CPD announces 5 debate qualifying polls - UPDATE: Johnson average 7.0%

[F_S_USATN]

Update with CBS/NYT poll.

LV (when available)
Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   40.2
Johnson (L)   8.6
Stein (G)   3.4

RV
Clinton (D)   42.8
Trump (R)   37.6
Johnson (L)   10.0
Stein (G)   4.0

Notes:
- Average includes ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX and CNN
- With new CBS/NYT adding Stein, now all polls are 4-way
- FOX and NBC polls RV only (both are also pre Labor Day Wkd)

Thanks for the update.
Likely Voter, are we still missing an update that we expect (say by Tue Sept 20th) from one of the 5 media outlets/polls (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX and CNN) ?
Or does it look like we have them all, for CPD consideration and "deadline" ?

FOX in 45 min and maybe NBC/WSJ in the next week

[Ebsy]

So Johnson dropping like a rock in the polling average isn't exactly consistent with the narrative the idiots at Atlas have been furthering.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So Johnson dropping like a rock in the polling average isn't exactly consistent with the narrative the idiots at Atlas have been furthering.

It was difficult to predict that idiot Hillary would go full Hitler on Whites.

And... He's not dropping like a rock.

[Ebsy]

So Johnson dropping like a rock in the polling average isn't exactly consistent with the narrative the idiots at Atlas have been furthering.

It was difficult to predict that idiot Hillary would go full Hitler on Whites.

And... He's not dropping like a rock.

You use words but you certainly don't understand what they mean.

[amdcpus]

So Johnson dropping like a rock in the polling average isn't exactly consistent with the narrative the idiots at Atlas have been furthering.

It was difficult to predict that idiot Hillary would go full Hitler on Whites.

And... He's not dropping like a rock.

You use words but you certainly don't understand what they mean.

He has not dropped like a rock, that is probably false. All the previous national polls were RV which he does best with, and he maintains his average at 10% in the RV CPD polls.

[Ebsy]

Considering that the 5 poll average of support hasn't shifted all that much over the course of the tracking of it, Johnson's drop from 11 points before the conventions to not even 9 points now is significant. Maybe I was employing a bit of hyperbole with "dropping like a rock" but losing a couple points of support when your goal was to gain five points of support isn't a good thing.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Considering that the 5 poll average of support hasn't shifted all that much over the course of the tracking of it, Johnson's drop from 11 points before the conventions to not even 9 points now is significant. Maybe I was employing a bit of hyperbole with "dropping like a rock" but losing a couple points of support when your goal was to gain five points of support isn't a good thing.

There is though someone who really dropped like a rock after the conventions

[Likely Voter]

New average with FOX poll
Polls included (newest to oldest): FOX, CBS, ABC, CNN, NBC


LV (for all but NBC)
Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   40.4
Johnson (L)   8.4
Stein (G)   3.2

RV
Clinton (D)   42.8
Trump (R)   37.2
Johnson (L)   10.0
Stein (G)   4.0

[Likely Voter]

Right now all the polls but NBC are from September samples and have both LV and RV. I bet NBC will have a new poll soon, maybe by this weekend's Meet the Press. CNN might squeeze in a new one before the debate but we still don't know when the 'mid September' cutoff is. As I said before, I think it will be one week before the debate, which is next Monday. They have also not said if they will use LV or RV, but I suspect LV since that is the topline the media outlets themselves use.   

As for Johnson's trend, he got up to around 11% before the conventions, but has hovered around 10% since the conventions when you look at just the RV numbers. But like with Clinton (and Stein), he loses some with the LV screens, which all the September polls have now added, so that gives a sense of a downward trend. In reality he has basically been even for weeks without a real trend at all.

If the CPD had a 10% threshold there would be a lot of drama around Johnson making it in, but with 15% I just don't see any chance they loosen their standards this late in the game and of course no chance he gets even close to 15% in either LV or RV by next week.

[Andrew]

If Johnson can trend up a few of points (to maybe 13.5+), they might margin-of-error him in.

No chance of that.  Maybe if the CPD were nonpartisan, but it's bipartisan.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At this point, the CPD will be criticized no matter what they do. If they take Johnson at his word that including him in a debate will make him/Weld stop suing them and complaining about them on the trail, they'll be criticized for ridiculously breaking their own standards. If they exclude Johnson, they'll be criticized for setting their standards in a way that they knew would exclude him. They probably should just include him. Johnson does have a point in that the media is still ignoring his campaign half the time, that about half of registered voters still say "who?" when asked about their opinion of Johnson, and that there is no opportunity in terms of ability to promote your candidacy that is comparable to the debates (among opportunities that are theoretically available to third parties; obviously we'd never get wall to wall coverage of the libertarian convention). Also, during the town halls he seemed to use Weld as a crutch quite a bit, I'd like to see how he does when he can't do that.

