Donald Trump's best regions in Connecticut in GE (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 06:00:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Donald Trump's best regions in Connecticut in GE (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Donald Trump's best regions in Connecticut in GE  (Read 990 times)
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,719


« on: August 13, 2016, 07:03:51 PM »
« edited: August 13, 2016, 08:25:56 PM by cinyc »

Trump's best region will likely be the Naugatuck Valley, which generally runs along the CT-8 corridor in New Haven and Litchfield Counties (with a few Fairfield County towns thrown in).  That's towns like Seymour, Watertown and Middlebury.  It is the Republican heartland of Connecticut, to the extent Connecticut has a Republican heartland.  You can see the area
I'm referring to on the 2010 Connecticut PVI map in this old post.  I haven't recalculated town CT PVIs for 2012 - yet.

Trump's second best region will likely be in the more rural parts of Eastern Connecticut.

Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,719


« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 11:25:08 PM »

Here's a map of the 2008-2012 Connecticut town PVI.  To calculate CT PVI, I took the two-party Democratic Percentage for the state and subtracted the two-party Democratic percentage for each town.  (Is that how PVI is calculated?  It's been a long time since I've done it).  Thus, it is a measure of how Democratic or Republican each town is relative to the state, not 50% or the national average.  Color gradation is in 2.5 point increments up to R/D +22.5 or higher:

 

If current trends hold, the dark blue areas are those that Trump should do relatively well in.  I'm not sold that rich New Canaan/Darien will be as pro-Trump as it was pro-Romney, though.  But, as I said, the deep-blue Naugatuck Valley towns likely will be Trump's best areas.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,719


« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2016, 12:08:52 PM »

Can we discuss Hillary Clinton's best regions in Oklahoma next?

If it gives me an excuse to make more maps, sure!  My guess is her best regions will be the cities, particularly Tulsa.  But I haven't looked all that closely at Oklahoma.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 13 queries.