Since 2012, FL voter rolls grew 436K, 76% from non-whites

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/increase-in-minority-voters-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717

Since the 2012 presidential election, Florida’s voter rolls have grown by 436,000 — and only 24 percent of that increase is from non-Hispanic white voters

The number of Hispanic voters leaped by 242,000, which was 55% of the increase. Latinos are now 15.4% of the voter rolls, up from 13.9% overall in 2012.

While the proportion of non-white voters is growing in Florida, non-Hispanic whites still dominate the rolls. They’re 65% of the registered voters. However, that’s a decrease of 1.5% since 2012.

“Assuming Trump wins no more of the non-white vote than Mitt Romney did in 2012, he’s going to need to surpass 65% of the white vote in order to be able to win. And the last Republican who did that was Ronald Reagan in 1984,” Tyson said, pointing out that Reagan’s re-election that year was historic.

[Maxwell]

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

States like Florida, Nv and Co all have this in common...A growing hispanic population. All needed for republican to win the white house. And with the hispanic vote turning against republicans...Well, that isn't very likely.

[HillOfANight]

Florida as part of the South, also has a high Black %.

http://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2016/comm/electorate-profiles/cb16-tps40_voting_florida.html
14.8% of the population is black/eligible to vote in Florida, vs 8.7% in Nevada and 4.3% in Colorado.

There is expected to be a slight decrease in turnout and vote for the D due to this, which I think complicates the whole "take FL 2012, and add the new Hispanics to Clinton" theory.

[IceSpear]

[Xing]

B-b-b-but I remember seeing polls only three weeks ago showing Trump ahead in Florida!!!!

[FairBol]

B-b-b-but I remember seeing polls only three weeks ago showing Trump ahead in Florida!!!!

So much for that.  LOL

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

By 2024 Florida might be out of reach for the GOP. The Republicans are dangerously close to getting locked out of the EC for a generation. Once Dems start winning TX (at the Presidential level), it's over.

TX is a pipe dream until at least the 2030s at the top of the ballot. Downballot could be different though.

Republicans really do need to get back to the 45% of the Hispanic vote Bush got in 2004. If they can't, based on current trends and a bit of guesswork, this could be a reasonable map in 2050:

Which actually comes out to a bigger margin of victory in the EC than Obama '12. I know the electoral vote distribution will be different, but it's not going to change enough to matter - in fact it may even benefit the D's with this sort of alignment of the states.