Why is Clinton polling so low?

[Beet]

By most accounts Trump has run a very bad GE campaign. Yet Hillary is barely ahead of him. Why is this? I haven't heard of any major gaffes or mistakes made by her campaign. She should be ahead by about 20 points.

[Trapsy]

Clinton-Trump the two most unpopular presidential candidates in modern history.

[uti2]

By most accounts Trump has run a very bad GE campaign. Yet Hillary is barely ahead of him. Why is this? I haven't heard of any major gaffes or mistakes made by her campaign. She should be ahead by about 20 points.

Left-Right polarization thanks to W. and his partisan rhetoric with his 'faith' and 'values'. W. solidified the modern electoral map and polarized the country.

Biden is really one of the lost of the mohicans old school type politicians capable of appealing to both sides of the aisle. A rare dying breed.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Political polarization is much stronger now than it used to be. It would be hard to imagine any candidate winning with more than a 15% or so margin, even if one candidate is stellar and the other is utter garbage. Hillary Clinton has been around a while and is not perceived as flawless by the public, so her margin of victory, presuming she wins, is going to be less than that. Right now, she's leading by probably around 7% in the polling averages, which isn't exactly tiny.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

By most accounts Trump has run a very bad GE campaign. Yet Hillary is barely ahead of him. Why is this? I haven't heard of any major gaffes or mistakes made by her campaign. She should be ahead by about 20 points.

Oh lord.

Polarisation - personal ratings etc etc.

Will you stop fretting?

[Seriously?]

Because Donald Trump's moniker of Crooked Hillary has stuck. People don't trust her as far as they can throw her. The Berniebots are offering lukewarm support (if at all).

Republicans hate Hillary! no matter who the Republican nominee is. We remember the morally bankrupt administration of her poor excuse for an impeached, disbarred, multiple rapist husband. We don't want to go back to those shenanigans.

Plus the electorate is polarized and partisan.

[Devout Centrist]

By most accounts Trump has run a very bad GE campaign. Yet Hillary is barely ahead of him. Why is this? I haven't heard of any major gaffes or mistakes made by her campaign. She should be ahead by about 20 points.

Bullsh*t, this isn't the 80's. We live in a more partisan era. Mckinley's defeat of William Jennings Bryan looks small compared to the landslides of the '00's and '20's, but it was quite significant for its era.

[Beet]

Polarization doesn't explain why Obama got in the low 50s against Romney and Hillary is polling in the mid 40s. Their political positions are very similar, what they would do in office would probably be similar, their political coalitions should be similar. Yet if Obama were running, somehow I suspect he'd be leading by more.

[Devout Centrist]

Because Donald Trump's moniker of Crooked Hillary has stuck. People don't trust her as far as they can throw her. The Berniebots are offering lukewarm support (if at all).

Republicans hate Hillary! no matter who the Republican nominee is. We remember the morally bankrupt administration of her poor excuse for an impeached, disbarred, multiple rapist husband. We don't want to go back to those shenanigans.

Plus the electorate is polarized and partisan.

Edited out the crap.

[Devout Centrist]

Polarization doesn't explain why Obama got in the low 50s against Romney and Hillary is polling in the mid 40s. Their political positions are very similar, what they would do in office would probably be similar, their political coalitions should be similar. Yet if Obama were running, somehow I suspect he'd be leading by more.

Slightly more, only by a few points or so. There are undecideds because of the high unfavorable of the two candidates, but I suspect Johnson and Stein are getting way too much support at this point.

Regardless, being above 50% isn't necessarily indicative of a landslide. See 2004, for example.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polarization doesn't explain why Obama got in the low 50s against Romney and Hillary is polling in the mid 40s. Their political positions are very similar, what they would do in office would probably be similar, their political coalitions should be similar. Yet if Obama were running, somehow I suspect he'd be leading by more.

Look where Obama was actually polling at this point in the cycle in 12... his highest polling number head to head according to RCP was was 52% in September. He was routinely in the mid-high 40s.

[Hammy]

Simplest answer is the polls allow for undecideds to remain undecided. Obviously most of these people decide by the election (usually 50/50 for either candidate) though a few end up staying home, but because the undecideds aren't pushed is why we end up with things like 44-40 for example instead of 52-48. Hence why the margins are the most important thing to look at, especially prior to the debates.

[IceSpear]

beet pls

[Maxwell]

Because there is about 40% of the country that would vote for a feral komodo dragon over a Democrat, and similarly 40% of the country would do the same over a Republican.

