in.

the far-right Jewish voting bloc (very small) are gung-ho for Trump due to single-issues. Could be immigration, could be taxes, could be Israel etc... (despite Trump being mediocre to horrible, by conservative standards, on all of these issues).

[SATW]

Also, some more things to think about for those curious:

- American Jews are becoming more sephardic/Mizrahi in some parts of the country, which means that there are growing communities of traditional, more right-leaning Jews.
- Intermarriage among secular Jews will effect Jewish cohesiveness in the U.S.
- Diaspora relationship w/ Israel, of course, is a big one too.

[SATW]

Excellent points (as always), Sunrise. However, one thing you neglected to mention is the growing secularism and growth of Reform Judaism, which contributes a little bit the other way.

But basically those posts are the answer to this thread.

Thanks! And good catch on that! Reform Judaism's popularity in the Diaspora, at some point, needs to be recognized/discussed by Israel's religious leadership.

My position has always been: I'm traditional, I believe in traditional Jewish, halachic values, but we - as a people, a religion, a nation - need to start having real discussions on religious theology so we can stay united.

Reform and Orthodox Judaism battle, constantly, on a large set of issues (and I tilt heavily towards the Orthodox direction in a lot of those issues), but there's no reason for the hostility that exists b/w the two.

Some of the big clashes I foresee:

- Conversion process (we are already seeing a nasty battle taking place on this); Obviously, Orthodox Judaism only recognizes its own conversions, which I do as well, but at the same time the Rabbinate in Israel is putting its foot down on the necks of American and European Modern Orthodox/Orthodox Rabbis (in some cases it is needed, but in many cases it is not). Not to mention the elephant in the room in terms of Reform and Conservative conversion processes and whether or not they need to be considered kosher by Israeli Rabbinical courts.
- Intermarriage: I'm firmly orthodox on this: Intermarriage, long term, is devastating for Jewish identity and survival. BUT...Orthodox Jews choose to spit in the face of Reform and Conservative congregations instead of working with them to discuss this issue. Obviously, Jewish law states one's mother must be Jewish for the offspring to be Jewish. Its hard, if not impossible, to erase that fact, but we should not turn away kids of intermarriages...if those kids grew up in a Jewish environment and strongly identify with the culture, religion etc...than there needs to be a different conversion process for them*, so that they can still be considered Jewish by Jewish law.

* This is the only way I can see Orthodox Jews even agreeing to some sort of compromise on the issue but even this would be hard to push.

- Religious Liberty Issues: The Rabbinate has been warring with the Israeli Religious Action Center on a variety of major religious issues. I prefer that Orthodox Jews win out on this, but IRAC still has some demands that I'm not opposed too as well.

These three issues, imo, are driving this miscommunication between Israel and the progressive branches of Judaism in America.

What do you think, LLR?

[SATW]

What do you think, LLR?

Well, as a son of a convert (my mother), I tend to disagree with you on that. I also happen to be a very Reform Jew (mainly because we're too lazy to join a synagogue). But I do agree that too much conversion/intermarriage could potentially be bad.

Based on your points, I think that, politically, Orthodox and Reform Jews will diverge more - with reforms becoming 85% Dem and Orthodox becoming more of a swing demographic, depending on the candidate.

Given the high Jewish population in Florida - and it's high rate of growth - all of this is significant.

Personally, I support recognizing Reform and Conservative conversions (at the end of the day, I see all movements as Jewish), which brings me out of Orthodox theological thought on this specifically (though, on a personal level, when I do religious things, its by Orthodox standards). My only caveat is that all of Judaism should have the same process.

My biggest disagreements with Reform (and some extent Conservative) thought is more of its views on halachic law being not as important as being in tune with the modern world is to them, but disagreements are perfectly fine in a healthy interdenominational dialogue.

My main thing is I want all three to accept that they don't agree on everything, and that there will be some awkward convos but that at the end of the day we are all Jewish, in some way.

Also, I think you might have misunderstood one of my points on conversion: i think the Israeli rabbinical courts are too strict in their standards. Like Ivanka Trump's rabbi's conversions not being considered legit...despite the fact that he is an orthodox rabbi.

Politically, I agree.

