Will Clinton win Madison County, AL?

[Del Tachi]

Madison County, Alabama:
2012:  58.5% Romney, 40.0% Obama
2008:  56.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
2004:  58.9% Bush, 40.2% Kerry 
2000:  54.9% Bush, 42.5% Gore

Madison County, Alabama (home to Huntsville) is the type of suburban, highly educated place in the South that Clinton will have to perform well in if she hopes to put states like Mississippi and South Carolina into play.  Can she win there this year?  It hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976.

I'll say that HRC actually narrowly wins Madison County this fall.  I think she has good chances to win Madison, Lee and Tuscaloosa counties, at least in Alabama.   

[Senator-elect Spark]

I don't think so. Hillary Clinton is not Obama, nor any other successful Democrat.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Certainly there are some things about Madison County that suggest that it is perhaps an area of Alabama where Trump may under-perform. The county was one of Trump's worse ones in the primary there, and was also Rubio's best in the state. The demographic points you make also seem persuasive: the kinds of well-educated people who work at the NASA facility there don't strike me as the kind of Republicans who would be likely to find Trump appealing. Still, that nearly 19% margin is a very heavy lift; it would be on par with some of the dramatic swings Obama got in Indiana in 2008, including that state's Madison County. I'm not willing to rule it out, but at this point I would probably bet on a mid-single-digits Trump win there, rather than a Trump loss.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't think so. Hillary Clinton is not Obama, nor any other successful Democrat.

The sooner you realize that this election is primarily about Donald Trump, and not primarily about Hillary Clinton, the sooner you will understand that the underlying dynamics of this race are not what you think they are.

[Vosem]

The margin seems to be a tad too much to overcome, especially in a state neither candidate is particularly contesting. Voted Trump, though I wouldn't be surprised by a massive swing here.

[Adam Griffin]

She'll do as well there as anybody since at least Gore percentage-wise, and will probably do better than he or any other Democrat in modern times in terms of margin of loss.

[Del Tachi]

Is Madison less or more likely than Lee or Tuscaloosa to flip to Clinton?

[Smash255]

Madison County, Alabama:
2012:  58.5% Romney, 40.0% Obama
2008:  56.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
2004:  58.9% Bush, 40.2% Kerry 
2000:  54.9% Bush, 42.5% Gore

Madison County, Alabama (home to Huntsville) is the type of suburban, highly educated place in the South that Clinton will have to perform well in if she hopes to put states like Mississippi and South Carolina into play.  Can she win there this year?  It hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976.

I'll say that HRC actually narrowly wins Madison County this fall.  I think she has good chances to win Madison, Lee and Tuscaloosa counties, at least in Alabama.   

Madison will certainly trend Dem and probably swings more than any other county in the state, but doubt it would be enough to flip it entirely.  High single digits is likely, with mid single  digits certainly possible, but flipping it entirely would probably take something around a 12-13 point national margin.