Map based on predicted winning % by state
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  Map based on predicted winning % by state
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Author Topic: Map based on predicted winning % by state  (Read 838 times)
Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« on: August 16, 2016, 04:13:10 PM »
« edited: August 16, 2016, 04:53:09 PM by Tilden's Tea Party »



Trump/Pence (R)- 270 EVs, 49.63%
Clinton/Kaine (D)- 268 EVs, 48.67%
Johnson/Weld (L)- 0 EVs, 1.70%

By Demographic:

White- 65% R / 35% D, T/O 65%
African-American- 90% D / 10% R, T/O 60%
Hispanic- 81% D / 19% R, T/O 57%
Asian-American- 74% D / 26% R, T/O 50%

If you'd like further clarification, you can visit my election percentage predictions here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GuAQcQlT9wW1e_fXp0JN-xojYv9I_NMbTSXot5Gktlk/edit#gid=0

Sources:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/election-polls-presidential-vote-groups.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecasting-the-2016-presidential-election-will-time-for-change-mean-time-for-trump/
https://punkrockor.com/2012/10/01/forecasting-the-presidential-election-using-regression-simulation-or-dynamic-programming/

This is subject to change and based on historical patterns, past polling, and my own personal predictions.

Just remember folks:

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/26/us/dukakis-lead-widens-according-to-new-poll.html

Dukakis had a 54-37 lead in July & a 49-42 lead in August of 1988, he would go on to eventually lose the election due to a poor debate performance amid other factors. It's not quite over yet.

DISCLAIMERSad Any attempted derailing of this thread will now be ignored. If you wish to debate, please debate me in the Political debate section.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2016, 04:14:09 PM »

Yeah I'd like a whole lot of clarification, pls.
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Wells
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2016, 04:15:02 PM »

This is subject to change and based on historical patterns, past polling, and my own personal predictions.

You lie.
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Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2016, 04:16:04 PM »

Yeah I'd like a whole lot of clarification, pls.

What's that.
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Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2016, 04:17:42 PM »

This is subject to change and based on historical patterns, past polling, and my own personal predictions.

You lie.

I used polling as a basis but it does not entirely consist of polling. I also used historical polling trends. This would all be subject to change as the election progresses but I have been keeping an eye on things.
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afleitch
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2016, 04:20:22 PM »

This is subject to change and based on historical patterns, past polling, and my own personal predictions.

You lie.

I used polling as a basis but it does not entirely consist of polling. I also used historical polling trends. This would all be subject to change as the election progresses but I have been keeping an eye on things.

What are the trends, what is the source and what regression model have you specifically applied?
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Holmes
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2016, 04:20:39 PM »

New Hampshire will be 51% for Trump, along with Montana? You'll trigger TNVolunteer.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2016, 04:21:55 PM »

1. The state polling is strongly in opposition to your prediction.
2. You have Utah and Alaska at 30%, but almost all other swing states in the 50's.
3. Michigan at 30%. Huh?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2016, 04:22:38 PM »

New Hampshire will be 51% for Trump, along with Montana? You'll trigger TNVolunteer.

My favorite part of that map is Maine, lol.
Clinton removing that sexual assault line was the last straw.
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Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2016, 04:31:47 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2016, 04:44:27 PM by Tilden's Tea Party »

This is subject to change and based on historical patterns, past polling, and my own personal predictions.

You lie.

I used polling as a basis but it does not entirely consist of polling. I also used historical polling trends. This would all be subject to change as the election progresses but I have been keeping an eye on things.

What are the trends, what is the source and what regression model have you specifically applied?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/election-polls-presidential-vote-groups.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecasting-the-2016-presidential-election-will-time-for-change-mean-time-for-trump/
https://punkrockor.com/2012/10/01/forecasting-the-presidential-election-using-regression-simulation-or-dynamic-programming/
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Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2016, 04:33:09 PM »

1. The state polling is strongly in opposition to your prediction.
2. You have Utah and Alaska at 30%, but almost all other swing states in the 50's.
3. Michigan at 30%. Huh?

