Donald Trump's best regions in Connecticut in GE
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  Donald Trump's best regions in Connecticut in GE
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Author Topic: Donald Trump's best regions in Connecticut in GE  (Read 958 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: August 13, 2016, 04:48:39 PM »

With Donald Trump competing in deep blue Connecticut, where are his best areas in the state?
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FairBol
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 04:53:52 PM »

I'd say in the northeastern sections of CT.  The large cities usually go Democratic. 
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2016, 05:02:13 PM »

Also Litchfield County in the NW. Romney carried it.
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2016, 07:03:51 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2016, 08:25:56 PM by cinyc »

Trump's best region will likely be the Naugatuck Valley, which generally runs along the CT-8 corridor in New Haven and Litchfield Counties (with a few Fairfield County towns thrown in).  That's towns like Seymour, Watertown and Middlebury.  It is the Republican heartland of Connecticut, to the extent Connecticut has a Republican heartland.  You can see the area
I'm referring to on the 2010 Connecticut PVI map in this old post.  I haven't recalculated town CT PVIs for 2012 - yet.

Trump's second best region will likely be in the more rural parts of Eastern Connecticut.

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The Arizonan
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2016, 07:07:21 PM »

I'd say the northern parts of Connecticut away from New York are the best ones for Donald Trump.

It's interesting that George H.W. Bush won this state in 1988, which wasn't that long ago.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2016, 07:21:15 PM »

The parts adjacent to Alabama.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2016, 07:34:21 PM »


Did you hear that Alabama is competitive this year?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2016, 07:36:13 PM »


That's why Trump went to CT, hoping to shore up Alabama without looking desperate.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2016, 07:45:16 PM »


That's why Trump went to CT, hoping to shore up Alabama without looking desperate.

He's trying to drive up Republican turnout in Bridgeport.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2016, 07:46:57 PM »

All of it
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LLR
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2016, 07:48:45 PM »

Litchfield and some parts of Fairfield
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2016, 11:25:08 PM »

Here's a map of the 2008-2012 Connecticut town PVI.  To calculate CT PVI, I took the two-party Democratic Percentage for the state and subtracted the two-party Democratic percentage for each town.  (Is that how PVI is calculated?  It's been a long time since I've done it).  Thus, it is a measure of how Democratic or Republican each town is relative to the state, not 50% or the national average.  Color gradation is in 2.5 point increments up to R/D +22.5 or higher:

 

If current trends hold, the dark blue areas are those that Trump should do relatively well in.  I'm not sold that rich New Canaan/Darien will be as pro-Trump as it was pro-Romney, though.  But, as I said, the deep-blue Naugatuck Valley towns likely will be Trump's best areas.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2016, 02:04:13 AM »

Can we discuss Hillary Clinton's best regions in Oklahoma next?
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2016, 12:08:52 PM »

Can we discuss Hillary Clinton's best regions in Oklahoma next?

If it gives me an excuse to make more maps, sure!  My guess is her best regions will be the cities, particularly Tulsa.  But I haven't looked all that closely at Oklahoma.
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