IN-Monmouth: Trump +11

[heatcharger]

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/

Trump - 47%
Clinton - 36%
Johnson - 10%

Conducted August 13-16. 403 LV.

Stein isn't on the ballot here so that's why she's not listed I assume.

[F_S_USATN]

S: Bayh 48 Young 41
G: Holcomb 42 Gregg 41

[Fargobison]

Johnson is at 10%

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think this poll is slightly pro-Republican, just like Monmouth's Florida poll was slightly pro-Democrat.
Romney won Indiana by 10 and Trump is underperforming in all red states.

[Xing]

Figured Indiana wouldn't be that competitive, but the downballot numbers aren't bad.

[The Other Castro]

-About the same number of Republicans back Trump (84%) as Democrats who back Clinton (87%).  Independents are divided at 38% for Trump and 34% for Clinton, with 18% supporting Johnson.

-Trump is doing better than Romney did among Indiana voters without a college degree (54% to 33% compared to Romney's 53%-45% margin), but is doing worse among college graduates (39% to 40% for Clinton compared to Romney's 55%-43% win over Obama).

-Just 33% of Indiana voters have a favorable view of Trump with 54% holding an unfavorable opinion of him.  Clinton's ratings are slightly worse at 28% favorable and 62% unfavorable.  On the other hand, most voters (54%) approve of the job Pence is currently doing as governor and just 35% disapprove.  A majority (58%) also say that agreeing to be Trump's running mate has not affected their opinion of Pence, although 23% say they now think less highly of him and 17% think more highly of him.

[Devils30]

Indiana and Ohio will not change much. The big Democratic gains are coming out west and on the southeastern coast.

[Seriously?]

From Monmouth of all places.

Indiana clearly wants to Make America Great Again!

[Flake]

From Monmouth of all places.

Indiana clearly wants to Make America Great Again!

So strange that this is one of the places where downballot Republicans are actually doing *significantly* worse than Trump.

[john cage bubblegum]

When you look at Indiana, demographically, culturally, and by educational attainment, it really should be a good Trump state.  While Trump +11 "feels" a few points too high, who knows, maybe it's not. 

We're not gonna get a ton of public polling out of Indiana, so we have to take what we can get.  As long as Bayh can keep running 15 points ahead of Clinton, I'm happy.

[Bismarck]

Indiana has a political culture I believe different than the national stereotypes. The democrats are still most strongly associated ( other than Lake County) with poorer folks in southern Indiana. Places like the Wabash Valley vote way less republican than you might expect, and I assume Trump is making big gains with that type of voter. I also imagine he is making gains in the rust belt in places like Anderson that are usually about even. It just depends how much he drops among lean R suburbanites really.

[Skye]

Wow... color me surprised. I thought IN would be competitive at this point.

Me too. If SC can fall, so can IN again.

[President Johnson]

Hillary doesn't need the state at all. She'll outperform Obama's 2012 EC margin easily. But good the see that Bayh is up that much. A Democratic senate is still within reach.

[dspNY]

Evidence that Pence is helping Trump in IN, just like Kaine is helping Hillary in VA. The only problem for Trump is that Virginia is a swing state and Indiana is usually not

[IceSpear]

From Monmouth of all places.

Indiana clearly wants to Make America Great Again!

You know Republicans are in trouble when they're celebrating the fact that they're ahead in Indiana...

[ProudModerate2]

I never had high hopes that Hillary could do well here, so I'm not surprised.
But we still have about 11 weeks ....

[Erich Maria Remarque]

From Monmouth of all places.

Indiana clearly wants to Make America Great Again!

You know Republicans are in trouble when they're celebrating the fact that they're ahead in Indiana...

[NOVA Green]

It's hard to argue with a A+ pollster, although the margins seem a bit high considering that this would put Indiana to the Right of Texas at this point!!!

What it does seem to indicate is that Trump is significantly over-performing in swingier areas of Southern Indiana, as well as small and medium sized manufacturing areas scattered throughout the state.

The most interesting item (Aside from the Senate race polling) is Clinton's performance among college-educated voters, which actually look good for the "beltway" counties surrounding Indianapolis that were ground-zero of the "country club" rebellion against Pence when he signed an anti-LGBT law in '14 that caused a virtual collapse of business tourism, organized sporting events, etc....

[IceSpear]

This poll does look pretty R-friendly. It has 26% Dems even though it was 34% Dems in 2012. That's more good news for Bayh than it is for Clinton though.

[pbrower2a]

Indiana is typically about R+12 to R+15 in Presidential races (2008 was an obvious exception).

A Republican nominee for President winning Indiana by 10% is losing nationwide.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

My question is why are Pence's approval ratings so high and his disapprovals so low?


Putting my personal hatred of him aside, he is a very polarizing figure and only 36% disapproval is kind of hard to believe, considering just a few months ago he was slightly negative with both approve and disapprove being in the low-40s.

[pbrower2a]

This poll does look pretty R-friendly. It has 26% Dems even though it was 34% Dems in 2012. That's more good news for Bayh than it is for Clinton though.

As it is, the Senate seat is more important to the Democrats than are the 11 electoral votes of Indiana.  So it was in 2012.

[RR1997]

It looks like I was correct

[RFayette]

It looks like I was correct

Indiana was always prime territory for a swing to Trump.  It has just the right combination of residual rural Dems and depressed former factory towns.  The Indy suburbs are hardly enough to compensate.

I wonder why he's underperforming in MO, though? I always thought that that state would be more Trump-ish than IN.

He's clearly hurting on the Plains based on the Kansas polling and Clinton's investment in Omaha when she hasn't gone up in GA/AZ/IN.  My guess is that Republicans in the western Cruz parts of the state are staying home, and the KC suburbs are swinging pretty hard to Clinton.

This.  It's also interesting to note that Trump did very, very well in Northwest Indiana in the GOP primaries, so while he will endure lossses in Indy suburbs, I think NWI won't shift against him, and may even tip a bit in his favor.