Who'll win the Milwaukee suburbs?

[Suburbia]

Who will win the conservative-leaning Milwaukee suburbs (Waukesha, etc.)? Will the effects of the 2016 Milwaukee shooting cause a "white backlash" there?

[ill ind]

I don't see where any of the WOW (Waukesha,Ozaukee,Wasington) counties become any more anti-Milwaukee than they already are.

[ElectionsGuy]

We're talking about the outside counties? Trump for sure, but the Milwaukee County suburbs will go toward Clinton. The Milwaukee shootings and protests anger people who are already on Trump's side the most. A lot of people in WOW already have a very hostile feeling toward the city of Milwaukee, I think this is just more evidence of its terribleness in their mind rather than change people's minds.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Considering those are already some of the most Republican-leaning suburbs in the country, it would be a shock if Trump didn't win there. I do think his margin will be worse than prior Republicans in that area though, given that many of those voters are from the Paul Ryan wing of the party that Trump has done quite a bit to alienate over the course of the campaign.

I don't think the recent events there are going to swing too many votes. Most of that reaction is already baked in solely on partisan identity.

[Suburbia]

We're talking about the outside counties? Trump for sure, but the Milwaukee County suburbs will go toward Clinton. The Milwaukee shootings and protests anger people who are already on Trump's side the most. A lot of people in WOW already have a very hostile feeling toward the city of Milwaukee, I think this is just more evidence of its terribleness in their mind rather than change people's minds.

Has there always been bitter division between WOW and Milwaukee?

[ElectionsGuy]

We're talking about the outside counties? Trump for sure, but the Milwaukee County suburbs will go toward Clinton. The Milwaukee shootings and protests anger people who are already on Trump's side the most. A lot of people in WOW already have a very hostile feeling toward the city of Milwaukee, I think this is just more evidence of its terribleness in their mind rather than change people's minds.

Has there always been bitter division between WOW and Milwaukee?

Yes. At least since WOW became decently populated.

[Maxwell]

I think WOW will trend to Clinton actually - they're very conservative but they're not Trumpian. I expect a decline in turnout.

[Suburbia]

I think WOW will trend to Clinton actually - they're very conservative but they're not Trumpian. I expect a decline in turnout.

Won't the Milwaukee unrest change that a little?

[Xing]

Trump will win the WOW counties, but by a much smaller margin than most Republicans.

[Maxwell]

I think WOW will trend to Clinton actually - they're very conservative but they're not Trumpian. I expect a decline in turnout.

Won't the Milwaukee unrest change that a little?

no, it won't beyond marginal "lolol we dislike milwaukee"

[NOVA Green]

I think WOW will trend to Clinton actually - they're very conservative but they're not Trumpian. I expect a decline in turnout.

Won't the Milwaukee unrest change that a little?

Doubt it.... this is a blip on the radar.

A few hundred people in a rough neighborhood set a cop car on fire, and burn down a few local businesses after a cop shooting, where we still don't really know many details.

WOW lives a world apart from the City, but still like many MidWest Metro areas, at this point they are completely unaffected, and plus this isn't anything like the '67 urban unrest.

Neither isn't anything like real urban unrest in Milwaukee in the late 1800s when National Guard troops murdered (7) as part of a "shoot to kill" policy during a massive strike in the city...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_View_massacre

[Adam Griffin]

Depends on what you classify as "the Milwaukee suburbs". If you're excluding the city proper from that, then it's likely a Trump win. Look at 2008, which was an 8-point McCain victory:



Even if you use this definition and include Sheboygan and Walworth in that, the margin doesn't change.

Including Milwaukee city proper results in a 10-point Obama win in 2008, so it's safe to say that regardless of your definition, there's probably a likely winner: if you include the city, Clinton definitely wins. If you don't, then Trump probably still pulls out a victory even with the backlash.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump will win the WOW area

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump probably

[NOVA Green]

Depends on what you classify as "the Milwaukee suburbs". If you're excluding the city proper from that, then it's likely a Trump win. Look at 2008, which was an 8-point McCain victory:



Even if you use this definition and include Sheboygan and Walworth in that, the margin doesn't change.

Including Milwaukee city proper results in a 10-point Obama win in 2008, so it's safe to say that regardless of your definition, there's probably a likely winner: if you include the city, Clinton definitely wins. If you don't, then Trump probably still pulls out a victory even with the backlash.

Nice.... President Griffin!

You pulled that from GIS and state precinct results I'm assuming?

[Adam Griffin]

Nice.... President Griffin!

You pulled that from GIS and state precinct results I'm assuming?

http://www.gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

[OwlRhetoric]

Trump. The suburbs around the Twin Cities generally detest riots when they get stirred up, and I imagine there's a similar effect on people around Milwaukee.

[Badger]

Trump will win the WOW counties, but by a much smaller margin than most Republicans.

[Adam Griffin]

Trump. The suburbs around the Twin Cities generally detest riots when they get stirred up, and I imagine there's a similar effect on people around Milwaukee.

For the last god-forsaken time, people are not going to make their pick for leader of the free world based on local protests and riots. The only people who would supposedly do that are already firmly in one candidate's hemisphere and they mistakenly, chronically seem to think others give a damn about those "issues".

[Alcon]

Putting aside the possible subtle psychological priming riots might cause, the election is 2 1/2 months away.  How many episodic news stories from 2 1/2 months ago do you consciously think about, let alone the average voter?