Mitchell Research-MI: Clinton +10 in 4-way race
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Author Topic: Mitchell Research-MI: Clinton +10 in 4-way race  (Read 3487 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 16, 2016, 06:35:42 PM »
Clinton: 49%
Trump: 39%
Johnson: 9%
Stein: 5%

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/elections-2016/192382552-story
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2016, 06:45:59 PM »
So although the numbers seem reasonable, Mitchell is ranked a "D" pollster according to 538 ratings from what I understand.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2016, 06:59:42 PM »
Their last poll in Michigan was Clinton 40% Trump 34% with 27% undecided in mid-July, for comparison.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2016, 07:16:06 PM »
If even crappy Michigan pollsters are showing Clinton this far ahead, Trump has no chance here.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2016, 08:07:34 PM »
that's pretty great considering Michigan polls are horrible and very right-wing.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2016, 09:00:04 PM »
Kind of surprising how poorly Trump is doing here (keep in mind MI polling firms are bad and underestimate Democrats). I thought he'd be able to close the gap a little.
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Desroko
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2016, 09:13:20 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on August 16, 2016, 09:00:04 PM
Kind of surprising how poorly Trump is doing here (keep in mind MI polling firms are bad and underestimate Democrats). I thought he'd be able to close the gap a little.

Larger than average AA population, average educational attainment, and a substantial, motivated, high-turnout minority group in the Arab-American community. People think of Michigan as if it's one giant working class white auto garage, but that's a wildly outdated view. 
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2016, 09:45:21 PM »
Michigan, Likely Dem
Pennsylvania, Likely Dem
Colorado, Likely Dem
Virginia, Likely Dem

Where is Trump's path? He's almost mathematically eliminated
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2016, 09:49:21 PM »
Quote me on this - Michigan is a Safe Democratic state. Hillary's going to win it by more than Obama did in 2012. Say it with me.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2016, 09:56:10 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on August 16, 2016, 09:49:21 PM
Quote me on this - Michigan is a Safe Democratic state. Hillary's going to win it by more than Obama did in 2012. Say it with me.

Yeah I don't see an overall R trend in MI happening this year.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2016, 10:48:38 PM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 16, 2016, 09:56:10 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on August 16, 2016, 09:49:21 PM
Quote me on this - Michigan is a Safe Democratic state. Hillary's going to win it by more than Obama did in 2012. Say it with me.

Yeah I don't see an overall R trend in MI happening this year.

It might trend a little R. Or a little D. I think regardless of what happens, it'll just be noise and not indicative of anything, much to the disappointment of some Republicans.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2016, 10:51:01 PM »

This adds up to 103%
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Desroko
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« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2016, 10:53:37 PM »
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2016, 11:43:49 PM »

Typical Detroit voter fraud...
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2016, 11:45:33 PM »

I think the rounding only works if there are no undecideds, and Clinton is at 48.5, Trump 38.5, Johnson 8.5 and Stein 4.5, which adds up to 100, before rounding.  That's just bizarre - but so is every poll from a Michigan-only pollster, it seems.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2016, 11:49:31 PM »
They just vote harder in MI, surprised it isn't 110%.  Plus, I guess I have to be the nerd and point out it actually adds up to 102 not 103.
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Desroko
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« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2016, 11:49:38 PM »
Maybe. I can't find the release yet.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2016, 01:13:33 AM »

Still not as bad as the Rasmussen poll from 2010 as presented by Fox News that added up to 120%

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/08/fox-news-fuzzy-math-claim_n_384308.html
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Hammy
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« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2016, 01:24:00 AM »
Clinton at almost 50% in a four-way, will this finally put to rest the theory among some that Michigan is up for grabs?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2016, 07:27:09 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on August 16, 2016, 08:13:12 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on August 16, 2016, 08:07:34 PM
that's pretty great considering Michigan polls are horrible and very right-wing.

Yes, this state is clearly going to have an R trend this year, so this is about the best Clinton could ever hope for coming from one of the polls that had a Romney leading or statistically tied during summer 2012.

Michigan, like Pennsylvania, always looks like an over-ripe piece of fruit just about ready to drop into Republican hands during the summer of an election year, tantalizing Republicans to spend huge amounts of money on it. Then it closes Democratic. If anything it has started with a slight Democratic edge.

Michigan this year is beginning to look like Michigan in 2008 in political partisanship even with a far-better economy.   

   
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Mallow
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« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2016, 08:14:05 AM »
Quote from: Maxwell on August 16, 2016, 09:49:21 PM
Quote me on this - Michigan is a Safe Democratic state. Hillary's going to win it by more than Obama did in 2012. Say it with me.

I've been saying this (and Colorado) for months now, with a lot of pushback. MI and CO are pretty much locks barring a Trump landslide.
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Wisconsin+17
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« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2016, 08:19:52 AM »
Finally. RCP has a Clinton lead. 272. This election is over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
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windjammer
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« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2016, 08:50:52 AM »
She will win by 14 points in the end.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2016, 09:30:19 AM »
The kids are alright

Presidential Preference among 18-29 year olds:

Clinton: 60%
Johnson: 16%
Stein: 10%
Undecided: 9%
Trump: 5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MI_8-16_FOX_2_Detroit_-_Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_8-16-16_A.pdf - page 7
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2016, 10:47:54 AM »
Also, can someone enter this into the database? I would, but I don't have access right now.
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