Poll: Three months out, truly "can anything happen?"

[Brittain33]

It seems as if every news article discussing Hillary's large poll lead and Trump's disastrous image among most of the electorate says "but with several weeks left, the election's not over / anything can happen."

Is that true? Can anything change the dynamic significantly enough that Trump could be elected?

Note that I am not asking about whether Hillary has a 100% chance of winning; I am assuming that even if she leaves the race somehow, Tim Kaine still wins, and that nearly any conceivable scandal she would still survive and win or (less likely) Johnson would ride it to victory.  

[Torie]

Nothing is ever at absolute zero, but given Trump's character flaws, it is asymptotically close to absolute zero.

[Redban]

A major economic collapse, an horrific terrorist attack, or a serious scandal can change the race. Otherwise, the numbers will likely remain where they are right now.

People like to mention the debates, but in actuality, debates have never moved the needle. See the following article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/03/what-political-scientists-know-about-debates/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Actually - I think only an economic shock/massive massive personal scandal would undo Clinton.

[Brittain33]

I don't think an economic shock would hurt Clinton because Trump has defined himself as erratic, impulsive, and having bad judgment. That trumps him being in the "out" party. People seeking stability will go to Clinton.

For similar reasons, I don't think a massive terrorist attack favors him, plus Clinton has shown she can present as tough and hawkish.

I am skeptical any devastating personal scandal is possible for Hillary after 25+ years in the spotlight paired with a personal scandal magnet.

I think "asymptotically close to zero" is the best way to describe the situation.

[Redban]

I don't think an economic shock would hurt Clinton because Trump has defined himself as erratic, impulsive, and having bad judgment. That trumps him being in the "out" party. People seeking stability will go to Clinton.

For similar reasons, I don't think a massive terrorist attack favors him, plus Clinton has shown she can present as tough and hawkish.

I am skeptical any devastating personal scandal is possible for Hillary after 25+ years in the spotlight paired with a personal scandal magnet.

1). The current President is a Democrat who has the exact political views that Hillary Clinton does. If there is a major terrorist attack or financial crisis, then Clinton will take the blame, regardless of Trump's supposedly being "erratic, impulsive, and having bad judgment." History has proved this point several times (e.g. Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush). Never has there been an example in which the incumbent party didn't take the blame for a major crisis because the opposing candidate was so bad.

2). That she currently has a low approval rating shows that she is not immune to devastating personal scandals, despite 25+ years in the spotlight. She will fall if a scandal is devastating enough.

[BlueSwan]

I'm feeling good about Hillary's chances right now. Much better than I did about Obama's chances 3 months out in 2012 or 2008. But yes, anything can still happen. 538 gives Trump a roughly 20% chance of winning and that is still way to high for comfort. I do worry about Wikileaks. Not that I think they will reveal anything major, but I don't trust the mainstream media. They might very well blow it completely out of proportion as usual if there is ANYTHING of vague substance.

[Suburbia]

If a major terrorist attack happens, racial unrest, anti cop shootings, or a major economic slump, then Trump could win. The election is lean Democratic right now. If any other cop is hurt or dead, the Democrats are toast.

[Blair]

If a major terrorist attack happens, racial unrest, anti cop shootings, or a major economic slump, then Trump could win. The election is lean Democratic right now. If any other cop is hurt or dead, the Democrats are toast.

We heard this, yet his response to Orlando was awful. Even if there's a terrorist attack it highlights Trump's biggest flaw- you don't want him in the Situation room

[Chief Justice Keef]

Close to 0%, but that's obviously because the election will have been rigged by Hitlery!!!1!

/s

[Brittain33]

If any other cop is hurt or dead, the Democrats are toast.

Sadly, police officers lose their lives in the line of duty on average every three days. It is likely some have died since Baton Rouge and Dallas and a certainty that some will before Election Day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_police_officers_killed_in_the_line_of_duty

It's really, really hard to see something like this flipping the election to Trump.

[Lincoln Republican]

Well, it's not over 'till the fat lady sings, but I think she is rehearsing backstage.

[Dr. Arch]

Well, it's not over 'till the fat lady sings, but I think she is rehearsing backstage.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton is up three touchdowns at the start of the fourth quarter (or is up two goals in the 75th minute).  If she doesn't do anything stupid, she should win.

[Spark]

Greater than 0

[Phony Moderate]

It's 2016, so option 2.