CPD announces 5 debate qualifying polls - UPDATE: Johnson average 7.0%

[F_S_USATN]

ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC, Fox News and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls will be averaged to determine 15% support threshold for inclusion in presidential debates, CNN reports.

*Gallup’s Frank Newport advised on which polls to use, commission says

*Criteria “will be applied in mid-September,” commission says; first debate is Sept. 26

*Candidates who don’t qualify for first debate could qualify for second or third debate, commission says

*NOTE: Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party’s Jill Stein are seeking to qualify for debates along with Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-08-15/presidential-debate-commission-announces-5-qualifying-polls-cnn

[F_S_USATN]

Here's what I get when I average them:

HRC 44.1
Trump 36.2
Johnson 8.9
Undecided 7.1
Other 3.7

[Phony Moderate]

I've always preferred the PDC to the BDO.

[dspNY]

ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC, Fox News and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls will be averaged to determine 15% support threshold for inclusion in presidential debates, CNN reports.

*Gallup’s Frank Newport advised on which polls to use, commission says

*Criteria “will be applied in mid-September,” commission says; first debate is Sept. 26

*Candidates who don’t qualify for first debate could qualify for second or third debate, commission says

*NOTE: Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party’s Jill Stein are seeking to qualify for debates along with Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-08-15/presidential-debate-commission-announces-5-qualifying-polls-cnn

I could see Johnson making the last debate once Trump bombs in the first debate (or if he skips them)

[Ebsy]

Those were the 5 I would have expected.

[heatcharger]

Question: If Trump storms out of the first debate and vows to not do the second and third debates, does Pence still do the VP debate? Because a Kaine v. Weld debate is the one we actually deserve.

[Vosem]

Johnson currently at 8 on ABC, 9 on CNN, 10 on CBS and NBC, 12 on Fox. Stein currently not included by CBS or Fox, and 4-5 on the other three.

[The Other Castro]

I wonder if this puts pressure on CBS/NYT and FOX to include Stein in their next polls.

[heatcharger]

I wonder if this puts pressure on CBS/NYT and FOX to include Stein in their next polls.

Even though I can't stand her the only fair thing to do is to include her now.

[amdcpus]

Here's what I get when I average them:

HRC 44.1
Trump 36.2
Johnson 8.9
Undecided 7.1
Other 3.7

Johnson is at 9.8, not 8.9.

[Likely Voter]

As expected they used the same list as last time but swapped out CNN for Gallup (who are sitting out this election for horse race polling). 


Here is what I get when I average the last 5 polls (note using 3-way for CBS and and FOX who are not polling Stein as of now).

Current 5-Poll CPD Average
Clinton   44.00
Trump   36.20
Johnson   9.80
Stein   4.67

For comparison I took a look at where things were a month ago....

Before the conventions 5-Poll CPD Average
Clinton   40.40
Trump   36.40
Johnson   10.80
Stein   5.33

So Stein and Johnson have actually trended down a bit, Clinton is up and Trump is flat.


As new polls get released we can use this thread to update the latest.

[ProudModerate2]

Good information.
Thank you to those who have computed the averages.
8-)

[Crumpets]

Question: If Trump storms out of the first debate and vows to not do the second and third debates, does Pence still do the VP debate? Because a Kaine v. Weld debate is the one we actually deserve.

I suspect people would think Weld is Trump's running mate, though.

[kyc0705]

If Johnson can trend up a few of points (to maybe 13.5+), they might margin-of-error him in.

[Likely Voter]

If Johnson can trend up a few of points (to maybe 13.5+), they might margin-of-error him in.

14.5 maybe, 13.5 very very unlikely.

[Ebsy]

0 chance that Johnson will be in the debates.

[ProudModerate2]

0 chance that Johnson will be in the debates.

With McMullin now in the race, I think you are correct.

[kyc0705]

If Johnson can trend up a few of points (to maybe 13.5+), they might margin-of-error him in.

14.5 maybe, 13.5 very very unlikely.

It comes down to which is less of a headache for the CPD -- playing fast and loose with what "15%" means and effectively ignoring their own rules, or facing a tsunami of never ending criticism from people claiming they were always going to shut out everyone outside the two major parties, and that if Johnson had hit 15, they would have come up with some other reason to keep him out.

[Likely Voter]

15% is 15%, those are the rules. However, a guy from the CPD did say this...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So even if Johnson was at 14.99999999% the rules say he would not be included, but they are going to be a little flexible. But not 13.5% range flexible.

[Nym90]

One thing to keep in mind is that Perot technically didn't meet the threshold in 1992 but was still invited into the debates. I think he was at 12 percent or so average at the time (too lazy to look it up right now), and the 15 percent standard did exist then also. In 1996 however he was excluded as he was polling quite a bit lower.

[kyc0705]

15% is 15%, those are the rules. However, a guy from the CPD did say this...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So even if Johnson was at 14.99999999% the rules say he would not be included, but they are going to be a little flexible. But not 13.5% range flexible.

At the same time, it's not like there are six candidates polling near 15%. If he's, maybe low/mid 14%, he would be let in to at least one just to get everybody to shut up.

[Likely Voter]

The CPD didn't adopt the 15% rule until 2000....

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=overview

Also 1992 was very complicated in regards to Perot who was polling as high as 40% at one point. It had dropped to around 20% when he dropped out in mid July. Then he got back in in early October and there wasn't a lot of polling before the first debate but what little there was he was below 15%, but as noted they weren't using the 15% rule at the time.

And all of that above complication is why they adopted the simple 15% rule...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Likely Voter]

With the new Fox poll the CPD poll average is...

Clinton (D)   43.4
Trump (R)   37
Johnson (L)   9.6
Stein (G)   4.5

Johnson and Stein are down a bit.  

The other 4 polls are now about a month old so we should expect four new polls soon. Assuming all five do new polls within a week of Labor day (before or after) that may be it for Johnson as it is hard to imagine them going all back into the field just a couple weeks later, although maybe a couple will.

Also interesting to see that Fox is now including Stein like ABC, NBC and CNN. This could be because of the CPD announcement? It will be interesting to see if CBS follows suit and then all five will be 4-way.

[Likely Voter]

new avg with CNN poll (assuming they use LV when available)...

Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   38.6
Johnson (L)   9.2
Stein (G)   3.8

Notes:
- ABC, CBS and NBC polls all released over a month ago
- only CNN has LV option
- CBS poll doesn't include Stein
- if CPD chose to use just RV (so no apples to oranges comparisons) then Johnson would be at 9.6.
- If only ABC, CBS and NBC release new polls before the cutoff*, Johnson will need to average 19.66 in those three to get in.

*CPD hasn't given a specific cutoff time, according to their site it says " They will be applied in mid-September, 2016." If I had to guess, their cutoff will be September 19th, which is one week before the debate.

[Classic Conservative]

This is basically impossible at this point.