[Speed of Sound]

Polarization doesn't explain why Obama got in the low 50s against Romney and Hillary is polling in the mid 40s. Their political positions are very similar, what they would do in office would probably be similar, their political coalitions should be similar. Yet if Obama were running, somehow I suspect he'd be leading by more.

Look where Obama was actually polling at this point in the cycle in 12... his highest polling number head to head according to RCP was was 52% in September. He was routinely in the mid-high 40s.

In fact, on this day in the 2012 election, Obama, the incumbent, was at 47.2%. Clinton is at 47.8%. Her temporarily hitting 50% in the mid summer is something that Obama never did in all of 2012. Obama's low-point was 45.5%, while Clinton's has been 43.1%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polarization doesn't explain why Obama got in the low 50s against Romney and Hillary is polling in the mid 40s. Their political positions are very similar, what they would do in office would probably be similar, their political coalitions should be similar. Yet if Obama were running, somehow I suspect he'd be leading by more.

Look where Obama was actually polling at this point in the cycle in 12... his highest polling number head to head according to RCP was was 52% in September. He was routinely in the mid-high 40s.

In fact, on this day in the 2012 election, Obama, the incumbent, was at 47.2%. Clinton is at 47.8%. Her temporarily hitting 50% in the mid summer is something that Obama never did in all of 2012. Obama's low-point was 45.5%, while Clinton's has been 43.1%.

Indeed and the final RCP number was 48.8% for Obama and he ended up nearly at 51%

[Lief 🗽]

She's winning by ten points. How much more do you want her to be leading by? wtf?

[Hermit For Peace]

She's winning by ten points. How much more do you want her to be leading by? wtf?

[Seriously?]

She's winning by ten points. How much more do you want her to be leading by? wtf?

No. She's not. Between 6-7 points is the RCP average with a RV/LV mix. In the LV polls, it's more like 5.

[Desroko]

Polarization doesn't explain why Obama got in the low 50s against Romney and Hillary is polling in the mid 40s. Their political positions are very similar, what they would do in office would probably be similar, their political coalitions should be similar. Yet if Obama were running, somehow I suspect he'd be leading by more.

Look where Obama was actually polling at this point in the cycle in 12... his highest polling number head to head according to RCP was was 52% in September. He was routinely in the mid-high 40s.

In fact, on this day in the 2012 election, Obama, the incumbent, was at 47.2%. Clinton is at 47.8%. Her temporarily hitting 50% in the mid summer is something that Obama never did in all of 2012. Obama's low-point was 45.5%, while Clinton's has been 43.1%.

This is a good response.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

She's winning by ten points. How much more do you want her to be leading by? wtf?

Hillary could be leading by LBJ '64 margins and Beet would still find an excuse to flip out about how DEMOCRATS ARE TOTALLY DOOMED YOU GUYS NOW BEGINS 1000 YEARS OF CONSERVATIVE DARKNESS

[Illiniwek]

The final result of this election is not going to be Clinton 45-trump 37. There is no need to panic now. Her final result will be higher than her August polling result.

[Desroko]

The final result of this election is not going to be Clinton 45-trump 37. There is no need to panic now. Her final result will be higher than her August polling result.

So "I Don't Know/No Answer" is not on the ballot?*




*Yes, NV, I know. Shut up.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

The final result of this election is not going to be Clinton 45-trump 37. There is no need to panic now. Her final result will be higher than her August polling result.

So "I Don't Know/No Answer" is not on the ballot?*




*Yes, NV, I know. Shut up.

Just pick Gary Johnson.  Get another voice in there.  Worried about a wasted vote? You're going to waste your vote if you vote R/D in a non-tossup state anyway since your vote won't matter there to turn the tide.  But voting Johnson this time could change a lot for elections in the future if nothing else.

[Desroko]

The final result of this election is not going to be Clinton 45-trump 37. There is no need to panic now. Her final result will be higher than her August polling result.

So "I Don't Know/No Answer" is not on the ballot?*




*Yes, NV, I know. Shut up.

Just pick Gary Johnson.  Get another voice in there.  Worried about a wasted vote? You're going to waste your vote if you vote R/D in a non-tossup state anyway since your vote won't matter there to turn the tide.  But voting Johnson this time could change a lot for elections in the future if nothing else.

1) Lolno, and 2) you missed the point of the subthread you're replying to. Clinton will win a majority because unlike a poll you can't vote for I Don't Know, and quixotic third party campaigns always decline as their potential voters start to take the question seriously.