Modern Orthodox are trending to the middle
Hasidic are continuing to move right
Traditional, but not religious, Jews are also swingy
Reform are trending even more to the left
Conservative seem consistently center-left
Reconstructionist ? I only know one Recon Jewish person, so idk, but most likely left-wing?
Secular (no denomination), I'd say left-leaning, but I also know some right-wing secular Jews.

[SATW]

Also, important to note for people who aren't Jewish or followers of Israel:

- Israeli Rabbinical courts make their own rulings, but Israeli secular rule, in most cases, wins out, thanks to a strong supreme court and past government precedents in legislative action.

For example: To be eligible for  aliyah to Israel one of your parents or grandparents has to be Jewish, regardless of which parent it is.

This is how it should be as it avoids the tricky religious questions for different denominations.

[SATW]

I really don't think that Israel is that big of an issue for many American Jews other then those who maybe have family ties to the country. It's tough for me to see American Jews trending towards the GOP given that it's tough to see them moving away from Trumpism in the future and I really can't see a Ted Cruz type winning much more then 20% max of the Jewish vote. I also don't think Jewish millennials are politically all that different from the rest of their generation.

Most American Jews do indeed care about Israel but it isn't #1 for most of us. It most certainly bothered a good chunk of Jewish voters that the Iran deal was as divisive as it was. Many felt like they had to choose supporting Israel, or choose supporting their party.

That's not a good trend for Jewish voters in the Democratic Party, but...like I said, it's not the #1 issue for most Jews.

The GOP had been making in roads the last few cycles w/ Jews, but Trump is going to cause a massive setback for us, for sure.

[SATW]

I really don't think that Israel is that big of an issue for many American Jews other then those who maybe have family ties to the country. It's tough for me to see American Jews trending towards the GOP given that it's tough to see them moving away from Trumpism in the future and I really can't see a Ted Cruz type winning much more then 20% max of the Jewish vote. I also don't think Jewish millennials are politically all that different from the rest of their generation.

They're trending towards the GOP because the Democratic Party wants Palestinian voters. How can they sit by and watch Palestinians get access to the platform?

Because many Jews support an independent Palestine.

As long as Hillary's Democratic Party continues to run the program and platform, then LLR's comment is 100% true. She's relatively pro-Israel and pro-two state solution, which is a good balance for most American Jews.

However, If Bernie's nutso supporters who burned Israeli flags/snubbed Jewish support for BLM become a plurality, or a majority, than there will be a fracturing in the Jewish vote, I think.

[SATW]

Did not know Kustoff was Jewish lol (I mean, the name kind of gives it away but I never thought about it. I had friends on other campaigns in that district so I just never paid Kustoff much attention).

Also, LLR is right. Whatever few NYC Jewish Repubs are considering runs for office are better off going into party politics or lobbying or something else. There's not a lot of opportunities out there in NYC/Long Island right now for them. As a Jewish Republican, I'd prefer 'em there to help build up Jewish outreach.


Steve Israel's seat was a possibility, but no Jewish Repub ran to my knowledge.
I've met the GOP Nominee (He's Jewish; Phil Rosenthal) running against Jerry Nadler in the 10th district, but he won't win.

In NJ it's not easy either. Dick Zimmer was the last prominent Jewish Repub I can remember. Rabbi Shmuley Boteach ran for congress in 2012 in NJ but lost big.

In South Florida, it's been difficult as well. Ellyn Setnor Bogdanoff was a State Sen and State Rep but she lost in 2012. Adam Hasner was Rubio's Maj. Leader during his Speakership but Hasner's career seemed to stall when he lost a race for congress. Can't think of any Jewish Repubs in Maryland.

Josh Mandel in OH is Jewish.

I don't much about the West Coast Jewish Community so I'm kind of clueless about Jewish politics out there.

[SATW]

Eric Greitens is Jewish, the GOP nominee for gov of MO.

[SATW]

I really don't think that Israel is that big of an issue for many American Jews other then those who maybe have family ties to the country. It's tough for me to see American Jews trending towards the GOP given that it's tough to see them moving away from Trumpism in the future and I really can't see a Ted Cruz type winning much more then 20% max of the Jewish vote. I also don't think Jewish millennials are politically all that different from the rest of their generation.