1. It appears much closer than it seems.
2. Utah & Alaska are in the high 40s, I did it to show that it is below 50%.
3. Michigan is at 49%.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2016, 04:45:59 PM »

How the  does something *appear* differently than it *seems*??  Haha
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Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2016, 04:48:05 PM »

How the  does something *appear* differently than it *seems*??  Haha

Due to shifts in polling. Comparing RV to LV, the MOE, & factoring in undecideds.
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Skye
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2016, 05:30:03 PM »

This map sucks.
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2016, 05:35:17 PM »


Why is that, Texas?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2016, 06:15:30 PM »

How the  does something *appear* differently than it *seems*??  Haha

Due to shifts in polling. Comparing RV to LV, the MOE, & factoring in undecideds.

LOL, "appears" and "seems" in this sentence structure are literally synonyms.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2016, 06:34:53 PM »

Sorry mate, all you're doing to creating a map to give Trump a shot.

Clinton won't lose NV, she's not losing NH or ME-2. What else you got?
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Dabeav
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« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2016, 07:01:05 PM »

Not sure 65% of whites go Trump but in this scenario, if GJ wins Utah - the house could give him the Presidency.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2016, 07:26:06 PM »

Well, I know you want to predict a Trump win, and I can't tell you not to, so I'll just point out a few technical things...

1) If Hillary is winning Maine with 60% of the vote, there's no way she'd lose ME-02. The gap between ME-01 and ME-02 is usually 10-15 points, and while it could be larger this time, the gap would have to be at least 40 points for your map to happen, which is completely implausible.

2) I highly doubt that Trump is going to do significantly better in Alabama than Kentucky or Tennessee.

3) 52/53 seems very low for Hillary in OR/WA, unless you're predicting a lot of third party voting.

4) It seems odd that Illinois (Obama's home state) would swing toward Hillary, while the rest of the Midwest swings (sometimes strongly) away from her.

5) My own thoughts about Trump's chances in NV (more accurately, lack thereof), the gap between NV and AZ would probably be much larger than that.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2016, 07:27:04 PM »


I was tempted to give my own definition*, but here's Google's:
1. the action of making a statement or situation less confused and more comprehensible

*My definition would have been: explaining and simplifying any phrase or sentence
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Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2016, 07:37:11 PM »


I was tempted to give my own definition*, but here's Google's:
1. the action of making a statement or situation less confused and more comprehensible

*My definition would have been: explaining and simplifying any phrase or sentence

Lol, I didn't ask for a definition. I wanted to know what the question was
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2016, 07:45:26 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2016, 08:31:05 PM by LLR »

Keep living in fantasy land, kid.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2016, 08:04:15 PM »

This is subject to change and based on historical patterns, past polling, and my own personal predictions.

You lie.

I used polling as a basis but it does not entirely consist of polling. I also used historical polling trends. This would all be subject to change as the election progresses but I have been keeping an eye on things.

What are the trends, what is the source and what regression model have you specifically applied?

Is it not apparent to you that he is obviously using  'Longroom- Unbiased' the 'Unskewed Polls' site for 2016. You know .... the bs website that Likely Voter warned us about.
LOL.

Link to prior thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242601.0
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2016, 08:06:40 PM »

This is subject to change and based on historical patterns, past polling, and my own personal predictions.

You lie.

I used polling as a basis but it does not entirely consist of polling. I also used historical polling trends. This would all be subject to change as the election progresses but I have been keeping an eye on things.

What are the trends, what is the source and what regression model have you specifically applied?

Is it not apparent to you that he is obviously using  'Longroom- Unbiased' the 'Unskewed Polls' site for 2016. You know .... the bs website that Likely Voter warned us about.
LOL.

Link to prior thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242601.0


But the (((media))) obviously fake all their polls!!!!!
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Hammy
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« Reply #24 on: August 16, 2016, 08:17:47 PM »

This is the most desperate pitiful map I have ever seen.
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