Why will Donald Trump win or lose in your view?

[Senator Spark]

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

He'll lose for a number of reason.
1. The Majority of this country doesnt want to elect a party that doesn't want to govern and do what is needed to maintain America. When you have solid sectors of your party talking about abolishing the epa, energy department or even going as far as privatizing social security...Well, over 50% of society doesn't like it and will vote against you. Republicans would probably win if it was about efficiency and demanding better but the party has gone insane.

2. Trump is a jerk and a blowhard. The guy insults everyone and appears to be mentally unstable. We can't have that as the president.
3. He doesn't respect the first amendment and the press.
4. The guy comes off as heartless. Part of this is of course his attachment to the party in 1...The republican party appears to be only for the super rich because of it.

[Ebowed]

America won't elect Donald Trump, because he'd make a terrible President.

He has demonstrated a total ineptness that will come to define the very concept of being politically unprepared for years to come.  The very best case scenario is that he would be in so over his head that employees of the government would effectively be able to ignore anything he says or does.  

The more likely reality, if he were to be elected, would be a government that quickly destroys its international standing, erases any financial credibility, and the proliferation of numerous trends that will accelerate societal collapse: the glorification of poor educational attainment; the demonization of accuracy and fact-checking in journalism; the spread of racist hate speech and conspiracy theories; the continued sustaining of movements that ignore scientific evidence regarding climate change and vaccines, among many other things; a tendency to ignore major health crises like the lead poisoning in Flint; I can go on and on.  Children will become meaner to each other.  Our country will revert to being a den of hate goaded on by the glamorization of blatant inequality and unfairness.  Donald Trump and wealthy families like his own will squander the middle class for all of its last remaining riches, before tossing the remains to the dogs.

An unethical narcissist like Donald Trump has no care or regard for the future of the country, or the well-being of its residents.

And that's why Donald Trump will lose in disgrace.

[Ogre Mage]

1.  He will lose because he has failed to unify his party
2.  He will lose because everyone can see he doesn't have the proper temperament and preparedness to be president
3.  He will lose because his campaign strategy is beyond stupid (campaigning in Connecticut?)
4.  He will lose because Clinton is flooding the airwaves with ads and he isn't responding
5.  He will lose because his ground game is almost nonexistent and Clinton's is robust
6.  He will lose because he wallows around in ignorance, hate and nonstop lies which are easily refuted
7.  He will lose because his ego is so oversized he won't adjust when necessary
8.  He will lose because he has no message discipline
9.  He will lose because of the demographics he has alienated
10.  He will lose because he is a loser

[Adam Griffin]

Trump will lose because he has pushed the Republican Party to near-caricature status, and in the process, has alienated millions upon millions of people who would have otherwise at least taken a look at the GOP after 8 years of a Democratic White House. In fact, his presence may have permanently alienated many of these voters from ever looking at the Republican Party again.

The groups of people who sympathize with him are consistently declining in numbers and influence, and have been doing so for quite some time. Concurrently, the groups of people who find even broad elements of his worldview unpalatable continue to increase in number.

If your party can't win a federal election from its current ideological position, then it will never win one from an even more extreme position. This is what Trump offers America. Democrats have won the popular vote in five out of the past six presidential elections and three out of the past five congressional elections. And there is no evidence that the country as a whole in moving in the direction of the GOP when it comes to popular sentiment.

[Lyin' Steve]

He'll lose because he doesn't know what the hell he's doing.  He's being dramatically out-manouevred by Hillary Clinton on every front.  She's annihilating him in the media, her ground game will give her a massive turnout advantage, and he simply can't keep up with her on policy or political strategy.  Furthermore, she's destroying his credibility on the airwaves with her tremendous fundraising advantage, which is why he's down by at least five points in every swing state and having to fight in states that would ordinarily be Safe R.  As if the status quo wasn't bleak enough, there's also every indication that Hillary will absolutely slaughter Trump in the debates.  If there's even a 1% chance he can win come October, Hillary can mobilize a murderer's row of charismatic, well-liked politicians to stump for her around the country, while Trump will likely have to face down desperate members of his own party who turn to bashing him as a re-election strategy when their political careers are about to end.

Even if by some miracle for Trump there's a major Clinton scandal, she can always just resign and let Tim Kaine take over the ticket, a man who is just as capable and electable as she is.  There's no way Trump wins this.

[Xing]

He'll lose for several reasons:

1) He has no real substance and is completely unqualified. Sure, some voters don't care about that, but I'm confident that enough do.