They're trending towards the GOP because the Democratic Party wants Palestinian voters. How can they sit by and watch Palestinians get access to the platform?

Because many Jews support an independent Palestine.

As long as Hillary's Democratic Party continues to run the program and platform, then LLR's comment is 100% true. She's relatively pro-Israel and pro-two state solution, which is a good balance for most American Jews.

However, If Bernie's nutso supporters who burned Israeli flags/snubbed Jewish support for BLM become a plurality, or a majority, than there will be a fracturing in the Jewish vote, I think.

Reality is that Bernie was an aberration in terms of his FP, even bernie-type dems who may be fairly left economically, are still relatively hawkish like Warren, Gabbard, etc.

Agreed.

[SATW]

When they fully "integrate" and become culturally identical to white people.

But for real, the GOP needs to stop being so anti-intellectual. Jews are one of the most educated groups in the country and over 50% are secular.

Many Orthodox Jews and Hasidim are very well-educated and a good amount vote Republican. It is certainly more about secularism v. religiosity, I think.

But even in that topic...it's not black and white.

 Traditional, yet also nonreligious, Jews from the former Soviet Union tend to vote Republican while a lot of Modern Orthodox/"Observant" Jews (Joe Lieberman, essentially fits this category) vote Democrat.

[SATW]

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/bernie-sanders-trump-russians/477045/

Article about Former USSR/Russian Jewish voting patterns in 2016 (TL;DR version: they hate bernie, love trump).

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They won't, socially American Jews are quite liberal, and economically they are very liberal.

You are mixing it around. Jews are more liberal on social issues than economics. I'd say many American Jews are anywhere from pragmatic centrists to neoliberals/Third-Wayers on economic issues.

Of course, there are sizable amount economically conservative/Free Marketeer and social democratic and socialist Jews as well but neither are close to a majority.

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I like how people like to make assumptions about things they don't know, on both sides.

Jews do still deeply care about Israel, but they have (always) cared more about other issues, such as economic social justice and the like...these issues have always take preference to Israel and foreign policy among secular, reform and conservative Jews.

http://jcpa.org/article/the-2016-election-jews-and-their-politics/

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That being said, as the Pro-Israel community is not weakening (sorry to break it to Israel Haters like Andrew). But it is indeed changing.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Blogs/Message.aspx/8271#.V-B5efkrLIU (Don't really agree with the overtly right-wing tone of this article, but he brings up a lot of interesting points).

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http://www.frontpagemag.com/point/262493/70-russian-jews-may-vote-republican-2016-daniel-greenfield

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And as you can see in these two  excerpts, the pipedream that there aren't some trends favoring the GOP w/i the tribe are false.

[SATW]

Jews in the US increasingly don't care that much about Israel.

They should once they see the anti-Semites in the college campuses. It's clear that some leftist Democrats are too pro-Palestinian.

So "leftist democrats" are anti-semitic for being pro-Palestinian? How could you possibly interpret support for the Palestinian people (a Semitic group) as "anti-semitism"? That makes no sense.

This is what Bronz is referring too.

http://www.wiesenthal.com/atf/cf/%7B54d385e6-f1b9-4e9f-8e94-890c3e6dd277%7D/ANTI-SEMITISM_ON_CAMPUS-A_CLEAR_AND_PRESENT_DANGER-6-12-2015.PDF

http://www.amchainitiative.org/student-voices-being-jewish-on-campus/

http://www.trincoll.edu/NewsEvents/NewsArticles/Documents/Anti-Semitism%20Report%20Final.pdf

http://observer.com/2016/07/first-half-2016-anti-semitism-skyrockets-on-u-s-college-campuses/

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/anti-semitic-incidents-college-campuses-rise-adl-n596966

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/05/why-are-oberlin-s-students-so-silent-about-anti-semitism.html

Of course one can be Pro-Israel and Pro-Palestinian. Ideally this is how things should be, but its not.

Pro-Israel students, and Jewish students in general, on campus are facing brutal antisemitism at top public and private universities in North America and Europe.

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Most Jewish Democrats I know are economically progressive too. Don't forget that part of the equation!

Then again, American Jews can't be stereotyped as a monolithic voting bloc. Very politically diverse.

This is the right answer for analyzing American Jewish voting patterns.