Well, as a son of a convert (my mother), I tend to disagree with you on that. I also happen to be a very Reform Jew (mainly because we're too lazy to join a synagogue). But I do agree that too much conversion/intermarriage could potentially be bad.
Based on your points, I think that, politically, Orthodox and Reform Jews will diverge more - with reforms becoming 85% Dem and Orthodox becoming more of a swing demographic, depending on the candidate.
Given the high Jewish population in Florida - and it's high rate of growth - all of this is significant.