2) He has no self control, and makes a fool out of himself at every possible opportunity. Just because that got him a plurality of Republicans doesn't mean it'll get him a majority of Americans.

3) There are even people within his own party who reject him. Not a majority, but he's losing too many Republicans to stand a realistic chance of winning.

4) He has no organization, and while a good ground game and GOTV effort isn't everything, you simply won't get as many votes if you can't get your voters to the polls.

5) He energizes people... to vote against him. Plenty of people who are lukewarm about Hillary at best will enthusiastically support her just to stop him from becoming president.

[HAnnA MArin County]

He'll lose because he pretty much has offended every demographic group/voting bloc in the country aside from his base of uneducated blue-collar/working class white heterosexual men and has driven them into the HRC. He fails to understand that he cannot win a general election in the same manner that he won the primary by hurling insults and name calling anyone who was against him.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Trump will lose because Litchman Test says so.

https://seanmunger.com/2014/11/05/the-13-keys-predict-the-presidential-election-of-2016-and-the-winner-is/

[Redban]

1). The GOP cannot win minorities, which hurts them now more than it ever did. This problem predates Donald Trump, so it's not his fault.

2). The Polarized, inelastic electorate means Hillary automatically has most of Obama's voters from the start, without her even trying; and Trump has little means of getting their support. 

In other words, the current environment and the Republican brand are the main reasons for which Trump will lose.

[LLR]

He will lose because more people will vote for Hillary Clinton than him.

[Wells]

Trump will lose because sane people outnumber the others.

[Sir Mohamed]

He’ll lose for several reasons:

First, he insulted entire population groups and/or has no appeal to them. The GOP analyzed after its 2012 defeat, that they have to reach out to latinos in order to win again. Now they have a dude as their nominee, who denounced a substantial number as drug dealers and rapists. The same with women: he has a long history of insulting women. Let alone the GOP’s huge problems with blacks. In addition, college-educated whites who usually lean Republican and voted for Romney the last time hesitate to cast their ballot for Trump. With this demographic problems, his path to 270 electoral votes became very thin.

Second, the debate is now about his sanity and character. A majority of voters feel that he can’t be trusted with nuclear weapons and that he is unaware of foreign-policy basics. That may be funny for a while on TV, but when it comes down to put him in charge, it’s something different. He failed to use voter’s reservations with Hillary to his gain. The public debate aside from Fox "News" is now about his shortcomings, not Hillary’s e-mail problems. In short: He doesn’t know how to run a general election campaign and, like on other topics, he proved that he’s unable or unwilling to learn.

Third, party unity and with it tremendous problems to raise money and built a campaign infrastructure. Especially the lack of a ground game is problematic. He thinks it’s enough to gather enough people to his rallies. He doesn’t understand that most of these people vote for him anyway. He needs a ground game, campaign at other locations (even spontaneous, like at restaurants etc.) and buy adds on TV/radio.

Forth, all in all, his negatives are too high to recover within 85 days. Unless something really bad brings Hillary down, the Trumpster is done.

[Adam Griffin]

1). The GOP cannot win minorities, which hurts them now more than it ever did. This problem predates Donald Trump, so it's not his fault.

2). The Polarized, inelastic electorate means Hillary automatically has most of Obama's voters from the start, without her even trying; and Trump has little means of getting their support. 

In other words, the current environment and the Republican brand are the main reasons for which Trump will lose.

Compared to 2012, all he had to do was improve white performance by 2 points, rebound to the historically-normal 10% among black voters, and improve 5 points among Latinos and Asians. All of that was perfectly possible this cycle...at least for most GOP candidates. Putting the race completely out of reach was Trump's doing and his doing alone.

[Redban]

1). The GOP cannot win minorities, which hurts them now more than it ever did. This problem predates Donald Trump, so it's not his fault.

2). The Polarized, inelastic electorate means Hillary automatically has most of Obama's voters from the start, without her even trying; and Trump has little means of getting their support.  

In other words, the current environment and the Republican brand are the main reasons for which Trump will lose.

Compared to 2012, all he had to do was improve white performance by 2 points, rebound to the historically-normal 10% among black voters, and improve 5 points among Latinos and Asians. All of that was perfectly possible this cycle...at least for most GOP candidates. Putting the race completely out of reach was Trump's doing and his doing alone.

1). To improve with the white vote by "2 points" is harder than it sounds. Romney's 59% was already high (close to Reagan's performance), and "2 points" is equal to millions of people because of the size of the White population. Additionally, much of the white vote consists of die-hard Democrats, especially in the coastal regions and in certain Midwest states (e.g. Minnesota); so there is a ceiling in the GOP's performance among whites.

