How will NJ vote ?

[jman123]

Any predictions for NJ? Estimate margins

[Likely Voter]

This is relevant, it was reported a couple of days ago the Trump campaign closed their NJ office, but since that report they are saying they will open up another but no specifics on where or when.

[Suburbia]

This is relevant, it was reported a couple of days ago the Trump campaign closed their NJ office, but since that report they are saying they will open up another but no specifics on where or when.

I actually drive around that area. Clinton will win 57-42.

[DINGO Joe]

Trump won't even get his deposit back with that kind of cleanup job

[Del Tachi]

Clinton will break 60%

[Fusionmunster]

Clinton will break 60%

I doubt it. Republicans have a high floor and Democrats have a low ceiling, unlike New York. I'd imagine if there was ever a time for a dem to break 60%, it would have been Obama in 2012 with republican turnout depressed and he only managed 58%.

[Suburbia]

Clinton will break 60%

I doubt it. Republicans have a high floor and Democrats have a low ceiling, unlike New York. I'd imagine if there was ever a time for a dem to break 60%, it would have been Obama in 2012 with republican turnout depressed and he only managed 58%.

Clinton may have lower voter turnout near Middlesex County College in Edison and Rutgers University in New Brunswick.

[TDAS04]

Clinton will break 60%

I think there is a good chance of this.  New Jersey has a large minority population, and NJ Republicans are somewhat more moderate than Republicans outside the Northeast, even if they like personalities like Christie.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I have a feeling Clinton tops 60%, since minority turnout in the Turnpike corridor (southern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union, Middlesex, Mercer, Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester counties) as well as downtrodden Atlantic County and the minority-heavy southern agricultural counties of Cumberland and Salem will be high in opposition to Trump and conservative suburban areas like my native Morris County as well as northern Passaic/Bergen counties will see turnout drop and/or see mass defections to Clinton on account of Trump's tanking with college educated whites, which make up the bulk of the population in New Jersey's conservative NYC suburbs. However, Trump may very well overperform Romney in "Springstein country" along the Shore in Monmouth and Ocean counties, so that'll keep Clinton from going much above 60%, perhaps a 61%-37% or so margin.

[Flake]

I have a feeling Clinton tops 60%, since minority turnout in the Turnpike corridor (southern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union, Middlesex, Mercer, Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester counties) as well as downtrodden Atlantic County and the minority-heavy southern agricultural counties of Cumberland and Salem will be high in opposition to Trump and conservative suburban areas like my native Morris County as well as northern Passaic/Bergen counties will see turnout drop and/or see mass defections to Clinton on account of Trump's tanking with college educated whites, which make up the bulk of the population in New Jersey's conservative NYC suburbs. However, Trump may very well overperform Romney in "Springstein country" along the Shore in Monmouth and Ocean counties, so that'll keep Clinton from going much above 60%, perhaps a 61%-37% or so margin.

I doubt it, they seem like the college educated white folks that Trump is actually losing.

I don't think Clinton will get more than 60%, but she'll have a much wider margin against Trump than Romney vs. Obama due to the booming latino population and the unusually high number of third party voters. Also depends on cities like Camden and East Orange's turnout rate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

58-39

[The Arizonan]

I'll make a prediction and say that Hillary Clinton gets around 65% of the vote.

New Jersey is a deep blue state and yet six out its twelve representatives in the House are Republicans.

[jman123]

I have a feeling Clinton tops 60%, since minority turnout in the Turnpike corridor (southern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union, Middlesex, Mercer, Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester counties) as well as downtrodden Atlantic County and the minority-heavy southern agricultural counties of Cumberland and Salem will be high in opposition to Trump and conservative suburban areas like my native Morris County as well as northern Passaic/Bergen counties will see turnout drop and/or see mass defections to Clinton on account of Trump's tanking with college educated whites, which make up the bulk of the population in New Jersey's conservative NYC suburbs. However, Trump may very well overperform Romney in "Springstein country" along the Shore in Monmouth and Ocean counties, so that'll keep Clinton from going much above 60%, perhaps a 61%-37% or so margin.

So you think Hispanic turnout will be high?

[Suburbia]

I have a feeling Clinton tops 60%, since minority turnout in the Turnpike corridor (southern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union, Middlesex, Mercer, Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester counties) as well as downtrodden Atlantic County and the minority-heavy southern agricultural counties of Cumberland and Salem will be high in opposition to Trump and conservative suburban areas like my native Morris County as well as northern Passaic/Bergen counties will see turnout drop and/or see mass defections to Clinton on account of Trump's tanking with college educated whites, which make up the bulk of the population in New Jersey's conservative NYC suburbs. However, Trump may very well overperform Romney in "Springstein country" along the Shore in Monmouth and Ocean counties, so that'll keep Clinton from going much above 60%, perhaps a 61%-37% or so margin.

I doubt it, they seem like the college educated white folks that Trump is actually losing.

I don't think Clinton will get more than 60%, but she'll have a much wider margin against Trump than Romney vs. Obama due to the booming latino population and the unusually high number of third party voters. Also depends on cities like Camden and East Orange's turnout rate.

Do you think she'll lose voter turnout near New Brunswick and Edison,  the Middlesex County College/Rutgers University area?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Blue

[Seriously?]

There's nothing better on this site than witnessing the actual denial on the Democrats actors' part that because Trump is the devil to them that everyone must hate Trump and that Clinton will somehow manage to exceed numbers that even their dear beloved Obama didn't manage to reach.

The reality is that Trump is very well known in and around New Jersey. He has been for years. He's going to do very well with the blue collar vote and the white Catholic vote there. As a result, he will improve upon Romney's margin in 2012.

He won't win the state by any means, but will exceed every red avatar's biased expectation.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I have a feeling Clinton tops 60%, since minority turnout in the Turnpike corridor (southern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union, Middlesex, Mercer, Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester counties) as well as downtrodden Atlantic County and the minority-heavy southern agricultural counties of Cumberland and Salem will be high in opposition to Trump and conservative suburban areas like my native Morris County as well as northern Passaic/Bergen counties will see turnout drop and/or see mass defections to Clinton on account of Trump's tanking with college educated whites, which make up the bulk of the population in New Jersey's conservative NYC suburbs. However, Trump may very well overperform Romney in "Springstein country" along the Shore in Monmouth and Ocean counties, so that'll keep Clinton from going much above 60%, perhaps a 61%-37% or so margin.

So you think Hispanic turnout will be high?

I do believe so, for many Hispanics Trump poses an existential threat to their families or even to themselves, and that is a very powerful motivator. Plus New Jersey is changing very rapidly. Non-Hispanic White numbers aren't just declining by percentage but by raw totals as well even as the state continues to grow modestly, which means Hispanics, blacks, and Asians (including a significant number of Indians in places like Parsippany, Bridgewater, and Edison) are making up for the deficit of fleeing whites in addition to providing overall positive growth in the state, and these voters are not exactly Trump supporters. So combine that with the fact that much of New Jersey's predominantly upper-crust establishment-type Republican core (which imo comprises a solid majority of New Jersey's Republican base) either sitting this out or voting Clinton/Johnson and I don't see how Clinton doesn't at the very least beat Obama 2012 by a point or two.