It looks like I was correct 
Indiana was always prime territory for a swing to Trump. It has just the right combination of residual rural Dems and depressed former factory towns. The Indy suburbs are hardly enough to compensate.
I wonder why he's underperforming in MO, though? I always thought that that state would be more Trump-ish than IN.
He's clearly hurting on the Plains based on the Kansas polling and Clinton's investment in Omaha when she hasn't gone up in GA/AZ/IN. My guess is that Republicans in the western Cruz parts of the state are staying home, and the KC suburbs are swinging pretty hard to Clinton.
This. It's also interesting to note that Trump did very, very well in Northwest Indiana in the GOP primaries, so while he will endure lossses in Indy suburbs, I think NWI won't shift against him, and may even tip a bit in his favor.