2). With Obama in office, there is little chance that the GOP could get 10% of blacks. Twice, Obama won 95% of their votes, and throughout his Presidency, Obama's lowest approval rating with Blacks was 84%.

3). Moreover, you have to consider turnout for Blacks. When the GOP won 10% of Blacks, the Black turnout was modest (60% or less). Now, they're turning out at 67%, and they're voting 95% Democrat (instead of 85%). Likely, the blacks who gave Bush over 10% are still voting Republican. The difference is that those Blacks are being outnumbered by the new Black voters. Thus, you cannot refer to "the historically-normal 10%" in today's new electorate.

4). I agree that most GOP candidates could have improved by 5% (even 10%) with the Asian and Latino votes. Still, even if they had achieved this goal, the only state they would flip in consequence is Florida (using the 2012 map).

[DINGO Joe]

He will lose because he's Donald [inksin'] Trump.  There is no way around it. 

[Bojack Horseman]

1.  He will lose because he has failed to unify his party
2.  He will lose because everyone can see he doesn't have the proper temperament and preparedness to be president
3.  He will lose because his campaign strategy is beyond stupid (campaigning in Connecticut?)
4.  He will lose because Clinton is flooding the airwaves with ads and he isn't responding
5.  He will lose because his ground game is almost nonexistent and Clinton's is robust
6.  He will lose because he wallows around in ignorance, hate and nonstop lies which are easily refuted
7.  He will lose because his ego is so oversized he won't adjust when necessary
8.  He will lose because he has no message discipline
9.  He will lose because of the demographics he has alienated
10.  He will lose because he is a loser

All of these plus the fact that he scared most reasonable Americans into going to the polls just to vote against him.

[Kevin]

As of now he'll lose(and that will hold until Nov unless there is some major drastic change(which could happen)

1. Trump has insulted numerous groups across the spectrum whether it's hispanics, veterans etc.
2. He has pursued numerous and pointless damaging fights that has driven his message off track(ex. the judge, the Muslim Gold Star family, Ted Cruz-I could go on)
3.He has not invested in the infastructure needed to win a nationwide campaign(he has no field offices, no advertising planned in critical swing states etc). He needed to have done this a bare minimum when he wrapped up the nomination back in April/May. Or hiring campaign staff. Rasing money etc.
4. Trump hasn't invested any resources or time into improving his knowledge of things like domestic public policy, foreign affairs etc.
5. He hasn't pursued party unity despite giving it lip service, groups like SoCons and the Establishment alike don't trust him. And he is still picking fights with standard bearers like Ted Cruz and John Kasich.
6. He has ruined any credibilty he has had of the public taking him seriously do to all of the above.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

At the risk of repeating what other have said, Trump will lose because (in no particular order):

1. The nationwide electorate has fundamentally shifted towards the Democrats, and the GOP that wins conservative House districts is not the GOP that can win nationally.

2. Trump has failed to get the backing of the GOP establishment, the conservative movement, or corporate America. 

3. Two thirds of Americans view Trump unfavorably, and a majority do not believe he is qualified to be President.  Clinton may have a 10-point net unfavorability, but most Americans believe she is qualified.

4. Clinton has many more viable paths to an electoral victory available.  In a close race, Trump must pick up Florida, Ohio, and either Pennsylvania or Virginia in order to win.  His margin for error is very small, while Clinton has breathing room.

[Hermit For Peace]

Here's the simple reason why he's going to lose: he represents a society that exists no longer, only in the minds of a few holdouts and leftovers.

White male supremacy has ended its exclusive run.

With the Internet age, it's all about inclusion, how everyone matters. All genders, all colors, all races, all beliefs, all religions.... And Hillary is the one offering that message. Regardless of who the messenger is (whether you love her or hate her), it's all about the message.

Trump's message has already bit the dust.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

1). The GOP cannot win minorities, which hurts them now more than it ever did. This problem predates Donald Trump, so it's not his fault.

Not only does it predate Trump in politics, it predates Trumps birth: The last time a Republican won the minority vote was in 1928.

[Phony Moderate]

He'll lose because the Republicans can't win the presidency without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

He'll lose because the Republicans can't win the presidency without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket.

There's still time to drop Pence and bribe Jay Nixon to change parties!

[ProudModerate2]

trump will lose because instead of acting presidential and taking the election seriously, he instead conducts himself like an orange-haired clown from Ringling Bros and Barnum & Bailey Circus.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Too many voters hate him or his views and won't vote for him.