[Likely Voter]

I don't think the CPD really cares about the lawsuit or what pundits say or even what candidates complain about. Look at how Trump said he was going to get the dates changed and they didn't budge an inch. Also, they set the 15% standard in 2000 so it has nothing to do with Johnson.  In fact moving it down to accommodate Johnson would show favoritism against Stein.  That being said maybe there will be talks before 2020 there may be discussion about reviewing the 15%, but no way do they suddenly change a week before. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ I'm not completely sure about that. After all, back when they reauthorized the standards last October, they felt it was necessary to write several paragraphs explaining why they weren't changing them. They didn't do that in 2012. And on Stein, about 80% of the country has no idea who she is, so.....

[Likely Voter]

These guys have a process. They will review it and release something in 2019 and I'm sure they will try to explain it then.  But the way they essentially dismissed Trump's complaint showed that they don't want to appear to be reacting to campaigns and to the active race. They want to be above the current campaign and appear completely impartial to it.  Major last minute changes would make a farace of their long methodical process. 

[Likely Voter]

Update with NBC/WSJ poll (All are now 4-way LV polls from September)

Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   41.0
Johnson (L)   8.2
Stein (G)   2.8



They have not announced when they will set the cutoff for the next debate but it could be this week or at the latest next week. So it doesn't look like Johnson is going to make that one either, but I will keep track of the averages regardless.

[Likely Voter]

Here is the last update before the first debate, now with the latest ABC poll.

Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   41.6
Johnson (L)   7.4
Stein (G)   2.6

They will probably send out the invites for the second debate this week. Friday would mark 10 days before the debate and for the first debate they announced 10 days before.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here is the last update before the first debate, now with the latest ABC poll.

Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   41.6
Johnson (L)   7.4
Stein (G)   2.6

They will probably send out the invites for the second debate this week. Friday would mark 10 days before the debate and for the first debate they announced 10 days before.

They did it after the VP debate in 2012.

[Ebsy]

Feeling very vindicated that my prediction that Johnson would drop like a rock in the polls as the election approached is coming to pass.

[Kleine Scheiße]

I've said it before, though not on here. If he didn't make it into the first debate, he won't make it into the second or third. Even if he did, the ticket has missed its shot at relevancy. There was never any risk of them winning, but now without even a forum for Weld to make any kind of statement between himself and Kaine/Pence, the ticket won't matter except for how their votes affect other candidates' turnouts.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Feeling very vindicated that my prediction that Johnson would drop like a rock in the polls as the election approached is coming to pass.

Glad you feel so vindicated we're left with the two sh**ttiest options.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Johnson holds steady at 7.4 with the new Fox Poll.

The CNN/ORC poll is close to a month old, other than that this is probably what his number will be when the CPD reevaluates sometime next week. The CNN/ORC poll would need to find Johnson to be at 45% for him to get in under the rules.

[Virginiá]

Feeling very vindicated that my prediction that Johnson would drop like a rock in the polls as the election approached is coming to pass.

Glad you feel so vindicated we're left with the two sh**ttiest options.

Oh, right, Johnson is definitely qualified for the job and definitely superior to Clinton. He'll just pick up a copy of foreign policy for dummies after he takes command of our military.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Feeling very vindicated that my prediction that Johnson would drop like a rock in the polls as the election approached is coming to pass.

Glad you feel so vindicated we're left with the two sh**ttiest options.

Oh, right, Johnson is definitely qualified for the job and definitely superior to Clinton. He'll just pick up a copy of foreign policy for dummies after he takes command of our military.

Not like a president has a whole cabinet of advisers or anything...

[Virginiá]

Not like a president has a whole cabinet of advisers or anything...

Leaning entirely on advisors is supposed to be a shaky, last-ditch comfort when an idiot is barreling towards the presidency. The candidate actually has to have an idea of what they are doing or they won't even be able to effectively manage all the advice they are being given. If the candidate doesn't know diddly, how will he/she know if they are getting bad advice? How is Johnson going to talk to world leaders when he has no idea about anything? They'll steamroll right over him.

Seriously that is like one of the weakest excuses for justifying putting a know-nothing into the freakin' White House.

[Storebought]

Praise the Deity that this buffoon didn't garner enough support to be included in the debates. He would have foiled Clinton's debate strategy and made Trump "look presidential" just by periodically reminding everyone of his own even deeper vapidity.